Month: September 2022

Before I get going… want you to know that I have food poisoning and unfortunately it put me through quite a lot. I’m now just able to work, though am still a bit weak. This happened Sunday yet the excitement of what we have and the wonderful discoveries we’ve made as to how to make our bets is literally what keeps me going.

We’ve come to a similar place Ed found himself in when he began to bet the trainer stats he manually tracked. He understood the value of this information, that a 30% win rate was something he could capitalize on, yet just as important was this meant a 70% loss rate. Its this understanding of statistics that was the key to Ed’s success and why he was able to sustain a profit for more than 30 years. And the great news is, I know first hand how he accomplished this!

Technology has provided us several advantages that were not afforded Ed in the 90s with the first having the capability to daily update all data where we can then export fields that lets us monitor our modules performance which is how we know that since Version 2 the Standouts are winning on average between 30 to 40%, placing 20 to 29% and hitting show on average 11.5% with a consistent in the money hit rate of 72.5%.

From this information it is reasonable to assume that if we flat bet X amount across on all Standouts that we’d begin to make money right away. However, this is not the case. There are many reasons, quite a lot of low payouts. Winners, in the $2.60 to $2.80 range and $2.10 to $2.20 for place and show. And come race day the list of Standouts changes, sometimes several times throughout the day due to scratches, surface conditions and jockey switches which while betting requires my monitoring as well as keeping up with throughout the day.

We have 15K to work with. This is our base. What we’re going to build our bank on. Understand we could go through 15K fast if we plunge before we go through analysis and perceive the best place to invest. So to begin, we essentially have to test bet all scenarios to find what works more often than not and it’s through this that we will establish a routine, a set of rules that percentage wise works more in our favor than not, meaning that these rules win more than they lose and in order to accomplish this, we’re betting small, analyze the results, continue betting what we discover profitable, and more important stop when we’ve tried something and it is not. This is why I bet some days, then stop. We go inside the numbers, adjust to what works, set aside what doesn’t, and go again. Over several weeks we’ve bet all, meaning every single Standout across the board, betting all show since 72.5% on average are in the money, betting place and show, betting smaller amounts in win, more in place, and even more in show and what we’ve found is not unexpected and that is all decisions made boil down to odds and where is their value. Amazingly we’ve discovered ways of getting value from 3/5.

We’re not far, meaning within the next week I see us having at least one consistent money making routine down that will let us open up the amounts we’re betting and we’ll expand from there. In other words I see us rolling steady by Sunday next week. We’ll stay course and continue to analyze which will add to what we bet and in turn continue to add to our bottom line and so on.

The following is a list of reports that I’d like you to view and/or download when you get the chance with an explanation below each. My goal is to relay an understanding of what this analyzing entails and how we’re deciphering what to bet.

This first group is what we recently bet:

Zen Bets 9/23/22, Zen Bets 9/24/22, 9/27/22, 9/28/22 Sorted by Track and Bet Type, 9/28/22, and 9/29/22.

All the above reports were test bets. We bet every single Standout in w/p/s, every daily double and exacta using all to see if this could be flat bet which can not. In addition we bet exotic wagers when we saw something however you can see from these results that this at this point burns too much through what we have to work with yet necessary to try to see.

Next is today’s reports. Since I’ve been working on this post all day at it’s now 8:32 PM Pacific time, and I uploaded these hours ago when about half the races hadn’t yet run, this will give you an idea of what a day is like. In addition I made bets that I was going to include but I ran out of gas so will upload tomorrow. We had a fairly break even day.

9/30/22 Standouts 1, 9/30/22 Standouts 2,

The following is a sorted list of the Standouts. This Shows what tracks to bet and just as important what tracks to avoid and then there are several tracks that are definitely betable however requires discretion.
Standouts sorted by track 6/20/22 to 9/27/22

Re this list, The following track we are to completely avoid: All small tracks that show both quarter horse and T-Breds, all Canadian tracks except for Woodbine including avoiding Fort Erie and the following US Tracks; CT, EVD, PID, EVD.

Then the following is my Guide meaning what to bet Win, Place, or Win, Place and Show according to odds. Right now more generalized that when we have future versions with additional algorithms that increase the win percentage and I’ve found following this guide has saved us money meaning there are times to bet just win, place and not include show and other times where we not only include all three but only bet show.

Morning Line- Odds Table

In closing I need to share some things personal. I do deal with quite a few health issues and almost daily push through no matter but have to be honest in the fact that this really catches up to me. Some days I literally can not get out of bed. Usually this occurs on Monday and some times runs over to Tues after an intense weekend. The reason I share this is cause I want everyone to know that I am doing everything humanly possible to move us forward and my plans are once we have an established routine that we can have my backup bettors take over on days when I am dealing with such. So my goals always have long term thoughts in mind. No need to be concerned. I’m sharing this only because this is what I face yet I have our venture and it’s continuance in the forefront always on my mind.

