Experiment on Today’s PBs

Morning,

Test betting encompasses trial and error so we will reach the point where we’re focusing on not only the selections but also the way to bet them. And since 75% of our wagers will be win, place, and/or show I have to make a determination of how to bet these after reviewing the stats. And at this stage of our version 1, viewing pps is essential since we don’t yet have pedigree algorithms or individual horses race records.

As you know I am not currently basing all our bets from the potential bet list (which you’ll see where I am culling through next week when I make several videos) to decipher all the plays and what I did for today was cull the same way and then looked through Sunday’s PB list to see how many of the bets that I found as potential matched the ones on our list and I found 7 though not all of these are potential win bets. Then I also found 4 races on our list that have different horses that caught my attention more than the one listed on Sunday’s PB list.

For today only because I require solitude to have complete focus on the task at hand, below I’m going to type a list of what I may potentially bet from our list and the way I plan to bet them and then a list of races that are on our list however another runner caught my attention in that race and will list the horse that did and the way I may potentially bet these.

Can’t get into a discussion today for the same reasons however we will get into an in depth discussion about all this in the coming weeks.

One more note regarding our bets. It does not mean that if I select another horse in a race from our list that the horse I select will cash as opposed to the horse on the PB list, or visa versa. It’s a decision made from statistics. Ed used to say this about his 4 + 30 stat, which meant the trainer had at least 4 wins and a 30% win rate, that you’ll still lose 70% of the wagers you bet. In other words out of 100 bets, 30 on average will win and 70 will lose.

What we’re doing here is not just betting to win and not accepting low percentages. We’re relying on the stat to tell us the race to pay attention to which in the end it’s saying statistically in this race today this runner has more of a chance at hitting than the rest of the runners in the same race. And once all the algorithms are in place, the program will be doing all this for us and in most cases if they make it to the list, the majority we will bet because they will hit and then it will be up to me to decide if we bet the runner to win, or to place or to show, or any combination.

All of this will make a lot more sense once you see the videos.

First list is the ones on Sunday’s PB list that I will probably bet and how I am going to bet them:

AQU RACE 6 #5 TO SHOW
FG RACE 3 #4 TO WIN AND PLACE
GP RACE 9 #1 TO WIN
GP RACE 12 #6 TO WIN AND PLACE
OP RACE 10 #6 TO PLACE AND SHOW
TAM RACE 1 #4 TO SHOW
TAM RACE 4 #2 TO PLACE
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Next list is the races that showed up on our PB list however another runner’s statistics got my attention and this lists that runners betting number and how I plan to bet them.

FG RACE 2 #6 TO PLACE AND SHOW
SA RACE 4 #2 TO SHOW
TAM RACE 2 #6 TO WIN AND SHOW
TAM RACE 6 #5 TO WIN AND SHOW

This is encouraging that 11 races on our list are on my PB list too.

OK, lets see how we do today. Good luck everyone. Let em roll 🙂

Potential Bets ALL for Saturday and an Interesting Tale

Way back when Ed was manually recording his bets in an excel spreadsheet, he spent countless hours entering the data and then daily hand writing the stats race by race onto the racing form before he was able to decide what he would bet. In all, I’d say he lived racing 24/7, even when he slept. Just like he so successfully portrayed in his novel, Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines. His words accurately relayed the true person he was.

This is Ed working in racing 24/7, manually entering the data that produced his stats in a very beautiful office I might add that was designed specially for him in the home we paid for in full.

BTW we wanted to call his novel Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 480 Racing Forms but we could not due to copyrights. So he calculated how many running lines there were in 480 forms and this came to 38,880 and he decided on this.

It took Ed about 2 years to figure out how to use this information; what to bet from the positive stats and also what not to bet by eliminating bets through negative stats.

The manual recording had pluses that at the time we did not understand because by doing so he subconsciously retained much of this data within his brain. The result; from 1994 through 1998 he did so well with them that in combination with the recycling brokerage company I ran while Ed was busy getting us to racing we paid cash for an absolutely magnificent home.

