What’s My Stock Worth?

Excellent question.

Before the Version 1 release and while we were in the building stage, the stock value was the amount of the initial investment of 6K.

Now that it’s released, and investors see its’ vitality, its’ worth will become whatever we set the next investment at and at this juncture we know it will be above 10K.

Because we need time to work through test betting, adjusting and tweaking as well as allowing the necessary time to integrate and then also to adjust the remaining algorithms, we anticipate that it will take a full year to realize the actual value of each share by what we’ve accomplished.  This does not mean it will take a full year before we reach the point where we issue dividends, which after this weekends break through believe will be much sooner than the six months we initially perceived. The year gives us time to build and maintain our bank to 200K, the estimated number that allows for average bets of $2K per race, and to soundly know our full monthly operating expense. In lieu of this we ask all investors to hold on to their shares for 1 year from launch date, which in our case is Valentines day 2021 and then at that time if anyone wanted to sell, equi-stats and Zen Racing Stats will always have first right of refusal for any investment shares, we would purchase back your stock for the value determined at that time if you decided to do so.  Should, however, any investor have a reason that deems necessary to sell their share before Valentines day 2022, equi-stats and Zen Racing retains first right of refusal  and the price paid for the share would only be for the initial investment amount.  In other words anyone who at this writing is already an investor, has invested 6K and they wanted to sell their share before 2/14/22, equi-stats and Zen racing would buy it back for 6K.

The reason we wanted to offer our current investors first option is because each of you has hung in there with us through thick and thin, through hurdles that sometimes didn’t seem possible to overcome; such as Ed’s illness and worrying about whether or not we’d get all his brain incorporated in before he passed as well as convincing the developers to begin developing even when we didn’t have quite enough finances in hand. This is our way of letting you know that we appreciate your belief in us and our venture and a way of thanking you monetarily for your patience and your investment.

Should you retain your shares which I do see all of you will until you wish to retire and to purchase and live on your own island, which has every possibility, I honestly believe each share will be worth at least a million.  Here’s the reason why;

Click image to enlarge

At an average bet of $2,000 per race, the payouts are off the scale.  Using the WPS results from Sunday, even though they were short of break even when we won’t be short for long and you multiply all the payouts by 2000, the end results for these wagers would have been we bet $89,200 and got back $80,350 for one day of bets.  Now consider when we have down what we should bet (which will happen) we would have passed many of the ones we right now were betting thus increasing the bottom line to a positive and we would have added more to the same line had we known to only bet this horse to show, or only to place or to win and place and so on…

For example sake because no one, even our betting program will hit all races however we do expect high numbers to hit, using the same list of 37 bets and 22 hits and taking out the cost of the bets for the 15 that lost, now your numbers look like this; $53,200 bet, $80,350 hit for a net profit of $27,150 for just one day. And this does not include exotic wagers like daily doubles or exactas so you can easily see how the numbers will go off the scale.  Multiply this $27,150 by 220 racing days in a year and that totals $5,973,000.00 and divide that by 100 shares equates to $59,730 per share for that year in dividend.  With additional algorithms, adjusting and tweaking, these numbers say for themselves why we see each share will eventually have a worth of at least a million.

That’s a pretty good return on our investment, wouldn’t you agree? 🙂

Zen Racing’s Business Structure

Click image to enlarge or Click here to download the pdf

Business

Between the two of us, before our life together and then during, Ed and I have been actively involved in the start up of seven businesses. All, with the exception of this one began without venture capital. This was not our desired way to begin a business, however, in these pre-crowd funding platform days no one would loan money on a great idea unless you had collateral.

Fortunately, neither of us let a stumbling block like not having money prevent us from moving forward. If we did we would never have made it here, to the most exceptional one of all. We used to joke with one another about this and say “What if” were words that would never be put on either of our tombstones.

So far the cost to assemble our venture is $165,000. This total includes legal and professional fees, software development, mathematician, CIW and security for which we’ve paid $120,000 towards, leaving a present balance due of $45,000. We’ve agreed to make a payment of $15,000 by the end of March and made arrangements with all parties that have a balance due to accept a monthly payment that we won’t be required to pay until we reach the point where we are operating in the black.

