GP Pick 6

Morning,

Just wanted to let everyone know that I bet a Rainbow Pick 6 for us at Gulfstream today and if we win, we’ll split the winnings rather than throw the money back into our betting pool. It’s important not to copy and make this bet too because the big payout is only paid when 1 ticket wins. Here’s our wagers:

$0.20 PK6 on 3-5/2-4,7,8/4,6,8/1-3,6/1,4-6,8-10/5  $252

$0.20 PK6 on 3-5/2-4,7,8/4,6,8/1-3,6/9/7,10  $72

Wish us good luck. We can use that too 🙂

Why I bet the Superfecta in Tampa Race 7

The trainer stats on this 2 showed 30% show out of 13 tries at today’s track, class, distance and surface over the last 9 years and the horse’s race record lined up with the statistic.
The high rating in this race was for a horse that just broke it’s Maiden in a Maiden Claiming Race. Always a bad bet, especially when they won a Maiden Claim race unless the horse has a rest and is coming off a Layoff.
Chose to key the 8 horse because he’s bred for the turf, coming off a Layoff and is the Only horse in the entire race who has 1 win and 1 place out of 4 tries so could be used in first and second.

I’m Back :)

Good evening everyone,
I’ve asked the developers to give us an idea as to when additional algorithms will be added to our betting program. In its current form it can take 6 to 8 hours to cull through and as I am looking through these I’m seeing first hand that without additional data points I am unable to consistently place wagers with the confidence required.

We’ve designed the program to do all the culling for us. Eventually, as a certain number of additional data points are added, we’ll bet the majority of Potential Bets that make it on this list because it will only list ones that have a ranking that is more true to form. Then we’ll bet the majority and the results of these bets will produce us a positive return.

Because I am spending a great deal of time culling through and deciding test bets in the programs current form and the result so far has been barely breaking even and our venture is not about churn and all about making money for each investor, I’ve made the decision to cut way back on regular test betting until the Potential Bet reports a majority of wins.

I understand that to date we have not discussed much in the way of financial details surrounding our project and this was my choice mainly because we weren’t asking current investors to invest additional money. We understood that we’d accomplish everything as new investments came in and if we could keep things going to where the first version was released that we could open the remaining shares for more than the $6K initial investment in order to bring our program to a place where the list can be confidently bet.

Money is always the reason things progress or don’t progress so whenever investment funds came in we’d allocate everything in order to keep things moving along. And by the end of this month we’ll have almost all the 11 additional investment share monies in hand and at that time we plan to use each dollar, all if necessary to contract additional labor in order to get our program to this point of confidence. We’re not far from this now and believe once we have the developers update that within 4 to 6 weeks we’ll be at the point to confidently test bet and soon after we’ll be out of test mode to a state of consistent wins.

I do have a small request because I understand not everyone is aware of our structure and that is basically everything surrounding our project; correspondence with the developer team and/or mathematician, PR to fill the open investment shares, keeping the casino up to date with our progress so they’ll know when to expect us to take the plunge, discussions with legal counsel in order to protect all of our investments and ensure no interruption prevents our venture from moving forward, to writing blogs to keep everyone in the loop is all handled completely by me and me alone and because of this sometimes there are delays. The good news is I am the one who will be choosing the developer that we add to our team so Zen Racing will have in place a sort of go-between where this someone will keep me informed of the developers progress and in turn it won’t take me as long to relay this information to you.

In closing today’s post, I’d like to share that when I’ve been making test bets I discovered that when I was strictly betting Win, Place and or Show that our betting pool was gradually decreasing but I was able to bring it back when placing a few wagers on exotics. So rather than cull through the program to test bet for us across the board, on the weekends I plan to look through races at the tracks that I like to play (GP, FG, TAM) and spot bet some exotic plays for us and when I make us a wager, I will post these bets along with their results on our blog the following day.

SCHEDULE DUE TO LLC TAX FILINGS

Good Afternoon,

I have pressing corporate/LLC tax filings due this week so I’m going to take care of these before continuing posts about our betting program.

I will however continue to publish the Potential Bets All list that can be viewed at the link with the same name in the navigation bar. And for a special treat, at least I think it’s one, Mark Cramer gave me permission to share with you the chapter in his book Kinkier Handicapping called Ed Bain and Susan Sweeney. Published in 1996 after Cramer’s classic book Kinky Handicapping Mark once again captures the true essence of the relationship that Ed and I shared that includes the different ways we each derived our bets from Ed’s Layoff and Claim statistics.

This was an era of information in horse racing beyond PPs and speed that included Mike Helm’s Exploring Pedigree, Joe Takach’s fantastic video Beat the Beam about physicality and another video called the Trainer’s Edge and then my favorite publication of all, that wasn’t Ed’s Layoffs and Claims of course, was Lee Tomlinson’s Mudders and Turfers. Tomlinson whose real name was Art Kaufman and at the time of his publication Art worked on wall street and he did not want his cohorts to know of his horse racing interest so he published under the name of his best friend Lee Tomlinson. We had the pleasure of meeting and then becoming lifelong friends with Art (we also actually met his friend Tomlinson too) after the publication of Mark’s Kinkier Handicapping book because Tomlinson read about my trifecta hit at the Fair Grounds and he told me that I had the largest hit ever from his sire pedigree ratings which he said I maintained the lead all the way to the finish line which was the day when he sold his ratings to the DRF.

BTW whenever we were around Art and we would be talking about his stats we always called him Tomlinson instead of Art. It was a subconscious switch that happened in our racing brains. From this read you’ll also get a glimpse of how much pedigree impacts the outcome of any race.

Enjoy, You can view the chapter at the following link:
Ed Bain and Susan Sweeney

An added note of something that I would like to personally share. I consider myself Ed’s protégé and a successful one because Ed truly is the best statistical handicapper that decided to apply statistics to a sport that all of us love. And to know how I really came about who I am in this, if you haven’t already, or if you have and haven’t in a while, I would like to suggest reading Signers. It’s my story and why I bet as I do because of Ed and everything that he tracked statistically. What I’ve come to know from this genius, that was also my love is the base of all my betting decisions. There is a link to my book Signers in the navigation bar above. I’m re-reading this now as I speak 🙂 It’s always good to have a refresher even when it’s refreshing ones self in how you usually think.