Over time the manual recording became dominate. So much so that when Ed finally did get to handicap the days races, he was not fresh and we noticed a decline in his number of wins. This is when we decided to have a program written to calculate the statistics for him so all he would have to do is analyze.

To accomplish this was not easy. We soon became aware of the strong hold the monopoly in racing has on our sport. We were told that we could not purchase data files from any outlet that contained past performance information and use this information for such purposes unless we paid a half a million dollars for the license to do so and $5,000 a month for the data feed.

In addition if we did choose to pay this $500K we were not allowed to use this information for anything unless it was first approved by the same company that we would be paying the $500K to. Of course we said “what the fu** is this”. We’re not going to pay them this kind of money and then let them rule our life so we changed our plan of action and diligently tried to find a company that had such data files so we could build this program ourselves, however to no avail. Everyone we contacted told us that they were not allowed to sell us or anyone else this data for such a purpose and if they chose to do so anyway they would be put out of business.

This went on for months and during this search we were told that we could use one of the monopolies value added suppliers that already paid the $500K to build our program though we’d still have to have their approval to build what we wanted. And once it was built, we could use the information however we would also have to sell this product through this value added supplier in order for them to make money because they incurred the $5,000 a month fee. And at their direction this had to be done through a monthly subscription of $129. The arrangement was that the value added supplier would bill the subscriber and then they would split the $129 a month fee 2 ways; they would get 65% of the sales, we would get 35% even though all these ideas were Ed’s. And since we were at a crossroad due to the manual workload Ed had been experiencing and we were not allowed to purchase the necessary data files we agreed and went with one of their suppliers, solely because we needed Ed’s brain clear and fresh when making his decisions as to what he would bet.

Unfortunately this proved to be the biggest mistake of our life together because we lost complete control of Ed’s information and he no longer had any say in what was to go into this program or how these stats were presented. In other words they dictated what they would build and what they would put into the report.

Though….. I must say they certainly did not know Ed or me. It was because of their action that we built our own database 🙂

It took a number of years before we could break this tie and when we did we suffered a great deal financially because of their reaction to this break. But there is good in everything if you keep an open mind because owning a horse racing database is the absolute essential to getting a venture such as ours in motion and here we are today.

Mindset is paramount to our success when viewing the statistical information suggesting what we should bet. This is what got us here, to this wonderful venture that we share with you today.

Below is the Full list of Saturday’s Potential Bets without any filters applied by me.

Click Image to enlarge

From here I’m going to try to produce a video today that shows you why the details of this full list of potential bets is not where we should currently look and through this understanding you’ll be able to see why I was diverted to another place in our betting program to make decisions for our bets.

Then I will make a video of where I’ve been diverted to show you how I am going to decide what we will potentially bet.

Since mindset is key and I should be fresh in making decisions for Saturday’s potential bets, at this point I believe only the first video has a chance to make it to post today. Though I will use Saturday’s races when showing how I came to these potential bets. I’m also curious how many of the bets that made it to the full potential bet list that show up in my actual potential bets and early next week we’ll share these results.

Quick note: Since I’m posting Saturdays potential bets here I’m not going to post these on the page that we have made for these wagers. I will however post Sunday’s potential bet list there when it’s ready.

Test Bets and Our Betting Program and Friday’s Potential Bets All

TEST BETS


I purchased software today that will allow me to show everyone our betting program in a series of videos. This is a much better way to present rather than writing a post surrounding each topic and will aid in relaying everything pertinent to you a lot faster. I am in the process of learning to use this software and all it’s features, and it does look fairly easy, meaning I could figure out how to use it and then how to upload each. Then we’ll publish the videos here, one at a time, consecutively.

Since this will take several days and I would like to run test bets Saturday because this is the day that usually presents the most stats, I will see if I can at least accomplish the video that shows the Potential Bet list and why we currently won’t be using this to make our selections. And then also the video that will show where we will be and why. I want to film Saturday’s so you could see the process and then have an idea of what we’ll potentially be betting. Then we’ll resume dialogue early next week.

