Here’s tomorrow’s Potential Bets Report: 12-12-21 PB
Ed first started tracking his Layoff and Claim statistics, separated by sprints (7 furlongs and under) and routes (7 ½ furlongs and more) around 1994, which was at a time when I hadn’t yet made a wager, at least a bet based from my own decisions though I loved to go to live racing whenever we had the chance. Prior to his recording these statistics we had the opportunity to view many races which left each of us with an impression of how certain trainers performed and perceived some excelled in route races while others seemed to win more races in sprints.
We lived just outside Washington, DC and considered our home tracks Laurel and Pimlico. At the time there was a noted trainer, a former Green Beret who was known to all of us locals partly because of the somewhat quirky black out of shape hat he often wore accompanied by a bow tie, usually red or black in color, when entering his runners in a Stakes race named Richard Small. “Dickie” as he was often referred to conditioned some great runners; Broad Brush, Concern, Valley Crossing, and a hometown favorite filly named Star Minister.
Those of us who have been around racing a long while might recall Star Minister stopped running when she was whipped. She actually turned her head while in flight and snarled at her rider Andrea Seefeldt after she was whipped for the first and last time. So Small instructed Seefeldt to get the lead and then to sit stock still no matter what in order for Star Minister to win her first race. The day after this win, the media negatively went after Seefeldt and the ride she gave Star Minister even though they won and it was then that Dickie Small forever gained Ed’s and my respect because he adamantly stood up for Andrea; stating she was doing exactly what she was told. After, and every time Star Minister ran it was an event. The attendance at the track nearly filled and the crowd would cheer Star Minister home and clapped praise for Seefeldt’s ride.
By the time I started to wager Small trained exclusively for the Meyerhoff brothers (former owners of these two Maryland race tracks) and because of the horses he trained our perception of Small was he performed best in routes. So when Ed published his Layoff and Claim statistics we were surprised to learn that Smalls Maryland circuit numbers exploded in sprint races, especially on the 3rd and 4th race after a layoff where his numbers were 40 and 44%. This was all I needed to give me the reason to finally begin making my own wagers.
Around the same time a similar surprise came about with Southern California trainer Neil Drysdale who most of us perceive as a flat out route trainer especially on the turf when we discovered his numbers from 1995 to 1997 in sprint races looked like this: 1st after a Layoff 20% (10 wins from 50 tries), 2nd 17% (2 wins from 12 tries), 3rd 20% (2 wins from 10 tries) to 88% on 4th after a layoff in a sprint (7 wins from 8 tries). Maybe this 88% stat was the cause of Ed adding the .88 after everything we sold 🙂
It was from these two trainer’s stats that I gained an innate understanding of statistics and how to apply these to bets. This was also when Ed discovered the Spike play and then forever focused on this within each trainer’s 4-race form cycle. The stats were an indicator of how powerful a form cycle really is and understanding this and knowing when to place a bet as well as when to pass is the secret to our success and guess what?
All of our stats in our betting program are Based off of this 4-race form cycle on Layoffs, Claims, Debuts and Won Last Race! All separated by track, class, distance, surface and soon by surface conditions
When asked what is included in the ratings that our program calculates, the 4-race form cycle is the main component followed by what we most recently added which is every algorithm Bill Benter discusses in this article. Benter Article
After having a chance to view the Potential Bet reports and the results of these since we went live October 3rd, perhaps now is a good time to re-read Benter’s article for a refresher and to fully grasp and answer everyone’s question of what’s included in the ratings.
Though the progression doesn’t stop here. At present we’re producing 63 to 65% in the money finishers from the 147 racetracks we have included in our database and that is, to say the very least, pretty dam good, though not time to rest as this is not the final goal.
Benter’s module, though less intricate (lacking the 4-race form cycle) and his information was deciphered on two thoroughbred tracks in Hong Kong verses our 147, his produced on average 70% winners, many on lower odds than the average handicapper, including Ed would accept but 70% winners none the less and knowing which ones to bet and which ones to pass is the reason why Benter made a billion dollars.
So what’s next?
