I’ve been looking forward to sharing these screen shots of our betting program with you so everyone can visualize the progress we’re making. Note the base algorithms of the 4 race form cycles are already showing some statistical results. Seeing this makes us anticipate the day when our module is ready to roll, though not far off, we anticipate we’ll be running tests some time in November. Though there is a great deal accomplished already there is still quite a bit to do; algorithms to build, formulas to write and to test, most of which will be at the hand of the mathematician.
Understanding we’re all anxious to move forward we chose to build the module in stages so when Stage 1 is complete we will be able to test the model and then right after validation (which could take a month) we will be able to go live, making actual bets. Stage 2 will add in more stats that were not included in Stage 1 and so on. Building this is similar to Microsoft building Windows. First they debuted with Windows 95, then Windows 98, then Windows XP, then Windows 7 and so on. We were able to use our computers when Windows 95 came out and continued to do so with each new improved version and the same will apply here.
One of the things that Ed and I have come to realize about software developers is that they are ALWAYS off when they relay time tables as to when things will be accomplished. I say this so you will know that when I share their answered time frame, I can only relay what they relay to me. To make sense of why this is, though this seems a funny example, it is a true representation. The following is a photo copy of Ed Bain’s brain:
and this is what the programmers must comprehend in order to build this program for us.
Now on to the Dazzle
This is the base of our Betting Module. When selecting Race Index date to the left the right displays a corresponding summary of what will be the best potential bets for this selected race day. Click directly on each photo to enlarge.
The first column is the Rating. Every horse in every race will have a rating determined by the conditions of today’s race and the end result is a hierarchy of how each horse is expected to perform to the algorithms applied. The program is designed to do all the culling for us. When the program is complete we will be able to go right to the Index for each race day and this will only list the runners who have a huge advantage over any other runners in that race. (Right now the index is pulling up every runner with a high number. We let the stats show so you can visualize what will soon be).
Next to the rating is the information pertaining to that race, Track is the race track Abbreviation, the race Number, the race Post Time, the race Class, the Horse’s betting number and name and then the horse’s Age. Currently missing but soon to be added is the surface.
This next screen shot continues across additional fields displayed in the index which include today’s Jockey, then today’s Trainer, then today’s Owner. The next field labeled Jky/Trn Stats will list specifically how today’s Jockey performs with today’s Trainer, and the Trainer Stats field lists how today’s trainer performs. All stats are specific to today’s track, class, distance, surface, and field size.
Though the index displays and links to the best potential bets for that day, we will not be betting every one. I will click on each one to easily review the potential bet. For this sample I chose to click to a race that you’ll note in the photo following is one that shows a large gap in the Rating hierarchy.
The first horse has a rating of 94 and the next best rating is 73 so you can see why the algorithms selected this race.
Next post we’ll take a look at the races by track and the information displayed. Then in a few weeks when we get further along we’ll set up a go-to-meeting so everyone will be able to see the betting module in action.
I want to thank everyone from my heart for your warm notes and for sharing with me what having Ed in your life has meant to you. I especially want to express how much now more than ever what your patience with allowing me this time to grieve means. Tonight it’s been 5 weeks since Ed’s passed and I feel the loss as much as if he just passed today.
I plan to post in spurts instead of trying to get to everything all at once. I have daily correspondence with all involved. Not unlike people building a house staying in constant communication with the architect and the builder. I have to let you know that sometimes it will take me a little time to get the updates to you. This is only because I am honestly drained, physically as well as emotionally. Though I will soon have some relief as I’ve just hired a much needed assistant who will assist me along 🙂
I put a copy of Ed’s 4+30 Book and my Signers Book on the site. Would like everyone to have a copy. You can download the pdf by clicking on the links with the same name at the top of each page.
Re: the aliasing mentioned in the last post. Wanted to clarify that aliasing is something that we will always need to do because every entity in racing has multiple ways their names are entered. The big challenge is initially since every name has this aliasing required. That said we’ve just about finished tackling the Jockey’s and the Trainers which is all we’ll do for Version 1. In later versions we’ll alias the Owners since they are more difficult to do.
Not sure everybody has a copy of the Bill Benter article so just in case here is a copy in pdf:
The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse Racing Code