Potential Bets ALL

The reason I stopped posting the Potential Bet list is because I figured out why it’s not ready to exclusively use because there are a lot of algorithms not yet integrated and until they are the dynamics will change. It was only after betting them that I realized why there were a lot of statistics not hitting. This is one of the many reasons to test bet. This is also why I published the post about having to fill everyone in on so many things before we resume test bets by using the end of Ed’s novel as a parallel in a previous post.

There is much to tell and it takes time to tell it. I am one person with many tasks to do and finding the software I purchased today to make videos will speed up the process. However, it is important for all of us to keep in mind our goal. And that is for me to learn how to use our betting program in the different phases of release so I can find the potential bets, test bet to the point where most of our bets hit and then increase our bet size so we’ll make a lot of money for all of us. After Sunday’s break through, I know how we can accomplish this and most of the bets we should make are not on the potential bet list.

In order to get version 1 released I had to compromise and list the algorithms that absolutely had to be in and accept the interface as is which unfortunately is not user friendly. The outcome is about 6 hours of handicapping verses the one hour it will eventually be so it is best I apply these 6 hours to what we are actually going to bet rather than use this time to cull through the list of potential bets when at this time we’re not going to use the list.

That said I understand the disappointment because everyone was able to see the potential plays and look through these to possibly make your own wagers so I am in a sense going to make a compromise.

I’ll post only the Potential Bets ALL list (Friday’s below) with the understanding that this is Not the list I culled through, nor basing bets off of and since this is the case I will not be posting results for these because in it’s current form it is not a representation of what our finished program will be. Then instead of posting them on the blog each day, I’ll start posting these on the page we created for the potential bets.

There are still a lot of hits on that list and I truly want you to have access to them. Just want to be clear about their status.

Click on image to enlarge

Have Fun!

What’s My Stock Worth?

Excellent question.

Before the Version 1 release and while we were in the building stage, the stock value was the amount of the initial investment of 6K.

Now that it’s released, and investors see its’ vitality, its’ worth will become whatever we set the next investment at and at this juncture we know it will be above 10K.

Because we need time to work through test betting, adjusting and tweaking as well as allowing the necessary time to integrate and then also to adjust the remaining algorithms, we anticipate that it will take a full year to realize the actual value of each share by what we’ve accomplished.  This does not mean it will take a full year before we reach the point where we issue dividends, which after this weekends break through believe will be much sooner than the six months we initially perceived. The year gives us time to build and maintain our bank to 200K, the estimated number that allows for average bets of $2K per race, and to soundly know our full monthly operating expense. In lieu of this we ask all investors to hold on to their shares for 1 year from launch date, which in our case is Valentines day 2021 and then at that time if anyone wanted to sell, equi-stats and Zen Racing Stats will always have first right of refusal for any investment shares, we would purchase back your stock for the value determined at that time if you decided to do so.  Should, however, any investor have a reason that deems necessary to sell their share before Valentines day 2022, equi-stats and Zen Racing retains first right of refusal  and the price paid for the share would only be for the initial investment amount.  In other words anyone who at this writing is already an investor, has invested 6K and they wanted to sell their share before 2/14/22, equi-stats and Zen racing would buy it back for 6K.

The reason we wanted to offer our current investors first option is because each of you has hung in there with us through thick and thin, through hurdles that sometimes didn’t seem possible to overcome; such as Ed’s illness and worrying about whether or not we’d get all his brain incorporated in before he passed as well as convincing the developers to begin developing even when we didn’t have quite enough finances in hand. This is our way of letting you know that we appreciate your belief in us and our venture and a way of thanking you monetarily for your patience and your investment.