And I have a request. Because my person can not rattle off a quick reply to anyone who has questions, and I take to heart every persons concerns I ask that you give me this time, whatever it takes, a few weeks or a month to get this right, to get us going without having to personally address anyone’s thoughts. Please know that this request is not because I do not wish to answer or address anyone. It’s purely because I am one person, who unfortunately has to deal with health issues regularly and has to wear quite a few hats while keeping us going that in order to be all I can for everyone I really need to be doing just this, deciphering, analyzing, and betting so we can roll.

Long story as short as possible. I never bet on a horse race before Ed, ever. I may have accompanied several to a race track for an evening out yet I did not find myself at a window calling out a bet and when I finally did, it was Only after writing down word for word what Ed said when calling out his bets. This was because I was absolutely petrified that I’d make a mistake and Not that a mistake is something I couldn’t accept, it would be shocking if I meant to wager $6 and when I called out the bet incorrectly they said the actual cost was $180……. LOL But really this was my fear.

Fast forward 30 years of which three I did not bet. I observed a master at work and I can say this cause I witnessed the masters work, work 🙂

So after 3 years of accompanying him to the track and mostly loving the fact that we were outside surrounded by beautiful beings (horses) and very very unique people that Ed and I could fill a book with, I said to Ed that I wanted to bet.

Which brings me to today and what I wish to share.

First anyone who has read my autobiography Signers knows that the very first words Ed said to me when I shared with him that I too wanted to wager was that it was absolutely necessary for me to bet with my own money. My earned money because as like all of us know, making money, enough money so we can live comfortably is all any of us strives for so this is something most of us would not put at risk. I am included in most of us 🙂

Ed was a flat out win bettor. I found this impossible, agonizing and Not anything I would Ever want anything to do with.

Yet my role in our wonderful 30 years together and I do not say this lightly as Ed was truly my soul. His presence in my life essentially ruined me for anyone else which I like. I’m basically his forever and am just fulfilling our lives purpose. Yet his win bets were so cut and dry and would like all to remember that I witnessed his success unfold before my eyes which contrary to what some people believe took years and years to develop. I did Not personally like the way Ed bet at all. I found it stressful but after I jumped in I was studious to the umpth degree because I was truly learning from the master However several years later after witnessing his top selections coming in the money on average 60% of the time, around 18 to 20% winning, and almost always at high returns I figured there just had to be a way to capitalize on this and Not betting Place or Show…………..

The reason I bring all this up is I am Not equipped with the ability to bet like Ed. Far removed, however, I am an excellent exotic bettor with my specialty within races when we have a stat that I perceive will be in the money at least 60% of the time with a morning line of at least 9/2. And anyone who has been around us for some time knows that I kill this. Even Ed knew and relied on me to fill out tickets especially when he was considering betting an exacta or a tri.

So my dilema came in cause Ed and me understood Bill Benter’s winning formula is he bet 70 to 75% of his wagers on win, place and or show. Now granted this was when he reached a plateau that we’ve yet to accomplish which takes money though when he made this statement he was already producing 70% winners, where we are between 30 to 40%. Though substantial we still have a way to go but this won’t happen until we’re properly funded.

I guess the best way to look at what we have is we’re about 30% of where we’re going to be. Though that does Not mean we can’t make things work now. And considering the funding options are not currently present to the point of my acceptance, this is pretty dam good.

Yet please know me. Who I am. I am responsible for 36 shareholders of which I actually count as 72 because each persons significant other matters so I take this responsibility very serious.

That said, it was Not until Today that the light bulb went off. I finally realized after we reached this point of my betting for us that I just can not bet strictly win, place and/or show. This is so foreign to me but I am a well established, high percentage of wins exotic bettor and I am certain I can make us money this way only I must maintain this to an as race per basis.

Meaning serial wagers will kill our bank roll (though not completely out as we will bet them) however superfectas and trifectas won’t. So today this is where I concentrated my full effort. This does not mean that I didn’t place win/place and or show wagers But what this means is I went after the score and for the first time I felt at home. Though we basically broke even today I saw the light. Before it was a huge step to see betting $50 to show on a horse would change any of our lives. Yet if my key horse is at least 9/2 I can bet this horse in all slots and make us a profit.

Soooo….. this update is to let you know that Today is a Huge Day. Everything has come into focus. I’ve got this figured out. I’ve got us Covered. From this day forward I have absolutely no doubt that we’re going to fly….

What I need and this is mostly because I wear so many hats is time to just bet for us without having to explain anything. Not that I don’t want everyone to know what is going on. It’s purely that being in the position to share my every move doesn’t give me this freedom. Even though I wish to share all, and will, it’s best that I am not having to fill in each day details.

After all whenever anyone trades stocks in the market how often do they have regular personal communication with the person who set up the venture.

That said, we of course will post our wagers, the potential bets for the previous days and the results so all is transparent and everyone can follow along.

We’re here! We reached the point of reaping benefits. Now my primary focus is to keep us rolling. This does not escape me. I completely understand that this is All up to me…. and I plan to perform.

Next Post: 30 to 40% win rate still equates to a 60 to 70% loss rate. Yet we Are using the program and maintaining a profit.

