Good Morning,
I had to wait until we got to this point where we have the date when version 1 will release and we have your virtual signing of the non-disclosure agreement before I was able to share the following proprietary information with you.
And I am going to start by explaining the base structure of our betting tool and how the algorithms are applied and then how the dynamics change when new algorithms are added and then applied so you will see the direct affect these will have on the best potential bets that the program displays each day.
The Base Structure means everything is separated by Track, Class, Distance, Surface and Field Size. To explain the impact this has on each statistic lets say we have a race today at Gulfstream (GP), in a Maiden Special Weight (MSW), at 5 Furlongs, on the Turf in a 10 horse field and trainer Bill Mott has jockey Junior Alvarado in the irons and over the last 9 years (since our database statistics go back to 2012) this Trainer/Jockey combination had 10 tries at GP in a MSW at 5 furlongs on the Turf in a 10 horse field and they won with 2, placed with 1 and showed with 2, came in 4th once, came in 5th twice, came in 7th once and 9th once.
So the first human thought is, Bill Mott has a huge stable, how can he only have 10 tries? That would be the case if we did not separate out just Gulfstream, if we did not separate out the class of MSW, if we did not separate the distance of 5 furlongs, if we did not separate the surface and if we did not separate the field size. It can get even more refined and will when we add in algorithms like surface condition where the dynamics change again as some horses run better on a soft turf while others hate it. This algorithm may show us this combination once came in 7th because the race was on soft turf. Or it can show us why the 2 wins because perhaps the dynamics worked in favor of a soft turf.
When we offered Ed’s statistics for sale on line, they were focused and track specific and truly the most comprehensive however they were not refined even close to the degree of our betting program. The online stats were offered separated by sprint (7 furlongs and under) and route (7 1/2 furlongs and more) rather than how we factor in this program which we separated by 5 furlong, 5.5 furlong, 6 furlong, etc. The online stats also grouped the class together so all MSW at GP regardless of the purse were grouped together within that statistic. The stats we offered were groundbreaking and so were the players who looked for information before betting on racing because they view their bets as an investment, however even as detailed as the online stats were, Ed still only averaged 1 win out of 4 per day and he spent a lifetime culling through the stats just to find the 4 potentials plays.
We are looking for the needle in the haystack and from 108 racetracks to choose from we’ll have several needles a day. Our goal is to refine, refine, refine to win, win, and win and we’ll accomplish this by betting when the odds line up with the percentages . We may find that we are refining too much and discover too few needles in the haystack so we’ll make adjustments which is something we will always be doing.
There is a lot to share with you now that we’re so close to letting them roll at the quarter pole so I’ll write these posts in segments. It’s just important to Ed and me to be as clear as we possibly can. Sometimes transposing Ed’s brain into legible words can be challenging and can’t always be accomplished with graphics like shared in the previous post. It was when we used to host horse racing seminars in the 90s that my role as Ed’s translator began.