Should you retain your shares which I do see all of you will until you wish to retire and to purchase and live on your own island, which has every possibility, I honestly believe each share will be worth at least a million.  Here’s the reason why;

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At an average bet of $2,000 per race, the payouts are off the scale.  Using the WPS results from Sunday, even though they were short of break even when we won’t be short for long and you multiply all the payouts by 2000, the end results for these wagers would have been we bet $89,200 and got back $80,350 for one day of bets.  Now consider when we have down what we should bet (which will happen) we would have passed many of the ones we right now were betting thus increasing the bottom line to a positive and we would have added more to the same line had we known to only bet this horse to show, or only to place or to win and place and so on…

For example sake because no one, even our betting program will hit all races however we do expect high numbers to hit, using the same list of 37 bets and 22 hits and taking out the cost of the bets for the 15 that lost, now your numbers look like this; $53,200 bet, $80,350 hit for a net profit of $27,150 for just one day. And this does not include exotic wagers like daily doubles or exactas so you can easily see how the numbers will go off the scale.  Multiply this $27,150 by 220 racing days in a year and that totals $5,973,000.00 and divide that by 100 shares equates to $59,730 per share for that year in dividend.  With additional algorithms, adjusting and tweaking, these numbers say for themselves why we see each share will eventually have a worth of at least a million.

That’s a pretty good return on our investment, wouldn’t you agree? 🙂

Zen Racing’s Business Structure

Click image to enlarge or Click here to download the pdf

Business

Between the two of us, before our life together and then during, Ed and I have been actively involved in the start up of seven businesses. All, with the exception of this one began without venture capital. This was not our desired way to begin a business, however, in these pre-crowd funding platform days no one would loan money on a great idea unless you had collateral.

Fortunately, neither of us let a stumbling block like not having money prevent us from moving forward. If we did we would never have made it here, to the most exceptional one of all. We used to joke with one another about this and say “What if” were words that would never be put on either of our tombstones.

So far the cost to assemble our venture is $165,000. This total includes legal and professional fees, software development, mathematician, CIW and security for which we’ve paid $120,000 towards, leaving a present balance due of $45,000. We’ve agreed to make a payment of $15,000 by the end of March and made arrangements with all parties that have a balance due to accept a monthly payment that we won’t be required to pay until we reach the point where we are operating in the black.

Since we re-opened the 20 shares we had left, we received commitments from current investors for 10 of them. I plan on holding the remaining 10 shares back until the test betting phase is complete. At that time we will open these shares to new investors that are not yet part of our group for a yet to be determined amount. Initially we were figuring an investment of $10K for each share however before realizing the monthly operating expenses we’d incur towards the essential maintenance of tweaking and adjusting our betting tool as well as other operating costs, to have enough money in hand in our betting pool to make money on our bet investments will require more. We do have outside investors chopping at the bit that are ready to plunge in when we reach this point as they see what we’ve already accomplished and what we are about ready to do and will decide on the amount required to cover for these essentials we’ll establish a per share investment then.

Next post we’ll share what this means in value towards your investment now, it’s increased worth in the very near future and then an estimated worth at the end of our first year.

Welcome Back and Some Exciting News

If you’ve read Ed’s novel “Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines”, like me, you probably found yourself surprised that the first 80 or so pages did not mention horse racing.  Especially with that cover!  I’d wager you would be even more surprised to know, so was Ed.

He initially wrote the book this way. However when our editor whose chosen way to edit is as he goes along as opposed to reading all first and then edit found when he began, he was unable to put together how Ed arrived to the point where horse racing was his entire life. Ed kept suggesting he skip to the end of the book so he would understand, however, since this was not the way Ed’s editors worked, this topic of correspondence went back and forth for several months until finally out of sheer frustration Ed’s editor read the end of the book. And when he did, he immediately put all 80 or so of those pages in front. And then how horse racing became the dominate in Ed Bain’s brain made sense to him and it did to us too.

I wanted to share this story because it is relevant to where we are in our venture now.  We’ve been saying for more than a year that we are developing an amazing program; loaded with algorithms that no one else has ever thought of, etc without being able to tell you to read the end of the book because that information part was proprietary, so you could see the same certainty that Ed and I see of our ventures success until 2/14/21 when Version 1 was released.

