Month: April 2021

CD Potential Bet Summary for Friday 4/30/21

CD Potential Bet Summary for Kentucky Derby 5/01/21

Well…. at least we got the third 5 out of 6 out of the way. I heard my Mother’s voice echoing when things happen in 2s they always happen in 3s and though this is our third close call and we didn’t get beat by the 7 horse winning, instead we did got beat by the 7 horse losing so that’s is the third 7 too.

Maybe this means we’ll win the next one but if not, I know this…. We’ll keep trying, especially once the program has all the anticipated algorithms added in by the end of this month. Looking forward to that day which will be here soon.
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I made the following Pick 6 wagers for us today at GP

Gulfstream Race 5

$0.20 PK6 on 1-7,9-11/1-6/1/7/4/1,2,5-7,9-11 $96
$0.20 PK6 on 1-7,9-11/5/1/7/1-3,5/1,2,5-7,9-11 $64

and I made the following Pick 4 wager for us today at KEE

Keeneland Race 2

$0.50 PK4 on 2-6/1,3,5,7,9/1,3,5,7/5 $50
$0.50 PK4 on 1/1,3,5,7,9/1,3,5,7/1,2,3,4,5 $50

This happens to be one of my favorite times of the year to look for bets and most likely not for the same reason everyone else loves this season because my focus is not particularly on the 3 year olds leading up to the Derby. My focus is on the horse’s that have returned home after running at the two winter specialty meets; Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds.

Most people are not aware as we weren’t until we tracked Jockey-Trainer stats that Gulfstream has two, very separate, very different meets. They have their specialty winter meet that actually begins some time in November when all the trainers from the East, the Mid-West and the West coast ship down and these trainers only ship their best runners to compete with the other best runners in our United States. These winter meets close when Keeneland opens because this is where all the trainer’s that are fortunate to have young horses making their mark in history go to compete and then the remainder return to their home base tracks.

Then why should this matter and open up betting opportunities at all the tracks these horses return to? Well it’s wonderfully simple because the trainers that ship their horses to these specialty meets, only ship their best because they are competing against the best for purses that are worth shipping their best runners for. So when they return to their home tracks these horses are back competing with the horse’s that did not ship to these specialty meets which gives these runners a huge, huge edge when they are back home, no matter their odds.

So what’s the best way to bet these horses when they return to their home track?

The way I bet these is when I have a stat in a race or if I am looking to make a serial race wager, I either add the horses that ran at these specialty tracks to my wager with the stat horse or if I’m faced with making a decision whether to choose one stat over another and then I noticed that one of these ran at either GP or FG, I usually choose that horse over the one that did not ship and as mentioned yesterday about the more often than not, this is the correct choice to make.

More often than not still means that the horse you did not select can win and the choice you made in the race will be beaten, however staying with the consistency of any move such as this, more often than not you will win and I’ve hit these with amazing mutual results.

The best way to show how I came to understand this powerful move is to share about the first hit I had betting these horses from GP and FG because it was a hit for 7K that was shared with friends we were meeting at the GP racetrack after the specialty meet closed.

This was years ago, when we lived in Florida and the Pick-4 had a $1 base wager at Woodbine racetrack. Anyone who is serious about racing knows that you try not to go to the track with friends who don’t regularly attend, however Ed’s reputation was unavoidable so we’d make exceptions once in a great while because they were friends and they agreed to front all the money for the bets.

They expected Ed or actually mostly me to decide the plays we make because I was the one who bet exotics while Ed remained focused on wins. Since nothing jumped off the page at us at GP that day, we bet mostly on simulcasting and on this day I had a pick 4 wager figured at Woodbine and in the middle of this serial wager, leg 3 to be exact, I singled a horse that ran at GP during their winter meet. This horse won and paid $76 for win. Fortunately we had All in the last leg so everyone knew we hit but none of us had any idea of what it would pay. Since Ed and I enjoyed sitting outside as we always did when we went to live racing, we really had no interest going inside on such a beautiful day.

