Posted on by Susan

More Often Than not + Either or

I began writing this before the last leg of the Pick 6 ran at KEE today because I was going to write about the reason I chose to bet a Pick 6 at Keeneland which was because of the last 2 legs; race 9 and particularly race 10 jumped off the page at me. Then when I started to delve I noticed trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr had 2 separate runners that I viewed each had a legitimate chance to win within this multiple pick 6 race wager so I decided it was worth a potential bet.

What is Either Or you may ask? Well it’s a more often than not rule of thumb that I have on my roster. Though I go into some details regarding this play in my book Signers it was published back in 2004 (which BTW you can download for free at the above link), I’ve since learned to take this to another level and discovered a very cost effective way to consistently hit multiple race wagers for an extremely affordable investment amount. In other words You do not have to bet a lot to win a lot. And you can even add in those horse’s that you don’t have because it increases the cost of the ticket yet cause concern due to the cost of all runners on one ticket where betting an Either or you get a single in each leg by betting the either or trainer in two of the legs on two different tickets.

Before I can really explain I must share with you what Ed and I labeled our rule of thumbs and one of these was more often than not rule of thumb. Which encompasses quite a few scenarios on a conscious list that whenever we identify one of these moves, we stick to our rule of thumb. The first one that comes to mind is because it happens daily and that is, Ed and I never bet a horse that just broke its’ Maiden in a Maiden Claiming race unless today’s race is on a different surface (meaning the last race was on the dirt and today’s race is on the turf) and only consider if the horse is bred for today’s conditions, or if the last race was on a fast track and today’s surface is muddy and this horse is bred for the mud, or if the horse had a break (defined as a layoff) of 45 days or longer and the trainer shows capable of winning on this move. This rule of thumb is applied because more often than not, the maiden claim winner throws in a clunker if they run a race right after the maiden win. Purely because the maiden claimer is now running against non maidens who are more “seasoned” so to speak and by sticking to this rule of thumb, of never betting maiden claimers right after they win more often than not by consistently making this decision to stick to this rule of thumb, we win. 🙂

I emphasis that passing bets on a maiden claimer right after they win does not necessarily apply to Maiden Special Weight (MSW) winners. By breaking their maiden in the special weight ranks, this signifies class pedigree, which can also be identified by purse size, and these horses can and do repeat and win. MSW is a completely different class level than Maiden Claim.

Finding bets to make is only half the battle. The other half is just as important and that is how to make the bet once you locate it and even this requires a rule of thumb. In the case of a pick 6 wager we like the bet to consider the bet when on 2 tickets we can place the wager for between $250 and $400 depending on the base amount of the bet. When the ticket costs higher, we’ve come to recognize that we’re not confident enough in our wager and it would be placing too much to chance so we pass and wait for a later date.

All said, I’d like to walk everyone through how we got 5 out of 6 again on our second syndicate pick 6 wager and you’ll see just as easily how we will eventually hit one and this will be one of many to come.

First, the main reason for the bet was Race 10, the 9 horse trained by Bill Mott. Had this horse listed as my POD (stands for Play of the Day) because the horse woke up last time out, was favored in her last 3 races and ran at GP which is considered the winters specialty meet plus Mott had a 66% win percentage in today’s TS Stats and a 100% Layoff percentage on 3rd after a layoff in a sprint.

Prior to viewing race 10, race 9 had several horses that jumped off the page however the number 8 horse who is trained by Chad Brown and who was ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr had huge pedigree for a good turf and also had a recent turf work on the same type of good turf surface though there were other horses in this same race that got my attention for similar reasons.

From here I went race by race starting with race 5 which was the first leg of the pick 6 and right away I noticed a horse trained by Chad Brown with the same jockey Irad Ortiz Jr riding that was in race 10 and this 1 horse also possessed pedigree for a good turf. So I realized I now had a potential Either or; same trainer, same jockey, in similar conditions, all with a real chance of winning within this serial race wager. I also noted that should Brown miss either leg that there were quite a few horses in each that had a chance of winning under these same surface conditions so if Brown missed either leg that the winner was open for a possible long shot which is exactly what took place…..

In leg 1 Brown lost race 5 and a long shot, the #10 trained by Steve Asmussen won paying over $30 to win. After this leg I realized that we were anchoring on Browns horse in race 9 and of course the single that we had on both tickets, the 9 horse in race 10.

Fortunately we didn’t get knocked out of the first leg like we did the other day at GP which always feels better than knowing your chances are over right away, and again we only lost one leg and it so happened to once again be to a horse with the number 7 that beat us. Then my mother’s thoughts always come to mind because since I was born she said when things happen in 2s, they always happen in 3s and this is so true that I have witnessed this countless times in this life path so saying so to forewarn everyone that we’ll probably get 5 out of 6 in a pick 6 again and the leg we miss will be the horse #7. However hopefully through this insight mixed with the humor of my Mom, everyone can see why we bet a pick 6 today at Keeneland and the reasoning behind the decisions.

When I looked back on the 7th race to view the horse that won that I did not have on our ticket I can see how this horse did win and not having this horse included was purely an oversight by me and not anything to do with any rule of thumb. As a matter of fact, as things for some reason always come clearer after you lose a race, I can see clearly now that this horse is already a proven winner on a good turf surface that happens to be at the same distance as today’s race.