The build up has been great and now that version one is released I finally can fill you in and have to say my enthusiasm is so great that it can’t be fast enough, that’s how exciting all this is. We want you to see what Ed and I see. We want to let you read the end of the book first so we’re all on the same page as we move along in our venture. 

And the beginning is not rushing in, making test bets.  It’s letting you know everything first, how our venture will unfold; what our investment actually means as well as it’s value at present and in the near future, when we expect to get to the point of paying dividends and then how these will be dispersed, our structure; what we plan to accomplish in this phase of test bets, and so on and this has to be presented first before we proceed with test bets. We want everyone to know the process of these test bets, the whys and how imperative it is for me to become familiar with what we have in order to profit the most from what we’ve already accomplished.

Speaking of test bets, during the three days that our internet service provider was upgrading and our service was intermittently interrupted I had a chance to really explore what we currently have integrated in our betting program and found the place that I need to go to select our bets. And this currently is NOT what we’re displaying on our Potential Bets list, though it will be in the near future once additional algorithms are in. So I ran with this and where it lead me and have to say this is nothing short of amazing! The results are better than expected, especially in this early phase that it’s truly made me giddy.  I plan to write about this in depth during this week of blog posts however right after we’re all informed and up to date on the structure and process of how things will unfold but I’m compelled to give a brief overview.

To begin I actually came to this after having several horrible back to back result days from the potential wagers list and was determined to find what I knew had to be within grasp but for some reason I was not seeing. Understand that just because Ed and I told the developers the contents to include, the algorithms to write and what to present does not mean that I know how to use our program yet.  And this is to be expected as all this is part of the test process.  By writing about how our program is designed and the ultimate end goal which will eventually be the list of potential wagers, it made me realize that the only potential wagers currently making it on this list are the ones that we have the least algorithms for.  In other words, the majority on the list include seasoned runners who have had a lot of tries or debut races where the horses may have little or no tries but their trainer does, as an example Todd Pletcher has a big stable and it’s full of young horses and his training focus is predominately here so calculations will show stats on his maiden runners where a trainer like Neil Drysdale who has very few runners in his stable in comparison to Pletcher and Drysdale training is geared in a different direction that includes mostly seasoned horse that run on turf.  So if Neil Drysdale and multiple trainers with smaller stables enter a Maiden race with Todd Pletcher, the way the program is designed by assigning a hierarchy and then listing the ones that have an advantage over all other runners in the race will make it to our potential bet list.  So Pletcher’s runners currently will show a considerable advantage over all other runners in a race who has trainers like Drysdale’s because the algorithms that would identify his attributes are not yet included.  In this scenario Drysdale’s horse will most likely show at the bottom of the same list.  The same in reverse since Drysdale has been training for many years and our database contains data back through 2012 and today’s race conditions is for seasoned horses on the turf and Pletcher also has an entry.  More than likely in our programs current form, Drysdale would show on top of the hierarchy and Pletcher at the bottom even though we know Pletcher capable but this is an example of why we currently can not use the potential betting list.

The most important part to test betting is being open for change because there is going to be a lot of it, especially early on.  Though initially I thought that it would take 6 months before we would reach the level of daily profits, and regular bets however after I discovered what we have sitting here and that it is such a major break through that I truly see we’re going to start turning daily profits within the next 2 months! Here’s why:

Below is a screen shot of the test bets I made from culling through each race, track by track finding potential bets, viewing who had a percentage advantage over who and you’ll see we made 5 daily double wagers, hit zero, 22 exacta wagers and hit 8, 2 pick 4 wagers and hit zero, and 37 Win/Place/and or Show bets and hit 22.  This was yesterday.  Saturday I was able to figure out what I would do and because I wasn’t able to wager due to the interruption of the internet connection I logged what I would have bet and the results of these were similar.  The only difference is I did not do any exotic wagers beyond daily doubles and exactas.  What the results say is right now we should only be betting win/place/show with an occasional exacta or daily double bet until the algorithms tell us otherwise.

