Get Ready to be Dazzled

I’ve been looking forward to sharing these screen shots of our betting program with you so everyone can visualize the progress we’re making. Note the base algorithms of the 4 race form cycles are already showing some statistical results. Seeing this makes us anticipate the day when our module is ready to roll, though not far off, we anticipate we’ll be running tests some time in November. Though there is a great deal accomplished already there is still quite a bit to do; algorithms to build, formulas to write and to test, most of which will be at the hand of the mathematician.

Understanding we’re all anxious to move forward we chose to build the module in stages so when Stage 1 is complete we will be able to test the model and then right after validation (which could take a month) we will be able to go live, making actual bets. Stage 2 will add in more stats that were not included in Stage 1 and so on. Building this is similar to Microsoft building Windows. First they debuted with Windows 95, then Windows 98, then Windows XP, then Windows 7 and so on. We were able to use our computers when Windows 95 came out and continued to do so with each new improved version and the same will apply here.

One of the things that Ed and I have come to realize about software developers is that they are ALWAYS off when they relay time tables as to when things will be accomplished. I say this so you will know that when I share their answered time frame, I can only relay what they relay to me. To make sense of why this is, though this seems a funny example, it is a true representation. The following is a photo copy of Ed Bain’s brain:

and this is what the programmers must comprehend in order to build this program for us.

Now on to the Dazzle

This is the base of our Betting Module. When selecting Race Index date to the left the right displays a corresponding summary of what will be the best potential bets for this selected race day. Click directly on each photo to enlarge.

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The first column is the Rating. Every horse in every race will have a rating determined by the conditions of today’s race and the end result is a hierarchy of how each horse is expected to perform to the algorithms applied. The program is designed to do all the culling for us. When the program is complete we will be able to go right to the Index for each race day and this will only list the runners who have a huge advantage over any other runners in that race. (Right now the index is pulling up every runner with a high number. We let the stats show so you can visualize what will soon be).

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Next to the rating is the information pertaining to that race, Track is the race track Abbreviation, the race Number, the race Post Time, the race Class, the Horse’s betting number and name and then the horse’s Age. Currently missing but soon to be added is the surface.

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This next screen shot continues across additional fields displayed in the index which include today’s Jockey, then today’s Trainer, then today’s Owner. The next field labeled Jky/Trn Stats will list specifically how today’s Jockey performs with today’s Trainer, and the Trainer Stats field lists how today’s trainer performs. All stats are specific to today’s track, class, distance, surface, and field size.

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Though the index displays and links to the best potential bets for that day, we will not be betting every one. I will click on each one to easily review the potential bet. For this sample I chose to click to a race that you’ll note in the photo following is one that shows a large gap in the Rating hierarchy.

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The first horse has a rating of 94 and the next best rating is 73 so you can see why the algorithms selected this race.

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Next post we’ll take a look at the races by track and the information displayed. Then in a few weeks when we get further along we’ll set up a go-to-meeting so everyone will be able to see the betting module in action.

I want to thank everyone from my heart for your warm notes and for sharing with me what having Ed in your life has meant to you. I especially want to express how much now more than ever what your patience with allowing me this time to grieve means. Tonight it’s been 5 weeks since Ed’s passed and I feel the loss as much as if he just passed today.

I plan to post in spurts instead of trying to get to everything all at once. I have daily correspondence with all involved. Not unlike people building a house staying in constant communication with the architect and the builder. I have to let you know that sometimes it will take me a little time to get the updates to you. This is only because I am honestly drained, physically as well as emotionally. Though I will soon have some relief as I’ve just hired a much needed assistant who will assist me along 🙂

I put a copy of Ed’s 4+30 Book and my Signers Book on the site. Would like everyone to have a copy. You can download the pdf by clicking on the links with the same name at the top of each page.

Re: the aliasing mentioned in the last post. Wanted to clarify that aliasing is something that we will always need to do because every entity in racing has multiple ways their names are entered. The big challenge is initially since every name has this aliasing required. That said we’ve just about finished tackling the Jockey’s and the Trainers which is all we’ll do for Version 1. In later versions we’ll alias the Owners since they are more difficult to do.

Not sure everybody has a copy of the Bill Benter article so just in case here is a copy in pdf:
The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse Racing Code

THERE IS NO BETTER FEELING IN THE WORLD THAN BEING LOVED BACK BY THE ONE PERSON YOU TRULY LOVED. I HAD THIS GIFT FOR 30 YEARS.