The best way to view our program, what we’ve built and where we’re at is to simulate this towards building a vehicle from scratch. You put together the chasse, add wheels, an engine, an enclosure, seats and windows and though you can take this now mobile vehicle out for a drive it would be best to not go too far until you’ve installed the brakes, a gas pedal, a steering wheel and conveniences such as air conditioning; needed during the summer or when you drive to southern states like Florida and heat for when you decide to drive to Nebraska, which is exactly what we’re about to do and which will also assist in our reaching on average 70% wins, though none of this could be accomplished without first building the base.
We’ll start by adding Pedigree; how each sire, broodmare sire and even broodmare performs on all surfaces, dirt, turf, all weather, then on all surface conditions; wet, wet fast, muddy, sloppy, good, firm, soft, yielding. Then what age the sire, broodmare sire and broodmare produce wins; 2 years old, 3, and so on. Then at each specific distance (no longer grouping together all sprints and routes) but rather for each distance. Then at what class level and then combine class levels with age and so on. In other words every possible scenario and when a horse’s pedigree shows an advantage over the other runners in this race either due to age and or surface and or surface condition this positive would be added to and included in a horse’s ratings. If today’s runner does not perform well after calculating the pedigree then there is nothing added to this runner’s rating.
Pedigree will be calculated overall and then by each track, class, distance and surface.
Next is workouts. How a trainer performs when their horse has a workout and then entered within 3 days of a race, then 4 days, then 5 days, then how they perform with a workout and then entered at each specific distance, at each specific class, each specific surface and surface conditions.
Then how this pedigree with this workout performs with today’s trainer with today’s jockey and on and on….. So from this you can see how the module’s perfected with each sizing up every runner to one another in today’s race conditions and this is how we’ll reach our ultimate goal of on average 70% winners.
The difference of where we are now (mobile and able to drive) and where we were before our October 3rd launch date (without the chasse thereby rendering us immobile) is that because I have a thorough understanding of how to apply statistics along with a great deal of innate knowledge of pedigree and how it applies to different surfaces and surface conditions, ectara that from the stats the Potential Bet list provides I am able to determine what to bet, win, place and or show and also what to pass; HOWEVER, 147 tracks is a lot of tracks to cull through. And even though they’re not all open at the same time, this still leaves a minimum of 10 on any given day and can be up to 15 or 20 on weekend to cull through which is a lot to do.
Not to mention that for a long while we’ll be tweaking and adjusting as we add data points and as I make us our bets and the best way to know what adjustments to make is by keeping records and that is what we’re in the process of currently setting up.
So this gives you an update on our current status.
Though we bet more than we won Breeder’s Cup weekend, even though we cashed on a lot of races, there were favorites that came in, fortunately I continued to bet on Sunday and recovered just about the total loss from the last race at Belmont when the program hit a $47 winner.
Now for some fun stuff. Russell Staggs, one of our shareholders who designed his silks to include a tribute to Ed by embroidering Let em roll at the quarter pole broke his Maiden as a first time thoroughbred owner when his horse Doc Amster confidently rode to victory as the longest shot in the race and Our Program Pick this Sunday. Congratulations Russell. Thank you from my heart for your tribute to Ed. Here’s a photo of Doc Amster’s win, and the program pick.
Happy Breeders Cup Day Everyone!
I’m posting All of our Bets here. Sorry that they are not in any order however the only way I have the chance to post these is to copy and paste. Wish US and all of You the best of luck today!