But, our friends who held the tickets for every wager we’d make knew we were sitting on a Signer and understandably couldn’t contain their enthusiasm so they decided to stand the full 30 minutes in front of a Woodbine screen to see first hand who won the last leg. They couldn’t get back to our picnic table fast enough to let us know a 17/1 shot just hit.

Needless to say Ed and I went inside with everyone to cash and were especially happy to discover that even though the hit was for over $7K the track did not take out any taxes because they said Woodbine was in Canada so we did not have to pay. Wasn’t aware of that at the time but there were 7 happy people, including us when we cashed and each received over $1,000 bucks. Then when we got home I looked again at the bet and it was then that I noticed the horse that won the last leg, the horse that was 17/1 ran at FGs winter meet 🙂

Nothing like a big pay day to remember what made it happen and right now there are betting opportunities like these all over the place.

I began writing this before the last leg of the Pick 6 ran at KEE today because I was going to write about the reason I chose to bet a Pick 6 at Keeneland which was because of the last 2 legs; race 9 and particularly race 10 jumped off the page at me. Then when I started to delve I noticed trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr had 2 separate runners that I viewed each had a legitimate chance to win within this multiple pick 6 race wager so I decided it was worth a potential bet.

What is Either Or you may ask? Well it’s a more often than not rule of thumb that I have on my roster. Though I go into some details regarding this play in my book Signers it was published back in 2004 (which BTW you can download for free at the above link), I’ve since learned to take this to another level and discovered a very cost effective way to consistently hit multiple race wagers for an extremely affordable investment amount. In other words You do not have to bet a lot to win a lot. And you can even add in those horse’s that you don’t have because it increases the cost of the ticket yet cause concern due to the cost of all runners on one ticket where betting an Either or you get a single in each leg by betting the either or trainer in two of the legs on two different tickets.

Before I can really explain I must share with you what Ed and I labeled our rule of thumbs and one of these was more often than not rule of thumb. Which encompasses quite a few scenarios on a conscious list that whenever we identify one of these moves, we stick to our rule of thumb. The first one that comes to mind is because it happens daily and that is, Ed and I never bet a horse that just broke its’ Maiden in a Maiden Claiming race unless today’s race is on a different surface (meaning the last race was on the dirt and today’s race is on the turf) and only consider if the horse is bred for today’s conditions, or if the last race was on a fast track and today’s surface is muddy and this horse is bred for the mud, or if the horse had a break (defined as a layoff) of 45 days or longer and the trainer shows capable of winning on this move. This rule of thumb is applied because more often than not, the maiden claim winner throws in a clunker if they run a race right after the maiden win. Purely because the maiden claimer is now running against non maidens who are more “seasoned” so to speak and by sticking to this rule of thumb, of never betting maiden claimers right after they win more often than not by consistently making this decision to stick to this rule of thumb, we win. 🙂

I emphasis that passing bets on a maiden claimer right after they win does not necessarily apply to Maiden Special Weight (MSW) winners. By breaking their maiden in the special weight ranks, this signifies class pedigree, which can also be identified by purse size, and these horses can and do repeat and win. MSW is a completely different class level than Maiden Claim.

Finding bets to make is only half the battle. The other half is just as important and that is how to make the bet once you locate it and even this requires a rule of thumb. In the case of a pick 6 wager we like the bet to consider the bet when on 2 tickets we can place the wager for between $250 and $400 depending on the base amount of the bet. When the ticket costs higher, we’ve come to recognize that we’re not confident enough in our wager and it would be placing too much to chance so we pass and wait for a later date.

All said, I’d like to walk everyone through how we got 5 out of 6 again on our second syndicate pick 6 wager and you’ll see just as easily how we will eventually hit one and this will be one of many to come.

First, the main reason for the bet was Race 10, the 9 horse trained by Bill Mott. Had this horse listed as my POD (stands for Play of the Day) because the horse woke up last time out, was favored in her last 3 races and ran at GP which is considered the winters specialty meet plus Mott had a 66% win percentage in today’s TS Stats and a 100% Layoff percentage on 3rd after a layoff in a sprint.

Prior to viewing race 10, race 9 had several horses that jumped off the page however the number 8 horse who is trained by Chad Brown and who was ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr had huge pedigree for a good turf and also had a recent turf work on the same type of good turf surface though there were other horses in this same race that got my attention for similar reasons.