Since we re-opened the 20 shares we had left, we received commitments from current investors for 10 of them. I plan on holding the remaining 10 shares back until the test betting phase is complete. At that time we will open these shares to new investors that are not yet part of our group for a yet to be determined amount. Initially we were figuring an investment of $10K for each share however before realizing the monthly operating expenses we’d incur towards the essential maintenance of tweaking and adjusting our betting tool as well as other operating costs, to have enough money in hand in our betting pool to make money on our bet investments will require more. We do have outside investors chopping at the bit that are ready to plunge in when we reach this point as they see what we’ve already accomplished and what we are about ready to do and will decide on the amount required to cover for these essentials we’ll establish a per share investment then.

Next post we’ll share what this means in value towards your investment now, it’s increased worth in the very near future and then an estimated worth at the end of our first year.

Welcome Back and Some Exciting News

If you’ve read Ed’s novel “Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines”, like me, you probably found yourself surprised that the first 80 or so pages did not mention horse racing.  Especially with that cover!  I’d wager you would be even more surprised to know, so was Ed.

He initially wrote the book this way. However when our editor whose chosen way to edit is as he goes along as opposed to reading all first and then edit found when he began, he was unable to put together how Ed arrived to the point where horse racing was his entire life. Ed kept suggesting he skip to the end of the book so he would understand, however, since this was not the way Ed’s editors worked, this topic of correspondence went back and forth for several months until finally out of sheer frustration Ed’s editor read the end of the book. And when he did, he immediately put all 80 or so of those pages in front. And then how horse racing became the dominate in Ed Bain’s brain made sense to him and it did to us too.

I wanted to share this story because it is relevant to where we are in our venture now.  We’ve been saying for more than a year that we are developing an amazing program; loaded with algorithms that no one else has ever thought of, etc without being able to tell you to read the end of the book because that information part was proprietary, so you could see the same certainty that Ed and I see of our ventures success until 2/14/21 when Version 1 was released.

The build up has been great and now that version one is released I finally can fill you in and have to say my enthusiasm is so great that it can’t be fast enough, that’s how exciting all this is. We want you to see what Ed and I see. We want to let you read the end of the book first so we’re all on the same page as we move along in our venture. 

And the beginning is not rushing in, making test bets.  It’s letting you know everything first, how our venture will unfold; what our investment actually means as well as it’s value at present and in the near future, when we expect to get to the point of paying dividends and then how these will be dispersed, our structure; what we plan to accomplish in this phase of test bets, and so on and this has to be presented first before we proceed with test bets. We want everyone to know the process of these test bets, the whys and how imperative it is for me to become familiar with what we have in order to profit the most from what we’ve already accomplished.

Speaking of test bets, during the three days that our internet service provider was upgrading and our service was intermittently interrupted I had a chance to really explore what we currently have integrated in our betting program and found the place that I need to go to select our bets. And this currently is NOT what we’re displaying on our Potential Bets list, though it will be in the near future once additional algorithms are in. So I ran with this and where it lead me and have to say this is nothing short of amazing! The results are better than expected, especially in this early phase that it’s truly made me giddy.  I plan to write about this in depth during this week of blog posts however right after we’re all informed and up to date on the structure and process of how things will unfold but I’m compelled to give a brief overview.

To begin I actually came to this after having several horrible back to back result days from the potential wagers list and was determined to find what I knew had to be within grasp but for some reason I was not seeing. Understand that just because Ed and I told the developers the contents to include, the algorithms to write and what to present does not mean that I know how to use our program yet.  And this is to be expected as all this is part of the test process.  By writing about how our program is designed and the ultimate end goal which will eventually be the list of potential wagers, it made me realize that the only potential wagers currently making it on this list are the ones that we have the least algorithms for.  In other words, the majority on the list include seasoned runners who have had a lot of tries or debut races where the horses may have little or no tries but their trainer does, as an example Todd Pletcher has a big stable and it’s full of young horses and his training focus is predominately here so calculations will show stats on his maiden runners where a trainer like Neil Drysdale who has very few runners in his stable in comparison to Pletcher and Drysdale training is geared in a different direction that includes mostly seasoned horse that run on turf.  So if Neil Drysdale and multiple trainers with smaller stables enter a Maiden race with Todd Pletcher, the way the program is designed by assigning a hierarchy and then listing the ones that have an advantage over all other runners in the race will make it to our potential bet list.  So Pletcher’s runners currently will show a considerable advantage over all other runners in a race who has trainers like Drysdale’s because the algorithms that would identify his attributes are not yet included.  In this scenario Drysdale’s horse will most likely show at the bottom of the same list.  The same in reverse since Drysdale has been training for many years and our database contains data back through 2012 and today’s race conditions is for seasoned horses on the turf and Pletcher also has an entry.  More than likely in our programs current form, Drysdale would show on top of the hierarchy and Pletcher at the bottom even though we know Pletcher capable but this is an example of why we currently can not use the potential betting list.