11/06 12:05 PM Del Mar 10 $0.50 SU 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 11 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 $36.00
11/06 12:05 PM Del Mar 10 $0.20 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 6 / 11 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 $14.40
11/06 12:05 PM Del Mar 10 $0.50 SU 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 11 $36.00
11/06 12:05 PM Del Mar 10 $0.20 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 11 $14.40
11/06 12:01 PM Del Mar 10 $0.50 TRI 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 11 $27.00
11/06 12:00 PM Del Mar 10 $1.00 TRI 1, 3, 6, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 11 $36.00
11/06 11:57 AM Del Mar 9 $20.00 WS 14 $40.00
11/06 11:56 AM Del Mar 9 $0.50 TRI 1, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 / 3, 6, 9, 11, 12 / 2 $26.00
11/06 11:55 AM Del Mar 9 $0.50 TRI 3, 6 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 / 2 $12.00
11/06 11:54 AM Del Mar 9 $0.50 TRI 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 / 2, 3, 6, 9, 11, 12 / 9, 11, 13, 14, 15 $145.00
11/06 11:52 AM Del Mar 9 $1.00 TRI 3, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 / 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 $144.00
11/06 11:36 AM Del Mar 6 $20.00 DB 1, 3, 5 / 7 $60.00
11/06 11:36 AM Del Mar 6 $10.00 DB 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 7 $80.00
11/06 11:36 AM Del Mar 7 $10.00 EXA 9 / 7 $10.00
11/06 11:36 AM Del Mar 7 $20.00 EXA 7 / 9 $20.00
11/06 11:36 AM Del Mar 7 $4.00 EXA (BOXW) 7 / 2, 4, 5, 8, 10 $40.00
11/06 11:36 AM Del Mar 7 $10.00 EXA (BOXW) 7 / 1, 3, 6, 11, 12 $100.00
11/06 11:36 AM Del Mar 7 $6.00 EXA (BOX) 7, 8 $12.00
11/06 11:36 AM Del Mar 7 $1.00 TRI 7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11 $60.00
11/06 11:36 AM Del Mar 7 $0.50 TRI 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 / 7, 9, 11 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11 $80.00
11/06 11:27 AM Del Mar 5 $10.00 DB 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 / 5 $120.00
11/06 11:27 AM Del Mar 5 $20.00 DB 3, 4, 9 / 5 $60.00
11/06 11:25 AM Del Mar 5 $2.00 EXA 3, 9 / 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15 $40.00
11/06 11:24 AM Del Mar 5 $2.00 EXA 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15 / 3, 9 $36.00
11/06 11:23 AM Del Mar 5 $0.20 SU 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15 / 3, 4, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 / 4, 6 $79.20
11/06 11:22 AM Del Mar 5 $0.20 SU 3, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 / 4, 6 $72.00
11/06 11:21 AM Del Mar 5 $1.00 TRI 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 / 3, 4, 9 / 3, 4, 6, 9 $90.00
11/06 11:21 AM Del Mar 5 $2.00 TRI 3, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 / 3, 4, 6, 9 $120.00
11/06 11:47 AM Del Mar 9 $2.00 EXA 6 / 1, 2, 10, 11, 12 $10.00
11/06 11:47 AM Del Mar 9 $2.00 EXA 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 / 6 $22.00
11/06 11:46 AM Del Mar 9 $2.00 EXA 6 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 $22.00
11/06 11:06 AM BC All Turf Pick 4 1 $0.50 P4 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 15 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12 / 3 / 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15 $192.00
11/06 11:02 AM Del Mar 11 $0.50 TRI 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 16 / 7, 8, 9, 16 / 1, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 $81.00
11/06 10:56 AM Del Mar 11 $0.50 TRI 7, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 / 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 / 1, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 $203.50
11/06 10:54 AM Del Mar 11 $1.00 TRI 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 / 13 / 1, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 $84.00
11/06 10:53 AM Del Mar 11 $1.00 TRI 13 / 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 / 1, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 $84.00
11/06 11:45 AM Del Mar 9 $50.00 PLC 6 $50.00
11/06 11:17 AM Del Mar 5 $2.00 EXA (BOXW) 4 / 3, 9 $8.00
11/06 11:16 AM Del Mar 5 $6.00 EXA (BOXW) 4 / 3, 9 $24.00
11/06 11:16 AM Del Mar 5 $20.00 EXA (BOX) 3, 9 $40.00
11/06 11:15 AM Del Mar 5 $50.00 WIN 9 $50.00
11/06 10:15 AM Del Mar 9 $20.00 EXA (BOXW) 9 / 3, 6 $80.00
11/06 10:15 AM Del Mar 9 $50.00 EXA (BOX) 3, 6 $100.00
