Month: June 2021

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While We Patiently Wait ….

for the mathematician to position us to the same 70% win percentage reached for an affective herd immunity, I’d like to share with you where we are as well as where we will soon be.

The primary reason I haven’t been able to update regularly on the mathematician’s progress is simply due to my limited knowledge of this profession. Though without question I fully understand it’s significance. Ed emphasize it’s importance daily saying that Benter’s success would not have been possible without the mathematician and added these validations will be the reason for our venture’s success too.

I can say that once these are integrated our Potential Daily Bet Summary will go from a 30 to 35% hit rate to a 70 to 75% hit rate and knowing this is why I’m able to wait. Though admittedly I have an occasion of chomping at the bit because what we have unfolding before us warrants such excitement. 🙂

Since I’m unable to relay his work adequately I’m copying and pasting my recent conversation with him after he received the additional requested data, and then the mathematicians reply to our status inquiry:

Question: Could you let me know when you know if the model’s predictive power was improved after incorporating the new columns or if not and because I’m not familiar with your field I’m not certain what saving the model boosting for version 2 means and should this be the case could you write to me what this entails including time wise.

Reply: Basically, the model I have built with the previous data (data I had a few months ago) was predicting winners only 20% of the time.  With the additional data, I’m hoping that this percentage will increase. 
However, it’s not as easy as just plugging in the new data.  I need to do data pre-processing before data goes into the model.  And to find the best model parameters, I wrote code that will scan for the best parameters. It’s called tuning the model.  That usually runs for a day or two on my laptop. It’s quite compute intensive.  Sorry that this takes so long. But this is very typical of modeling. 
———-

I hesitate sharing this because of the context it’s written in and all the variables surrounding could cause some confusion and of course I would not be able to answer due to lack of knowledge in this field. That said when reading his reply, understand that this 20% he is mentioning is not pertinent to our end result, only pertinent to his knowing the next step he must take in order to reach the 70% hit rate.

Once he knows his course of action so to speak he will then be able to fill us in time wise and then once he hands his validations back to the developers they said it will take them 7 to 10 days to integrate and once they do, we will be ready to role at the quarter pole and from everyone that is working on our projects enthusiasm it’s safe to say we are close and will be getting into the starting gate very very soon.

And other than what we bet during the Triple Crown, I’m waiting to invest in bets. Why take a stab at a 30 to 35% win rate that results in a 65 to 70% loss rate when we can patiently wait for a 70 to 75% win rate on our side.

Also would like to share a funny story with you that I forgot about until re-watching the Automatics videos Ed and I made.

In the late 90s we went to Saratoga for one week during their meet and this is when Ed was a guest on the Capital OTB networks television show Track Facts and was also the time when Bill Mott-Allan Paulson-Jerry Bailey were at the height of their career.

It was when Ed predominantly bet his 4 + 30s (hadn’t yet tracked his Automatics), which stands for a trainer has 4 wins or more plus a 30% win rate or higher on a trainer move and Mott had several Layoff moves with this percentage.

Now to put this into focus you have to know several things about Ed. First if a trainer, no matter how much Ed respected them, fell below their 30% hit rate at Any time, Ed would pass the bet and this periodically happened with Mott and also with other trainers like Neil Drysdale on the West Coast. And many times when he passed a bet because the trainer’s percentage fell to 29%, the trainer would win even so. Where most handicappers would be upset with themselves for passing a winner, not Ed. He used to say, great when they hit cause that win most likely would bring the trainer’s percentages back to their 30% hit rate and he’ll be able to bet them again.

Second thing to note about Ed’s discipline is that he would look through 5 race cards a day and after applying all his filters he would only average 4 bets a day which afforded him an average of 1 win out of every 4 bet.

Well…. during this era Mott supplied Ed with a lot of bets and because Mott-Paulson almost exclusively employed Jerry Bailey as their rider, he was often on the bets Ed would make. And it sure seemed like every time Ed placed a bet on this combo that Bailey bobbled at the gate. He always made a spectacular move driving down the stretch but came up short and Ed attributed this to his not getting out of the gate. This can weigh on you when you you’re betting $200 to win every bet you make and with only having an average of 4 bets a day, Mott-Bailey was often a discussion when Ed was a guest on Track Facts.

Though Ed did not have any personal animosities towards Bailey, he certainly was the cause of his frustration as Ed truly believed Motts horse would have won had Bailey gotten out of the gate.

Well several years later, after we moved to Florida and stopped our annual visit to Saratoga unbeknownst to us, one Saturday Saratoga gave away free Jerry Bailey bobbleheads to all patrons attending the track. And a few weeks later Ed received two packages in the mail, both from friends who went to Saratoga on this day and guess what was in the package…. Yes, the Jerry Bailey bobblehead and we got such a laugh out of this. So when we made the videos he was certain to have his bobblehead in the background which you’ll note next time you view his Automatics video on YouTube.