From here I went race by race starting with race 5 which was the first leg of the pick 6 and right away I noticed a horse trained by Chad Brown with the same jockey Irad Ortiz Jr riding that was in race 10 and this 1 horse also possessed pedigree for a good turf. So I realized I now had a potential Either or; same trainer, same jockey, in similar conditions, all with a real chance of winning within this serial race wager. I also noted that should Brown miss either leg that there were quite a few horses in each that had a chance of winning under these same surface conditions so if Brown missed either leg that the winner was open for a possible long shot which is exactly what took place…..

In leg 1 Brown lost race 5 and a long shot, the #10 trained by Steve Asmussen won paying over $30 to win. After this leg I realized that we were anchoring on Browns horse in race 9 and of course the single that we had on both tickets, the 9 horse in race 10.

Fortunately we didn’t get knocked out of the first leg like we did the other day at GP which always feels better than knowing your chances are over right away, and again we only lost one leg and it so happened to once again be to a horse with the number 7 that beat us. Then my mother’s thoughts always come to mind because since I was born she said when things happen in 2s, they always happen in 3s and this is so true that I have witnessed this countless times in this life path so saying so to forewarn everyone that we’ll probably get 5 out of 6 in a pick 6 again and the leg we miss will be the horse #7. However hopefully through this insight mixed with the humor of my Mom, everyone can see why we bet a pick 6 today at Keeneland and the reasoning behind the decisions.

When I looked back on the 7th race to view the horse that won that I did not have on our ticket I can see how this horse did win and not having this horse included was purely an oversight by me and not anything to do with any rule of thumb. As a matter of fact, as things for some reason always come clearer after you lose a race, I can see clearly now that this horse is already a proven winner on a good turf surface that happens to be at the same distance as today’s race.

When our program is to the point of anticipation by the end of this month, missing horses such as this will come into view and we’ll hit more of these than we will not and another thing that has come clear to me and that is I will probably have to make adjustments to our current list of more often than not because when statistics show their strength, I must and will make the necessary adjustments even though human error will sometimes still get the better as long as the better is less often than not 🙂

I made the following pick 6 wager for us today at Keeneland. Here’s our wagers:

Keeneland Race 5

$1.00 PK6 on 1/5,6/1,9,10,13/2,3,5,6/1,4,6,8,9/9 $160
$1.00 PK6 on 2-4,6-12/5/1,9,10,13/2,3,5,6/8/9 $160

Also made a Superfecta Wager at Tampa today:

Tampa Bay Tbd Race 9

$0.50 SPR on 3/1-10/8/1-10 $28
$0.50 SPR on 3/1-10/1-10/8 $28
$0.50 SPR on 1-10/3/8/1-10 $28
$0.50 SPR on 1-10/3/1-10/8 $28

Way back when Ed first published his Layoff and Claim information in booklet form he included this statement in the preface:

I track the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th race after a layoff, separated by sprint, 7 furlongs and under and route races 7 and 1/2 furlongs and greater and I have the same 4-step procedure for claiming trainers. So I handicap the Human Factor and not the horse.

A very powerful statement included in a brief synopsis of how Ed actually looked for potential wagers to make. Rather than viewing the horses history to predict the outcome in today’s race, Ed looked for the improvement in the place that makes sense, in the place that all other sports look for improvement too, through the manager and our sports equivalent is through the trainer. Yet even as against the grain that this approach is, Ed soon discovered an even more deep rooted human element that had to be added in and these include the jockey who rides their horse and the most important of all, the owner, because this is the person that pays the bills.

To us handicappers the owner is almost completely invisible unless they come into the spotlight by owning a Stakes Grade winner, which essentially gives us a false impression of how potent this entity actually is towards the outcome of todays race.

Yet Ed viewed this aspect realistically because every horse that runs a race has an owner and each owner is responsible for the food their horse eats, the veterinarian fees to treat normal athletic injuries, and all the expenses in getting every runner ready to race, that includes paying jockey’s to ride and to workout their horses, the silks, the outrider ponies, etcetera in the form of a day rate which averages upwards of $100 a day per horse so owners in horseracing are no different than owners of any other business. They want to make money and if they are the dominate financier because they pay all the bills, they want to have all the say so of what happens with their horse as well as when it happens.