11/06 10:13 AM BC All Turf Pick 4 $0.50 P4 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 / 6 / 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 $1,008.00
11/06 9:53 AM Del Mar 4 $10.00 EXA 5 / 1, 3, 4, 6 $40.00
DMR Race 7: $1 PK6 7/2,9/3,4,6,11,12,14/1,3,6,8/13/1,3-9$384.00
$10 DBL 7/1-9 $90.00
DMR Race 10:
$0.10 SPR 1,3,8/1-11/1-11/11$21.60
R$0.10 SPR 1-11/1,3,8/1-11/11$21.60
R$0.10 SPR 1-11/1,3,8/11/1-11$21.60
R$0.10 SPR 1,3,8/1-11/11/1-11$21.60
$1 PK6 3/1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12/1, 5, 6/7/3, 4, 5, 9, 12/2, 6, 10, 11, 14 $600
$1 PK6 1, 2, 4, 8, 11, 12/6, 8, 10/5/7/3, 4, 5, 9, 12/2, 6, 10, 11, 14 $450
$1 PK6 1, 2, 4, 8, 11, 12/6, 8, 10/5/4, 5/3, 4, 5, 9, 12/6, 10 $360.00
$1.00 PK6 on 1-4,8,11,12/3/1,5,6/4,5,7/3-5,9,12/6,10 $630
$1.00 PK6 on 3/1,2,6,8-12/1,5,6/4,5/3-5,9,12/6,10 $480
R$1 PK6 3/6,8,10/1,5,6/6/3-5,9,12/6,10 $90
R$1 PK6 1,2,4,8,11,12/10/1,5,6/6/3-5,9,12/6,10 $180.00
TO ACCESS REPORTS FOR 11/5/21:
Click The Breeder’s Cup Week 2021 Link (above navigation bar)
Then Type this case sensitive password in order to view reports:
BC2021FRI (Password to the reports Will change daily)
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE and Let em roll at the quarter pole!
Happy Breeder’s Cup!
This is my favorite time of year in horse racing and my favorite all time sporting event. Although I really don’t follow any other sports, LOL
It’s when the true champions from around the globe converge to compete with the best of the best and we have the good fortune to witness some of the most exciting races that we’ll ever have the opportunity to see.
Since this is the first year that we’ll be betting the Breeder’s Cup with the use of our program and I have the confidence that we’ll profit, I came to the decision that we should take 50% of any winnings (wins minus the cost of the investments) and pay everyone of us dividends according to our shares.
In other words, say we gross $50,000 and invested $10,000 to do so, this would leave $40,000. Half would go into Zen and the other $20,000 would be split according to shares. In this scenario 1 share would net $200., 1.5 shares $300., 2 shares $400. and so on.
Because identifying what to bet is half the sequence, it’s the then figuring out the best way to bet that requires the most concentration, I won’t be able to fill you in throughout each day while betting, however I’ve asked my assistant Jon to convey any sizeable wins we have as well as if we’re alive in any serial race wager.
Here is the link to the Potential Bet List and Del Mar Page which IS PASSWORD protected: PB + DMR 11-5-21
Type this case sensitive password in order to view reports: BC2021FRI
Password to this page will change daily and can only be viewed here, at the end of this blog post after logging in
Wishing everyone the best of luck and an enjoyable, profitable week and most of all safe journey’s!
Let em roll at the quarter pole!
For every action there is a reaction and as expected when we went live, (the action) there would be some necessary tweaking (the reaction).
The first one I noticed was there were way too many potential bets making it to the potential bet list and this proposed an immediate challenge by having a great deal of races to cull through and became quite noticeable last Saturday and Sunday when these were the first two days that I bet for us that produced a loss. (Click on the Wagering Reports link in the header bar to view).
Thankfully I lived with, in my opinion, one of the best horseplayers to ever exist, who understood the value of keeping records because it’s through these records that he was able to make his adjustments and the same applies to our program although once identified I must rely on the developers and money to input these changes and when we identify something that needs to adjust, this fits us into their schedule.
Keeping records on so many tracks can be taxing, even with a program that tally’s each day’s results because in order to know precisely what requires tweaking, I must transpose the results data to spreadsheets which at present doesn’t contain all the fields that will aid in making a decision so for now I must add this data manually.
Everything will eventually be included but building a program of this magnitude is a process and since we’re traveling to a frontier that hasn’t been traveled before, we can only make these adjustments as we move along.