Click on image to enlarge

In closing today’s post I’d like to give you this weeks planned schedule. Keeping in mind that I am only one person doing all these tasks and much is yet to be accomplished;  I plan to use Tues through Thursday or maybe even Friday to post all the particulars and then we’ll resume test betting either Friday or Saturday which will no longer include the list of potential bets though between now and then I’ll let you know how this will also unfold. At this juncture it is imperative for all of us to be on the same page so to speak to know where we’re heading, what to expect and when. 

I sense Ed’s presence and its always with a smile upon us.

No Internet, No Bets through Sunday

Susan asked me to remind everyone she will be without Internet service through Sunday. She posted potential bets for tomorrow (both full and actual) but will NOT be placing any bets on these or any other races through Sunday. Susan posted the potentials because she wanted you all to be able to see how the betting tool is working and the progress being made in what the tool is pulling up as the algorithms are implemented and refined.

Cindy

FULL LIST POTENTIALS VS ACTUAL POTENTIAL BETS

Want to start by noting we added links to the navigation bar and we’ll begin posting these two reports and the wagering report on their separate pages so we can use the blog posts to stay informed. The Potential Bets – All is the full list before filters. The Potential Bets – Syndicate is where the actual potentials that we will consider betting will be posted and we’ll add the next race day’s list above the current days list for reference. Then the Wagering Report is a list of the wagers made on behalf of our syndicate the day before and the return on the investments.

Will be posting tomorrows full list in about an hour and then the actual some time before tomorrows races begin 🙂 Just depends on how long it takes to cull through. With winter storms reeking havoc, it’s a good chance there will be another day full of race card cancellations.
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The reason for posting the Full Potential Bet list and then the Actual Potential Bet list is so you can see how far we’ve come and also how far we have to go.  Over time, as we add the algorithms in, the dynamics will change and you’ll see the Full Potential Bet list become almost the same as the Actual Potential Bet list.

Since our internet will be intermittently interrupted beginning tomorrow and I won’t have the ability to even run the program to view the potential stats, I plan on using this time to write about this and also how things will unfold.

Until that time it is important to note that a good portion of the full list of potentials are not what we want to bet or consider for a bet and I’ll share with you why in a blog post next week.  The Actual Potential bet list can be considered for a bet because these are not posted until I’ve had the chance to cull through and identify the ones that can be considered for a bet. Use caution when considering plays from the Potential Bets-All list.

Potential Bet Summary for 2/16/21

Until we get the pages on the site set to publish first the Potential Bet Summary, the full list before culling through and eliminating what is not yet a strong enough stat to bet, then the Actual Potential Bet Summary, the list after Susan has sorted out what will actually be considered a bet, we’re going to post them here.

Before doing so want to also add the schedule that we’ll be working on this week which will be getting our site organized so everyone can easily access the daily information that includes these two reports and our wagering reports as well as an archive section so everyone will have access to these for reference.

Also until these are complete, and so you can see what we actually wagered I’m going to add links to the bottom of these pages for you to view.

Then we had a visit from Murphys’ Law this week as this is our official launch week and that is Cox Cable who is our local internet provider is upgrading on a large scale and has forewarned us that we will experience long periods of down time from Thursday the 18th through Sunday the 21st which will interrupt our process and during these days I will not be able to view potential bets or publish them. Rather than create any unnecessary issues I am going to use that time to put together everything you’ll need to know about our venture as we move forward. Which is something I was working aggressively towards accomplishing until the version 1 of this incredible program was launched and my focus switched to familiarizing myself with this. So I’ll use the downtime to complete this. Which will mean that Wednesdays posts will be the last one to include potential bets and most likely won’t post anything until next week when our internet service is up and running.

Here’s 2/16 list sorted from the program of potential bets:

The above lists the Actual Potential Bets Susan will consider betting for 2/16
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Below is 2/16 full list of all the programs potential bets for 2/16 before sorted:

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