This may sound minimal but when viewed through the brain of Ed Bain who witnessed such things first hand by placing wagers on statistics of such, it’s the owner who says my horse belongs in an Allowance Race with a purse of $50K because he’s my horse and he has superior pedigree, when in fact the trainer knows good and well that their horse actually belongs in a $10K claiming race because their pedigree isn’t as stellar as the owner likes to believe.

At one point in Ed’s life he was in real estate and can’t tell you how many times he met with home owners who want to sell their home that state they have the most beautiful home on the block if not in the entire neighborhood and because of this, their home should be put on the market for a higher value than any home similar and they list their home with an agent who agrees to the listing only to sit on their asking price too long until they accept the reality and move their asking price way down……… and horse racing owners are no different. And the great news is our statistics take all this into account and much more, especially when the trainer is also the owner of the horse.

Ed used to say that the really good trainers know where to place their horse and place them in the class, distance and surface that best suits them which they come to know through their charge. Then behind the scenes he added the really good trainers know how to handle their owners and the really fortunate ones are the trainers who own their horse because they don’t have to listen to an outsider who knows nothing about training horses tell them where they should run.

Not all trainers are owners voluntarily, many self train because they haven’t been able to hire their services out to an owner however the ones that are owners by choice know that when they win, they collect the entire 60% of the purse verses the 10% allotted to the trainer otherwise. And to see how much of an impact this actually has, I’ll ask you to take notice when a trainer has multiple entries in a race, particularly ones that are not coupled and one horse is owned by ABCXYZ Owner and the other is owned by the trainer, more often than not you’ll see the trainer owned horse win in this scenario while their ABCXYZ Owner horse usually tries but comes in just short of the winning results. Though I realize making this observation is not the trainer admitting to making this as a conscious move, and is quite the reverse actually because it’s a financial subconscious one. The trainer that seems to make this move more than the rest is Steve Asmussen so if you notice him in a race, see if he has another runner in the same, one that he owns and trains and another for someone else and note how often he wins verses the ones he doesn’t own. He does this move so often that I actually find him unplayable because I zig when I’m supposed to zag and so on however once all the upcoming algorithms are in place by the end of this month, I’m happy to say that we’ll know exactly when we should pounce on this very move.

Just wanted to put everyone’s mind to rest in case I find myself in need of a day off. I’ve trained someone quite capable who can make the bets for our syndicate, She’s partial to horses out of Kitten’s Joy, Tale of a Cat or Storm Cat to name a few and does quite well, especially with first time starters and races ran in the mud or on the turf.

We’ve contracted some serious developer help to build a tool so that the database and all it’s components will be cleaned (meaning aliased so the bulk majority of names will match) and this will be accomplished within the next 10 to 14 days.

At that time we’ll be able to add in the Owners which is one of the most important components currently missing from the calculations because until now, was too enormous a task to consider adding in due to the thousand different ways these owners are listed. However, the tool the developers built will take on this task for us.

After this is accomplished we’ll be adding in many missing and anticipated algorithms, such as pedigree; how this performs on different surfaces and surface conditions, ages, class and/or distance each prodigy is best suited for and where each will most likely win. The algorithms that produces a positive will add to today’s horse’s ratings while the negative ones (such as a horse isn’t placed in the right class) reduces the rating so when a horse makes it to our Potential Bets list, this runner will have at least a 15 sound point rating higher than any of the other runners in the same race. The integration of these algorithms will take an additional 2 weeks so by the end of this month we’ll be able to confidently make wagers and after a short test run of tweaking where the point ratings may be too tweaked or not enough, we will be going live and our venture will be running full speed ahead! Yeah!!!

Because we’re making our way to the far turn and going down the stretch, will need everyone who has a balance due on their investment(s) in hand no later than the end of this month so we’ll be ready to roll.

If this goes as well as expected , we may not have to open up any of the remaining shares.