Now that we’ve arrived I feel it is the time for me to share something personal about myself that some investors may not know because we’ve only recently been acquainted. We’re getting ready to take off, literally fly, and I made it here while dealing with sometimes rather debilitating health issues for quite a long time.
Diagnosed in 2011 with undifferentiated connective tissue disease which in layman terms means I unfortunately have multiple auto-immunes of which includes lupus, RA, sojourn, and scleroderma (the ones that have been identified) though I’ve been fighting these since 1998. I’ve chosen to deal with this and all my other illnesses (of which there are more diagnosed at the Mayo Clinic around the same year) holistically and honestly believe that the reason I am still here, standing and functioning is because of this choice. However, this does not mean that I don’t face a daily challenge and mine is to keep going no matter what card I’m dealt. I share this with you today because I would like you to know why there are times when it takes me a little while before I post updates.
I am euphoric that we’re here! This energy alone supplies me with much though even as good as it is that we reached this milestone, there are still some tweaks that need to be worked through and/or things that require adjustments so even though we’re betting there are days that I am not. When the right thing to do is pull back.
You’ll see from the betting reports posted for 10/7 through 10/10 that even though we’re still profitable because we continued to profit last Thursday and Friday, we lost Saturday and Sunday. So when this happened I made the decision to pull back in order to delve into the records to know where to adjust the program. These adjustments can take some time, (a week or two as opposed to months) and money and since my whole goal is and always will be is for us to make money using the program that we built, when something that needs an adjustment, even if this takes a little time to adjust, it’s absolutely necessary to wait making sizeable wagers. The tweaking and adjusting is expected and doesn’t prevent us from moving forward.
I also shared about my health because when things are moving, I move along with it, sometimes push and the push can be hard in order to make it happen and as a result I’m sometimes faced with having to recoup which happened the past two Monday’s and Tuesdays which puts me behind and is the reason I haven’t been able to supply updates.
Currently I am in the process of training my two very capable assistants, which takes time as most things we need to accomplish has to become realized as we continue forward. The primary goal is for Jon, my personal assistant to keep you informed and to also prepare every report I need each day in order to make our bets and this also takes time. Jon is ready, willing and able to do everything and anything to assist us yet he has to wait until I can let him know what he can assist me with which is the message I wish to relay today.
In closing I tried to have all the PB Reports for last week published with the results for everyone to view. This also requires manual input and now that the weekend’s arrived I plan to look through the program and make us some bets so these reports will be posted next week. Though these actually change during the day due to race day changes on track condition surface, jockey switches and scratches, a good portion of the days potential wagers remain. We’re currently working on 10/7 through 10/9. 10/10 is ready and can be viewed at the header link titled Results All. This date is there because I was able to record the results from the program before the update not realizing that I removed the previous dates when updating :0 which is par for something new. LOL Now that I understand that the updates wipe out the previous days results I’m regularly recording these each morning though they still require clean up in order for the results to show on one sheet and this is also a task that I’ll be relying on Jon to do.
BTW Jon is one of the best handicappers that Ed and I have ever had the pleasure to know. His betting decisions parallel Ed and Ed and Jon never physically met! So his being my assistant is such a welcome and a great happening for us all.
Everything’s changed now that the betting program is ready and we embark on the reason we put this venture together which is for me to make our wagers and to make all of us money.
Because of this and some anticipated necessary tweaking that is expected when something is new and unlike anything done before, I’m currently unable to determine what we are going to publish on our site in the way of reports. I expect to be able to make this decision within the next few weeks after I’ve had the time to use what we built.
Developing the program has also given birth to some new tasks; some essential to be performed by me as they maintain current information throughout the day and others that I’ll be able to hand over to my assistants though this involves some training. In light of this I initially plan to make our bets Thursday through Sunday and work with my assistants regarding these tasks at the beginning of each week.
The ultimate goal is to free me up from all tasks not pertaining to betting so I can “Get into Zen Mode” and truly be all I can be, for us.
As handicappers one of the things we share is an understanding of mindset in order to make sound decisions. One that is completely free of any outside influence so you can truly concentrate on the task at hand.