The most important part to test betting is being open for change because there is going to be a lot of it, especially early on.  Though initially I thought that it would take 6 months before we would reach the level of daily profits, and regular bets however after I discovered what we have sitting here and that it is such a major break through that I truly see we’re going to start turning daily profits within the next 2 months! Here’s why:

Below is a screen shot of the test bets I made from culling through each race, track by track finding potential bets, viewing who had a percentage advantage over who and you’ll see we made 5 daily double wagers, hit zero, 22 exacta wagers and hit 8, 2 pick 4 wagers and hit zero, and 37 Win/Place/and or Show bets and hit 22.  This was yesterday.  Saturday I was able to figure out what I would do and because I wasn’t able to wager due to the interruption of the internet connection I logged what I would have bet and the results of these were similar.  The only difference is I did not do any exotic wagers beyond daily doubles and exactas.  What the results say is right now we should only be betting win/place/show with an occasional exacta or daily double bet until the algorithms tell us otherwise.

Click on image to enlarge

In closing today’s post I’d like to give you this weeks planned schedule. Keeping in mind that I am only one person doing all these tasks and much is yet to be accomplished;  I plan to use Tues through Thursday or maybe even Friday to post all the particulars and then we’ll resume test betting either Friday or Saturday which will no longer include the list of potential bets though between now and then I’ll let you know how this will also unfold. At this juncture it is imperative for all of us to be on the same page so to speak to know where we’re heading, what to expect and when. 

I sense Ed’s presence and its always with a smile upon us.

No Internet, No Bets through Sunday

Susan asked me to remind everyone she will be without Internet service through Sunday. She posted potential bets for tomorrow (both full and actual) but will NOT be placing any bets on these or any other races through Sunday. Susan posted the potentials because she wanted you all to be able to see how the betting tool is working and the progress being made in what the tool is pulling up as the algorithms are implemented and refined.

Cindy

FULL LIST POTENTIALS VS ACTUAL POTENTIAL BETS

Want to start by noting we added links to the navigation bar and we’ll begin posting these two reports and the wagering report on their separate pages so we can use the blog posts to stay informed. The Potential Bets – All is the full list before filters. The Potential Bets – Syndicate is where the actual potentials that we will consider betting will be posted and we’ll add the next race day’s list above the current days list for reference. Then the Wagering Report is a list of the wagers made on behalf of our syndicate the day before and the return on the investments.

Will be posting tomorrows full list in about an hour and then the actual some time before tomorrows races begin 🙂 Just depends on how long it takes to cull through. With winter storms reeking havoc, it’s a good chance there will be another day full of race card cancellations.
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The reason for posting the Full Potential Bet list and then the Actual Potential Bet list is so you can see how far we’ve come and also how far we have to go.  Over time, as we add the algorithms in, the dynamics will change and you’ll see the Full Potential Bet list become almost the same as the Actual Potential Bet list.

Since our internet will be intermittently interrupted beginning tomorrow and I won’t have the ability to even run the program to view the potential stats, I plan on using this time to write about this and also how things will unfold.

Until that time it is important to note that a good portion of the full list of potentials are not what we want to bet or consider for a bet and I’ll share with you why in a blog post next week.  The Actual Potential bet list can be considered for a bet because these are not posted until I’ve had the chance to cull through and identify the ones that can be considered for a bet. Use caution when considering plays from the Potential Bets-All list.

Potential Bet Summary for 2/16/21

Until we get the pages on the site set to publish first the Potential Bet Summary, the full list before culling through and eliminating what is not yet a strong enough stat to bet, then the Actual Potential Bet Summary, the list after Susan has sorted out what will actually be considered a bet, we’re going to post them here.

Before doing so want to also add the schedule that we’ll be working on this week which will be getting our site organized so everyone can easily access the daily information that includes these two reports and our wagering reports as well as an archive section so everyone will have access to these for reference.

Also until these are complete, and so you can see what we actually wagered I’m going to add links to the bottom of these pages for you to view.