OK…. 🙂

We begin with a 15K betting pool which is what we currently have in hand. There are several other commitments that would bring us to $17,500 though best to wait to count this towards our pool balance once funds are in.

It’s time to get into the details; What we have. How we’ll invest, along with the basis surrounding these decisions as well as what to expect as we move along. Since there is much to share and I will be investing for us this week, I plan to write this in a series.

Beginning with what we have

Like all Apps our program evolves as we deploy versions. Where substantial improvements to the user interface and the percentages of winners and in the money increase with each release.

It is important to keep in mind that our program has been built for one person to use, cull through, set aside potentials, update throughout the day to include race day changes; scratches, jockey switches and surface conditions which almost always amends the Standout list. And because my decisions on what we may bet are decided the evening before, I pay close attention to these changes the day of before making any decision final. Yet it is imperative for me to keep tabs on these wagers prior to each race because the odds can still determine a pass which is why you will see money in the cancel credit column.

The program publishes a top selection for every race run from the algorithms in place, and these are in the money on average 60% of the time. Yet our module was specifically designed to notify us of races where one runner within each race has at least a 10 point advantage over the next runner in that race, or what we refer to as “Standouts” (used to refer to as the Potential Bets). It’s this list that has consistently produced winners on average between 30 and 40% and an in the money hit rate of 72.5%. And this is not only fantastic, it’s amazing and the reason why I know we can win. This also explains why this list can change after scratches because a horse that had an advantage may not have one anymore or a horse that did not have one, now does. Jockey Switches are another variable that’s at play as each trainer does have go-to jocks and this is a built in algorithm, even more refined that the Jockey-Trainer reports we used to produce so when I’m betting and working towards making us money I have to be on top of this pretty much all day.

The interface has Not been designed to print anything. We are able to export results, though currently only for the top selection and not for every runner in each race once the database has been updated and these reports are used to monitor how the module is performing so we know precisely what adjustments we need to make. Even though we are able to use the program now, because this is a work in progress it is not uncommon for something to not function properly every once in awhile, albeit nothing major. Occasionally we’ve had the same runner show up multiple times in the field in a race and noticed this occurred after running the days update. Its understood that making adjustments will continue until we reach our intended goal of producing 70 to 75% winners (not in the money). These reports provide data similar to the records Ed kept when he was manually compiling his statistics and tracking his bets. It is from these exported reports that we are able to publish the results from the Standouts each day on the website.

And we are able to export several full cards to a spreadsheet which again isn’t made ready for viewing so they require clean up which is a task performed by one of our assistants in order to share the full cards for tracks like Saratoga and Del Mar.

As previously mentioned in quite a few blog posts that in order for our venture to work only one person who is making our bets can have regular access to the daily list of Standouts for the sole purpose of making wagers for Zen. Giving access to all would defeat our intended purpose and the reason we built this which is for all Zen shareholders to profit and not one alone.

That said, something Ed and I discussed for when we reached this point of my betting for Zen, is we both would like to provide all shareholders with some gems which is the reason why we kept this export option in when we deployed Version 2. Beginning next week, after Del Mar closes we will post a full card each day for a full week and in order to please all palates we will alternate between the high profile tracks.

Soon we will have Jockey-Trainer reports for you, similar to the pdf I found for New York that Ed compiled from 2018 that we shared in a recent email. This does however require some manual compiling so this will also take a little bit of time though we are in the process of readying things for this now and after we finish setting things on the site in order for all to follow our progress we’ll resume.

I started to bet for us today. The winning formula requires 70 to 75% of our wagers be on Win, Place, and or Show and 20 to 25% on exotics. Currently the program’s top selection is in the money 72.5% of the time however the selections for the remainder of the field is very hit and miss. Because of this, it’s imperative to our bottom line that I limit the exotic wagers and have successfully done so on paper betting doubles and exactas though most time when doing so these bets include all. I’m attaching today’s bets here.

I’ve been working on this blog post between today’s wagers in order to share with you how I am going to bet and at the point of saving these wagers there were several that had yet to run. I also planned to watch the odds on one of these races because the morning line was low however missed doing so. Mentioning because under normal circumstances if bet too low I would pass. However up until this point we were fairly even for the day.

I do plan on looking at races every day. In order for me to be all I can be for all of us which means being able to monitor the races as they happen each day and also figure out the potentials the night before I basically have to become a hermit. And as a one man show, who is the only person at present that can access the casino’s betting site, I am also the one who downloads the spreadsheets of our wagers. And especially now as all this is new and I’m establishing a routine it would be challenging to have to post our wagering reports daily so during this “beginning phase” I will post our wagers made once a week or if able more often so everyone can follow our progress and watch our betting pool grow! 🙂

And we plan to share videos of what we have and between things I plan to continue to update everyone on the blog.

So……… all this is Great News! We made it. We’re Here! As of this week we’re officially in business. Now it’s up to me to make us some money and this is what I plan to do!

Let em roll at the quarter pole!
Thank You Partners. We couldn’t have gotten here without You.