Ed and I had an unspoken understanding that included complete seclusion from one another when viewing PPs and concentrating on his stats all the way through to attending the races either at an OTB or the racetrack, where we rarely spoke.
Ed used to say that the only person who could ever influence his bets is me and for me it was him because of our mutual respect however influence is Not always good. He saw things that I didn’t and I saw things that he didn’t and sometimes the conversion of such can derail a good plan. So over time we learned solitude, quiet, and keeping our opinions to ourselves, works best. It also helps towards keeping a positive approach no matter how many bets in a row you lose. Positive mindset is crucial to making a living in this sport.
Everything Ed did was well thought out. There were countless times after years passed when I noticed what he envisioned, something he knew would be better done a certain way, a way that would never have entered my mind, and lo and behold it was and usually a great deal better which only increased my respect. So when I asked Ed what he would like to call our venture he immediately replied “Zen Racing Stats” which took me by surprise because I naturally expected he’d include his name somewhere in this. So instead of asking him how he came up with this name, I gave this some thought first and then I knew. It wasn’t just for the significance the Zen mode represents, it was for where the mindset had to be, in order for our venture to come about. Ed’s Zen worksheet says it all:
And would like to let you know that we’ve added a link to the navigation bar called Wagering Reports where you can view the wagers we’ve made. They would normally be posted the following day however since this is one of the tasks I plan to hand over to my assistant Aubri the bets that we make this Thursday through Sunday won’t be posted until next week. Though the bets we made our first official day Sunday, 10/3 are now listed there. We actually did better than I realized cause I counted the wagers made that were later cancelled. Same profit, just less invested.
Should we have an outstanding day I promise to let you know so you won’t have to wait till next week when the wagering reports will be posted. Looking forward to sharing some great days!
Now that we’re rolling……… :), there is much to set up so until all is ready I plan to work on everything to accomplish this Mon thru Thursday for the first few weeks and bet for us Friday through Sunday. After which I still plan to take off every Monday and Tuesday as my assistant And very good friend Jon so eloquently said “Nobody would worry about missing a Show bet at Fort Erie on a Monday!”
Also want to let you know that we’ll post all wagers that we’ve made on the link above called Wagering Reports.
We made it! And Ed’s smiling upon us because he and I know for certain that we could Not have accomplished this without YOU! Thank you from the bottom of our hearts.
Can’t help but to be emotional today. It’s been a long and sometimes winding journey which pretty much sums up Ed’s and my life together, full of excitement with very few moments that were ever mundane. Wouldn’t trade it for the world.
And since I have quite a task at hand getting ready for our first day, I’m going to be brief. The stats are In and they Are powerful though there are Way…….. Too…. Many to cull through which means that we’ll have to make some adjustments. Nothing that will delay our progress, just that the potential bet list should be something that we should be able to go to and comfortably bet after the days scratches and changes and right now the program is pulling up over 50.
The Potential Bet List should only be listing horses with a large advantage that is defined by the ratings over the next runner in each race. As we move along I plan to get into the details of all this, what the ratings mean and how the program comes up with the potential order of finish but for now the horses showing up in the list have about a 10 point rating advantage which isn’t enough because there are still a lot of runners within the top three that are winning verses listing the precise winner. This is OK for exotic wagering however since our wagers will be around 70 to 75% across the board which can be win place and show or just place and show or just show, deciding with each bet, this list should be a fairly quick go to each day that would afford me the time to delve into exotics.
To give you an idea of what to expect. I will cull through the races this evening and then tomorrow after scratches I will rerun the program so it recalculates the changes for todays conditions. As an example, each change can change the race dynamics so if today’s race was to be on the turf but it rained and the race was taken off the turf, the projected outcome would change so we’ve designed the program that I can keep up with each change. So I’m able to adjust, pass or play according to each days card. This is a great feature in many ways because it takes into account pedigree, age, race conditions, gender, jockey switches, surface conditions so say it rained at Gulfstream and they remained on the turf however the turf is no longer firm and is now listed as Good, pedigree matters so I am able to run the program to recalculate this which then helps me decide what to do.
