More Often Than not + Either or

I began writing this before the last leg of the Pick 6 ran at KEE today because I was going to write about the reason I chose to bet a Pick 6 at Keeneland which was because of the last 2 legs; race 9 and particularly race 10 jumped off the page at me. Then when I started to delve I noticed trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr had 2 separate runners that I viewed each had a legitimate chance to win within this multiple pick 6 race wager so I decided it was worth a potential bet.

What is Either Or you may ask? Well it’s a more often than not rule of thumb that I have on my roster. Though I go into some details regarding this play in my book Signers it was published back in 2004 (which BTW you can download for free at the above link), I’ve since learned to take this to another level and discovered a very cost effective way to consistently hit multiple race wagers for an extremely affordable investment amount. In other words You do not have to bet a lot to win a lot. And you can even add in those horse’s that you don’t have because it increases the cost of the ticket yet cause concern due to the cost of all runners on one ticket where betting an Either or you get a single in each leg by betting the either or trainer in two of the legs on two different tickets.

Before I can really explain I must share with you what Ed and I labeled our rule of thumbs and one of these was more often than not rule of thumb. Which encompasses quite a few scenarios on a conscious list that whenever we identify one of these moves, we stick to our rule of thumb. The first one that comes to mind is because it happens daily and that is, Ed and I never bet a horse that just broke its’ Maiden in a Maiden Claiming race unless today’s race is on a different surface (meaning the last race was on the dirt and today’s race is on the turf) and only consider if the horse is bred for today’s conditions, or if the last race was on a fast track and today’s surface is muddy and this horse is bred for the mud, or if the horse had a break (defined as a layoff) of 45 days or longer and the trainer shows capable of winning on this move. This rule of thumb is applied because more often than not, the maiden claim winner throws in a clunker if they run a race right after the maiden win. Purely because the maiden claimer is now running against non maidens who are more “seasoned” so to speak and by sticking to this rule of thumb, of never betting maiden claimers right after they win more often than not by consistently making this decision to stick to this rule of thumb, we win. 🙂

I emphasis that passing bets on a maiden claimer right after they win does not necessarily apply to Maiden Special Weight (MSW) winners. By breaking their maiden in the special weight ranks, this signifies class pedigree, which can also be identified by purse size, and these horses can and do repeat and win. MSW is a completely different class level than Maiden Claim.

Finding bets to make is only half the battle. The other half is just as important and that is how to make the bet once you locate it and even this requires a rule of thumb. In the case of a pick 6 wager we like the bet to consider the bet when on 2 tickets we can place the wager for between $250 and $400 depending on the base amount of the bet. When the ticket costs higher, we’ve come to recognize that we’re not confident enough in our wager and it would be placing too much to chance so we pass and wait for a later date.

All said, I’d like to walk everyone through how we got 5 out of 6 again on our second syndicate pick 6 wager and you’ll see just as easily how we will eventually hit one and this will be one of many to come.

First, the main reason for the bet was Race 10, the 9 horse trained by Bill Mott. Had this horse listed as my POD (stands for Play of the Day) because the horse woke up last time out, was favored in her last 3 races and ran at GP which is considered the winters specialty meet plus Mott had a 66% win percentage in today’s TS Stats and a 100% Layoff percentage on 3rd after a layoff in a sprint.

Prior to viewing race 10, race 9 had several horses that jumped off the page however the number 8 horse who is trained by Chad Brown and who was ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr had huge pedigree for a good turf and also had a recent turf work on the same type of good turf surface though there were other horses in this same race that got my attention for similar reasons.

From here I went race by race starting with race 5 which was the first leg of the pick 6 and right away I noticed a horse trained by Chad Brown with the same jockey Irad Ortiz Jr riding that was in race 10 and this 1 horse also possessed pedigree for a good turf. So I realized I now had a potential Either or; same trainer, same jockey, in similar conditions, all with a real chance of winning within this serial race wager. I also noted that should Brown miss either leg that there were quite a few horses in each that had a chance of winning under these same surface conditions so if Brown missed either leg that the winner was open for a possible long shot which is exactly what took place…..

In leg 1 Brown lost race 5 and a long shot, the #10 trained by Steve Asmussen won paying over $30 to win. After this leg I realized that we were anchoring on Browns horse in race 9 and of course the single that we had on both tickets, the 9 horse in race 10.

Fortunately we didn’t get knocked out of the first leg like we did the other day at GP which always feels better than knowing your chances are over right away, and again we only lost one leg and it so happened to once again be to a horse with the number 7 that beat us. Then my mother’s thoughts always come to mind because since I was born she said when things happen in 2s, they always happen in 3s and this is so true that I have witnessed this countless times in this life path so saying so to forewarn everyone that we’ll probably get 5 out of 6 in a pick 6 again and the leg we miss will be the horse #7. However hopefully through this insight mixed with the humor of my Mom, everyone can see why we bet a pick 6 today at Keeneland and the reasoning behind the decisions.

When I looked back on the 7th race to view the horse that won that I did not have on our ticket I can see how this horse did win and not having this horse included was purely an oversight by me and not anything to do with any rule of thumb. As a matter of fact, as things for some reason always come clearer after you lose a race, I can see clearly now that this horse is already a proven winner on a good turf surface that happens to be at the same distance as today’s race.

When our program is to the point of anticipation by the end of this month, missing horses such as this will come into view and we’ll hit more of these than we will not and another thing that has come clear to me and that is I will probably have to make adjustments to our current list of more often than not because when statistics show their strength, I must and will make the necessary adjustments even though human error will sometimes still get the better as long as the better is less often than not 🙂