for the mathematician to position us to the same 70% win percentage reached for an affective herd immunity, I’d like to share with you where we are as well as where we will soon be.
The primary reason I haven’t been able to update regularly on the mathematician’s progress is simply due to my limited knowledge of this profession. Though without question I fully understand it’s significance. Ed emphasize it’s importance daily saying that Benter’s success would not have been possible without the mathematician and added these validations will be the reason for our venture’s success too.
I can say that once these are integrated our Potential Daily Bet Summary will go from a 30 to 35% hit rate to a 70 to 75% hit rate and knowing this is why I’m able to wait. Though admittedly I have an occasion of chomping at the bit because what we have unfolding before us warrants such excitement. 🙂
Since I’m unable to relay his work adequately I’m copying and pasting my recent conversation with him after he received the additional requested data, and then the mathematicians reply to our status inquiry:
Question: Could you let me know when you know if the model’s predictive power was improved after incorporating the new columns or if not and because I’m not familiar with your field I’m not certain what saving the model boosting for version 2 means and should this be the case could you write to me what this entails including time wise.
Reply: Basically, the model I have built with the previous data (data I had a few months ago) was predicting winners only 20% of the time. With the additional data, I’m hoping that this percentage will increase.
However, it’s not as easy as just plugging in the new data. I need to do data pre-processing before data goes into the model. And to find the best model parameters, I wrote code that will scan for the best parameters. It’s called tuning the model. That usually runs for a day or two on my laptop. It’s quite compute intensive. Sorry that this takes so long. But this is very typical of modeling.
I hesitate sharing this because of the context it’s written in and all the variables surrounding could cause some confusion and of course I would not be able to answer due to lack of knowledge in this field. That said when reading his reply, understand that this 20% he is mentioning is not pertinent to our end result, only pertinent to his knowing the next step he must take in order to reach the 70% hit rate.
Once he knows his course of action so to speak he will then be able to fill us in time wise and then once he hands his validations back to the developers they said it will take them 7 to 10 days to integrate and once they do, we will be ready to role at the quarter pole and from everyone that is working on our projects enthusiasm it’s safe to say we are close and will be getting into the starting gate very very soon.
And other than what we bet during the Triple Crown, I’m waiting to invest in bets. Why take a stab at a 30 to 35% win rate that results in a 65 to 70% loss rate when we can patiently wait for a 70 to 75% win rate on our side.
Also would like to share a funny story with you that I forgot about until re-watching the Automatics videos Ed and I made.
In the late 90s we went to Saratoga for one week during their meet and this is when Ed was a guest on the Capital OTB networks television show Track Facts and was also the time when Bill Mott-Allan Paulson-Jerry Bailey were at the height of their career.
It was when Ed predominantly bet his 4 + 30s (hadn’t yet tracked his Automatics), which stands for a trainer has 4 wins or more plus a 30% win rate or higher on a trainer move and Mott had several Layoff moves with this percentage.
Now to put this into focus you have to know several things about Ed. First if a trainer, no matter how much Ed respected them, fell below their 30% hit rate at Any time, Ed would pass the bet and this periodically happened with Mott and also with other trainers like Neil Drysdale on the West Coast. And many times when he passed a bet because the trainer’s percentage fell to 29%, the trainer would win even so. Where most handicappers would be upset with themselves for passing a winner, not Ed. He used to say, great when they hit cause that win most likely would bring the trainer’s percentages back to their 30% hit rate and he’ll be able to bet them again.
Second thing to note about Ed’s discipline is that he would look through 5 race cards a day and after applying all his filters he would only average 4 bets a day which afforded him an average of 1 win out of every 4 bet.
Well…. during this era Mott supplied Ed with a lot of bets and because Mott-Paulson almost exclusively employed Jerry Bailey as their rider, he was often on the bets Ed would make. And it sure seemed like every time Ed placed a bet on this combo that Bailey bobbled at the gate. He always made a spectacular move driving down the stretch but came up short and Ed attributed this to his not getting out of the gate. This can weigh on you when you you’re betting $200 to win every bet you make and with only having an average of 4 bets a day, Mott-Bailey was often a discussion when Ed was a guest on Track Facts.
Though Ed did not have any personal animosities towards Bailey, he certainly was the cause of his frustration as Ed truly believed Motts horse would have won had Bailey gotten out of the gate.
Well several years later, after we moved to Florida and stopped our annual visit to Saratoga unbeknownst to us, one Saturday Saratoga gave away free Jerry Bailey bobbleheads to all patrons attending the track. And a few weeks later Ed received two packages in the mail, both from friends who went to Saratoga on this day and guess what was in the package…. Yes, the Jerry Bailey bobblehead and we got such a laugh out of this. So when we made the videos he was certain to have his bobblehead in the background which you’ll note next time you view his Automatics video on YouTube.