The program will continue to evolve as right now it truly is in it’s infancy user friendly wise. The ultimate goal is to be able to make the across the board bet decisions within an hour each day and then I’ll spend additional hours looking through races for potential exotic bets. Though it’s important to note that I’ll require complete solitude in order for me to be the best I can be for us. I am grateful for my assistant Jon who in his own right is an excellent handicapper, one of the few people we had the pleasure to know that bet very similar to Ed so he has a great understanding of what is involved when making bets. So while I’m working at increasing our bank roll and soon our monthly income, Jon will be taking care of posting the wagers that I made the previous day which will include the results so there’s full disclosure.
After tomorrow, our official first day we’ll show you where you’ll be able to view everything and in a short time we’ll be making videos so you can see the rocket ship we all built.
Without further ado I have quite an evening ahead of me. Know I probably won’t sleep much tonight cause this is exciting and am so happy that we’re finally here, yet at present this is time consuming and in order for me to be at my best I’ll sign off here.
It’s time for us to enjoy the ride 🙂
As we come close to the finish line, it’s time to discuss what we put together, the structure, the why, the how and the reason we formed this business in the first place. Which is to make All of us, everyone who has patiently rated their position in this route race, along with the late comers who wish that they had invested earlier, before the buy in exploded, a lot of $$$$$.
And in order to make all of us a lot of money it’s imperative that I alone am privy to this daily output of information because I am the one who will be making our bets.
I say this as straight forward and candid as I possibly can because everyone wants to know the programs daily selections so they can make their own wagers and though I completely understand and admit that I would wish for the same, if I were to let this happen we would fail.
And Ed and I didn’t give our life, his unmatched knowledge and experience to this venture, nor did each of you invest for one person to profit all. It’s that simple.
Our structure is designed to protect everyone who invested, not one. And I am so confident in our success that I not only personally put forth all my money in order to keep this venture rolling, I am willing to double the amount of any capital invested now through the next few weeks in order to have a large enough betting pool to get us to profitable quick.
Because I understand that what we have would greatly enhance everyone’s personal betting decisions I want to provide something. I realize at this moment, prior to when all the validations are in that the Potential Bet list has been less than stellar and when I have chosen to bet for us I haven’t been able to confidently use the Potential Bet list to make our wagers though I am aware that this will change in a few short weeks so I plan to continue to daily post these.
And since most everyone said they enjoyed a great deal of wins from the full card reports we posted for Del Mar and Saratoga, once we’re rolling, I plan to randomly post a full card from one of the tracks running each day.
When we cross the finish line our top rated selections will be winning on average 70% of the time so I plan to bet and hit a lot of multiple race wagers; Pick 3s, 4s, 5s and 6s, and quite a few daily doubles.
Our program was purposely built to be used by one person, and all features included are ones to greatly benefit in my making our decisions. One that I’ll rely on most enables the race day changes throughout the day to include the; scratches, surface, surface changes and conditions as well as change in jockey. And with these changes the finishing positions and ratings can change too. As an example if the race is taken off the turf, there normally would be a lot of scratches and the horses that remain will have a different rating than they would have, had the race remained on the turf. Another example would be the race remains on the turf but the turf surface today comes up yielding. This would change the ratings as some pedigree is bred to like a yielding turf while others only perform well on firm. Same applies for dirt. Not all horses are bred to like the slop and not all trainers perform well on a change of surface.
The program is not designed to publish reports other than summaries which is the reason why we are unable to post anything other than the top rated horse.
In closing today’s post I’d like to share something that happened around two weeks ago because by doing so I believe you will see what we actually have. I was offered several million dollars for the betting program in its completed form. Though I was not surprised by the offer because Ed and I realized what we were building, I was more taken back that this person knew who I was and what we have. Turns out this was one of the casinos VIPs they told me about and though I did give them the OK to open the door to discussions, it was not about this. I turned him down of course as selling our betting program is something I will not do. Ed and I agreed that if we were ever fortunate enough to bring this venture to fruition that we must protect this at all costs; For all the shareholders that got us here and to ensure that no one investor could be able to override all.
I sincerely hope that you can appreciate the reason for the decisions I make.
We’re closing in and truly can not wait till we roll………..