These were the last words Ed spoke to me before coming in and out of consciousness, two weeks before his passing. And these are the words that I am holding on to today and every day I move forward because these will get me through this almost completely unbearable time of my life.

Ed’s powerful expression to me was so thought out, even in the midst of everything he was going through he chose his words carefully, said them to me in the exact way that I needed to hear them so I would be all right. Just a small sampling of how we were together. Whenever I did not know exactly what to do, what decision to make or how to get passed something that may be addressing me in a difficult way, Ed words made me think about the direction I needed to take and when he did this, I’d be able to choose a place I needed to go.

During these two weeks of mourning, missing him so badly that it hurts more than any illness I’ve fared, of feeling each day that I don’t know how I can face another day without him at my side, I hear his voice clearly in my head. He says “It’s OK to mourn, it’s OK to cry but keep going, keep taking care of our kitties...” and when he says this he includes the best ways to keep the litter box clean. He says it’s now up to me to fulfill his life long dream, what he and I’ve worked on in our shared lifetime together. To complete this venture; finish building the betting program including his thoughts, including his statistics. He said Benter made a billion dollars with limited yet focused data from a database for just two racetracks in Hong Kong. We have track specific extremely focused data for 108 total racetracks in the USA and Canada and where Benter probably built a million algorithms for his betting program our betting program will have at least 108 million more.

And from these words I sit still, listen, meditate to an even pace, and then laugh out loud about how Ed always made sure I was aware of the important fact that he cleaned the littler box better than me and smile because I finally realized he is still with me, he continues to keep me going just in a different way…. he is now in my head.

In 1998 Ed and I lived in a house that we paid cash for from a combination of winnings from the racetrack and from a small recycling brokerage company that we managed and owned. This business required a great deal of capital because we had to pay for the recyclables we purchased for the paper mills up front while the mills we sold to had terms of payment of 120 days. To fund this Ed and I put our home up for collateral to obtain a business line of credit. This loan required a zero balance of at least 30 days within each year and at this time was vastly approaching the annual date due. If we did not accomplished zeroing out this note it would be called in and we were were at risk of losing our home. It was then when Ed said “Santa Anita has a carryover in their pick 6 today, why don’t you put $100 into your betting account, relax and take a look at it!”
Well……….. we hit the pick six at Santa Anita that day. It paid $88,411.00, $67,000 after taxes and we drove to Ladbroke race track (the hub that took in all the youbet online bets) in the middle of a blizzard and picked up $67,000 in cash given to us in brown paper bags. We never would have hit this pick 6 had Ed not said for me to put the money into my betting account and we used the winnings to zero out our business line of credit!

When saying there is no better feeling in the world than being loved back by the one person you truly loved, Ed is also that person for me.  And wherever he is right now, I know I will be some day but until that time this love of ours has not stopped and this shared bond lasts forever and knowing this within my core being lets me know that I can move on and everything will be OK.

And to be OK means finishing his legacy where he left off and because of his careful and precise preparation, and all his feelings and thoughts he’s left inside my head, I am certain that together we are going to accomplish this.

SOME GOOD NEWS

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For larger view click on the link above

I took the above screen shot so you can see the progress we are making on our betting program. Over the next week I will be filling you in on all the details. We’ve made a lot of progress though there is still a ways to go. We have 108 racetracks that we daily enter data for, including future entries and everything, and I emphasize everything has to match up. So there is this process called Aliasing which means a jockey, a trainer or an owner will have multiple entries under different names. As an example the jockey John R. Velazquez will be entered in our data base as J.R. Velazquez, or J Velazquez, or Velazquez, J.R. or Velazquez, J or Velazquez, John R or Velazquez, J and all these names have to be matched up. In addition there are several other jockey’s with the same last name and also with the first initial of J so when we match up the aliasing (which is something Ed and I do (did) cause we know who is who it just takes time to cull through. Multiply this by every jockey, every trainer, and every owner and you can now see why this takes time. In order to have accurate stats they have to be accurately applied to the correct person and because we’re going to be betting lots of money accuracy is essential. Then each entity has to have an algorithm applied so the program will tell us who has an advantage over who each day and then it will be up to me to choose which ones we actually bet.

Realize the most essential thing to our success is accuracy and building this program that will tell us what to bet is something that just cannot be rushed. More than anything we know you know how we wanted to have this done before Ed passed but even as much as it hurt to wait in hope that this would be here before he passed he knew and always said to do this right it can not be rushed along. Though with that said we are probably closer than you may think.