As mentioned in the previous post I had to make some tough decisions as to which algorithms had to be included in Version 1 and did the same regarding the interface in order for us to reach initial deployment of our betting program.
In continuance of yesterday’s post description of The Base Structure of Track, Class, Distance, Surface and Field Size using the same analogy with the Track GP, Class MSW, Distance 5 Furlongs, on the Turf Surface in a Field of 10, except this time the algorithm is not specific to Trainer Bill Mott and not specific to Jockey Junior Alvarado, rather an analysis is on all, in other words overall. Meaning every 5 furlong MSW turf race at GP in a 10 horse field is figured for every runner that left the gate and finished the race for every post position, for every MSW purse value (as purse size is the actual indicator of class), for every 5 furlong race on the turf, for every surface condition (like soft, heavy, good, firm), for all field sizes. And all these overall variables are also evaluated through the program where then it is designed to add positive results to a rating or subtract negative ones from the final rating when assigning a rating for each runner in each race. This is essentially a hierarchy where the program code perceives from all the input for each individual race who has the most positives in today’s race to finish 1st, or 2nd or 3rd and all the way through the field.
Then all these variables must be verified and this is one of the reasons why we required a Mathematician.
Using this same GP race conditions for you to see why at this early stage of Version 1 we will be walking, walking and walking more before we run;
Track GP, Class MSW, Distance 5 Furlongs, on the Turf Surface in a Field of 10, first this new algorithm is written not specific to the Trainer nor specific to the Jockey, and we write one asking how pedigree performs; the age this pedigree wins, the distance this pedigree prefers and then when lasix is administered, when bute is, when blinkers are put on, when blinkers are taken off, when the track is good, etc and then when all these variables are calculated overall , the exact same algorithm is written for how each specific trainer performs with this pedigree, how each specific jockey performs with this pedigree, how each jockey-trainer performs with this pedigree, how each jockey, trainer and owner perform with this pedigree, if the owner is the trainer how does the pedigree perform and then from here we run the same base algorithms for age, gender, when a workout is applied, when a workout is within so many days of a race…… This is all the information Ed and I were putting together for the developers all those months that we were quiet. Now I am able to share a personal note of the anxiety I felt because during this time Ed’s health was on a decline and I feared that we would not get all of his brain to the developers before he passed and I know first hand that Ed held on for us. So we could make this happen. He had unmeasurable strength and self discipline like no other.
In addition and included in The Base Structure are Ed’s Layoff, Claim, Debut and Won Last Race stats 🙂 This is our smoking gun so to speak because every algorithm written for every possible present variable in racing like mentioned above is also applied to every one of Ed’s applicable statistics.
Next post will be about the betting programs Interface.