Then we had a visit from Murphys’ Law this week as this is our official launch week and that is Cox Cable who is our local internet provider is upgrading on a large scale and has forewarned us that we will experience long periods of down time from Thursday the 18th through Sunday the 21st which will interrupt our process and during these days I will not be able to view potential bets or publish them. Rather than create any unnecessary issues I am going to use that time to put together everything you’ll need to know about our venture as we move forward. Which is something I was working aggressively towards accomplishing until the version 1 of this incredible program was launched and my focus switched to familiarizing myself with this. So I’ll use the downtime to complete this. Which will mean that Wednesdays posts will be the last one to include potential bets and most likely won’t post anything until next week when our internet service is up and running.

Here’s 2/16 list sorted from the program of potential bets:

The above lists the Actual Potential Bets Susan will consider betting for 2/16
(click photo to enlarge)
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Below is 2/16 full list of all the programs potential bets for 2/16 before sorted:

Click on photo to enlarge

Odds % Payout Table & Tomorrows Potential Bets

Hello everyone,

Tomorrow is another race day and I’m currently culling through the full list of potential bets. When I have the filtered list ready I will post the actual potential bets here. This isn’t exactly how I had planned for things to unfold as my normal person is very organized. Even if the organization only makes sense to me. LOL However things came together over the last few days on how to apply these stats so I found myself ready to begin our test bets. Because of this I haven’t been able to fill you in on everything that I wanted to before we began testing and then I realized that this may actually be the best way. By starting first, posting everything, then walking everyone through the decision process as we are in motion that things would make a lot more sense to everyone because you will see the bets we select first.

That said, I do have a lot of catching up to do and in the process did not realize that tomorrow, Monday was a holiday and most of the tracks are running. So my thoughts of filling everyone in about what we bet today has to be delayed for another day so I have the time to look at tomorrow’s potentials. First is the list of all potentials before Susan applies filters;

2/15/21 Potential Bets Before Susan applies filters

and

Below is a post I started so I could share additional factors that impact our decision as to what we should bet and during the week when things are quieter, I will expand on this. I’ll leave this as is right now because I do think the images self explain and this will give everyone some time to absorb some of what we’ve already put together.

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The most important document to keep with you at all times when deciding to place or pass a bet. Here’s an image for reference and below that is a link so everyone can download a copy too.

Click Here to download pdf

Our first official day of test bets included 2 passes; Tampa Race 5 and Gulfstream Race 6. Even though each one we decided Not to bet won, our reason for passing is solid.

We Could have bet this horse between 9/5 and 2/1 which equates to 33% however horse paid $3.80, just below even money so we passed based on the percentage of the stat. As stated the horses can win even though we passed however if we kept betting horses below their hit rate, we’d have to have a near 100% return to make money betting this way.
We Could have bet this horse between 3/2 and 7/5 which equates to 40% hit rate however horse paid $3.60, just below even money so we passed based on the percentage of the stat. As stated the horses can win even though we passed however if we kept betting horses below their hit rate, we’d have to have a near 100% return on our investment in order to make money betting this way.
This screen shot shows the true needle in a haystack when placing bets. Because this stat not only is missing an enormous amount of algorithms, it shows a high number for 3rd verses win which is what shows up in our potential bet summary list. Promise to elaborate later though I wanted to include this now so you will see why sometimes I will have a bet that we’ll make even if it is not currently showing on the standout list. There are other betting opportunities that we can take advantage of by understanding these statistics. We do not always have to bet Win to win.

We Broke Our Maiden!!!

Congratulations everyone. Will write a lot more tomorrow but just had to acknowledge our first win. After track cancellations and scratches we were left with three bets (one not listed that has yet to go off at GP in Race 10, we have the 5 to Show) because we cancelled the bet on Tampa Race 5 and Gulfstream Race 6 due to odds verses the percentages. We bet Tampa Race 8, the 7 to win and show and lost and then we bet the race that broke our Maiden, Aqueduct Race 7, we bet the 6 to Place. Even though he won at great odds, the percentages said to place and so I listened. This will now make sense of yesterday’s comment when stating that sometimes we will bet to place and they win. There are times we’ll bet to win and they place and there are also times when we’ll bet both Win, Place. By following the stats and their consistency we will make us a great deal of money over the long term.

Will be in touch again tomorrow about what happened today.

From my heart, Thank You for being part of this venture. Without You this wouldn’t have happened. We’re in the process of fulfilling Eds lifelong dream.