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The Superfecta Bet and Key Horses for Win-Place-Show

Ed kept records of his 4 + 30 (4 wins or more plus a 30% win rate or higher) and Automatic (10 wins or more plus a 50% win rate or higher) statistics finishing positions and this information gave evidence of his stats showing they were in the money, win, place and show on average of 55 to 60% of the time.

This is the reason Ed and I were able to successfully bet Superfectas. Through the use of these statistics Ed became a master at Win Betting and through the stability that Ed’s win rate offered, I was afforded the luxury of exploring how to bet exotics wagers and became an expert at deciphering and constructing these bets.

Once the program includes the algorithms we’re anticipating, the daily potential bet list will publish winners with an upwards of 70% accuracy and when we are rolling, our wagers will predominately be on win, place, and or show (70 to 75%) because that will be our stability, our foundation, with the remainder on exotic bets that at this juncture I’m anticipating will consist mostly of Exactas and Daily Doubles and occasionally when the stats scream to do so we’ll bet other exotics such as serial wagers like pick 3s, 4s, 5s and 6s, trifectas, superfectas, and E5s.

Thanks to a very good friend and one of our stockholders we are able to share this Superfecta Video right side up instead of upside down 🙂 and since we have two more videos that I’d like to share with you right side up as well; one about Ed’s Automatic Bets and the other about the way I select exotic wagers, he’s agreed to right side up these too. Here’s the link to the Superfecta:

https://youtu.be/yXay2RMo4AU

I’m also happy to share that the most important process to our success is now in motion since the rest of the data the mathematician required to continue with the validation has been delivered. Yeah!

Though this is the one area that I have no idea how to explain, Ed repeatedly stated as we were logging all the necessary items for the developers to write algorithms for that the mathematicians validation is crucial to our success and to the program producing at least 70% accuracy in the ratings. And he equally stressed that the time it takes for the validation is essential in order for us to achieve this success. That said, the mathematician is going to get with me early next week to give me an approximate time line and from here we’ll add another week to 10 days for the developers to do what they need to do for the integration and then we’ll be ready to roll. So what this means is we’ve passed the final turn and are closing down the stretch and just need to apply a little more patience before we cross the finish line as the winner and in the scope of things we’re closing fast.

In the meantime while we patiently wait, I’ll covert the rest of the videos and let you know when these are ready to view.

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Belmont Bets

Happy Belmont Day Everyone.

You’re welcome to make your own wager on these bets that I’m making for Zen today. Good Luck Everyone and Safe Rides for all.

Belmont Park Race 2

$0.50 SPR on 4,6/9/1,2,4-10/1,2,4-10 $42
$0.50 SPR on 4,6/1,2,4-10/9/1,2,4-10 $42
$0.50 SPR on 4,6/1,2,4-10/1,2,4-10/9 $42
$0.20 SPR on 1,2,4-10/4,6/9/1,2,4-10 $16.80
$0.20 SPR on 1,2,4-10/4,6/1,2,4-10/9 $16.80
$0.20 SPR on 9/4,6/1,2,4-10/1,2,4-10 $16.80
——–

Belmont Park Race 4
$0.20 SPR on 2,3/1-9/1,4/1-9 $33.60
$0.20 SPR on 2,3/1-9/1-9/1,4 $33.60
$0.20 SPR on 1-9/2,3/1-9/1,4 $33.60
$0.20 SPR on 1-9/2,3/1,4/1-9 $33.60
$0.50 PK4 on 1-9/1,2,4-6/6/3-7 $112.50

Belmont Park Race 6

$0.50 SPR on 6/1,12/1,2,4-6,8,10-12/1,2,4-6,8,10-12 $42
$0.20 SPR on 6/1,2,4-6,8,10-12/1,10,12/1,2,4-6,8,10-12 $25.20
$0.20 SPR on 6/1,2,4-6,8,10-12/1,2,4-6,8,10-12/1,10,12 $25.20
$0.20 SPR on 1,2,4-6,8,10-12/6/1,2,4-6,8,10-12/1,10,12 $25.20
$0.20 SPR on 1,2,4-6,8,10-12/6/1,10,12/1,2,4-6,8,10-12 $25.20

Belmont Park Race 8

$0.10 SPR on 4,8,10/4,8,10/1,3-10,12/1,3-10,12 $33.60
$0.10 SPR on 4,8,10/1,3-10,12/3,8,10/1,3-10,12 $39.20
$0.10 SPR on 4,8,10/1,3-10,12/1,3-10,12/1,3 $33.60
$0.10 SPR on 1,3-10,12/4,8,10/3,8,10/1,3-10,12 $39.20
$0.10 SPR on 1,3-10,12/1,4,8,10/1,3-10,12/1,3 $39.20

$0.50 PK4 on 4,5,8,10/1-6/4,9,10/2,4,7,8 $144

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