When our program is to the point of anticipation by the end of this month, missing horses such as this will come into view and we’ll hit more of these than we will not and another thing that has come clear to me and that is I will probably have to make adjustments to our current list of more often than not because when statistics show their strength, I must and will make the necessary adjustments even though human error will sometimes still get the better as long as the better is less often than not 🙂

Leave a Reply

Non-Disclosure

Non-Disclosure Agreement

This Non-disclosure Agreement (this “Agreement” is effective as of May 08, 2020 the “Effective Date”), by and between Zen Racing Stats LLC (the “Owner”), of 8465 W Sahara Ave Suite 111-515, Las Vegas, Nevada 89117, and all LLC Members (the “Recipient”) where

Zen Racing Stats LLC will be sharing proprietary information with all its members, investors, and silent partners and as long as they own stock in and/or work for Owner in any capacity is prohibited from sharing, giving away, selling, showing or collaborating with to any person and/or entity outside Zen Racing Stats LLC company indefinitely.

The Owner has requested and the Recipient agrees that the Recipient will protect the confidential material and information which may be disclosed between the Owner and the Recipient. Therefore, the parties agree as follows:

I. CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION. The term “Confidential Information” means any information or material which is proprietary to the Owner, whether or not owned or developed by the Owner, which is not generally known other than by the Owner, and which the Recipient may obtain through any direct or indirect contact with the Owner Regardless of whether specifically identified as confidential or proprietary. Confidential Information shall include any information provided by the Owner concerning the business, technology and information of the Owner deals, including, without limitation, business records and plans, trade secrets, technical data, product ideas, contracts, financial information, pricing structure, discounts, computer programs and listings, source code and/or object code, copyrights and intellectual property, inventions, sales leads, strategic alliances, partners, and customer and client lists. The nature of the information and the manner of disclosure are such that a reasonable person would understand it to be confidential.

A. “Confidential Information” does not include:

– matters of public knowledge that result from disclosure by the Owner;

– information rightfully received by the Recipient from a third party without a duty of confidentiality;

– information independently developed by the Recipient;

– information disclosed by operation of law;

– information disclosed by the Recipient with the prior written consent of the Owner;

– information disclosed by the Recipient with the prior written consent of the Owner; and any other information that both parties agree in writing is not confidential

II. PROTECTION OF CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION. The Recipient understands and acknowledges that the Confidential Information has been developed or obtained by the Owner by the investment of significant time, effort and expense, and that the Confidential Information is a valuable, special and unique asset of the Owner which provides the Owner with a significant competitive advantage, and needs to be protected from improper disclosure. In consideration for the receipt by the Recipient of the Confidential Information, the Recipient agrees as follows:

A. No Disclosure. The Recipient will hold the Confidential Information in confidence and will not disclose the Confidential Information to any person or entity without the prior written consent of the Owner.

B. No Copying/Modifying. The Recipient will not copy or modify any Confidential Information without the prior written consent of the Owner.

C. Unauthorized Use. The Recipient shall promptly advise the Owner if the Recipient becomes aware of any possible unauthorized disclosure or use of the Confidential Information.

D. Application to Employees. The Recipient shall not disclose any Confidential Information to any employees of the Recipient, except those employees who are required to have the Confidential Information in order to perform their job duties in connection with the limited purposes of this Agreement. Each permitted employee to whom Confidential Information is disclosed shall sign a non-disclosure agreement substantially the same as this Agreement at the request of the Owner.

III. UNAUTHORIZED DISCLOSURE OF INFORMATION – INJUNCTION. If it appears that the Recipient has disclosed (or has threatened to disclose) Confidential Information in violation of this Agreement, the Owner shall be entitled to an injunction to restrain the Recipient from disclosing the Confidential Information in whole or in part. The Owner shall not be prohibited by this provision from pursuing other remedies, including a claim for losses and damages.

IV. NON-CIRCUMVENTION. For a period of five (5) years after the end of the
term of this Agreement, the Recipient will not attempt to do business with, or otherwise solicit any business contacts found or otherwise referred by Owner to Recipient for the purpose of circumventing, the result of which shall be to prevent the Owner from realizing a profit, fees, or otherwise, without the specific written approval of the Owner. In such circumvention shall occur the Owner shall be entitled to any commissions due pursuant to this Agreement or relating to such transaction.

V. RETURN OF CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION: Upon the written request of the Owner, the Recipient shall return to the Owner all written materials containing the Confidential Information. The Recipient shall also deliver to the Owner written statements signed by the Receipt certifying that all materials have been returned within five (5) days of receipt of the request.

VI. RELATIONSHIP TO PARTIES. Neither party has an obligation under this Agreement to purchase any service or item from other party, or commercially offer any products using or incorporating the Confidential Information. This Agreement does not create any agency, partnership, or joint venture.

VII. NO WARRANTY. The Recipient acknowledges and agrees that the Confidential Information is provided on an “AS IS” basis. THE OWNER MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO THE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE OWNER BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES IN CONNECTION WITH OR ARISING OUT OF THE PERFORMANCE OR USE OF ANY PORTION OF THE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION. The Owner does not represent or warrant that any product or business plans disclosed to the Recipient will be marketed or carried out as disclosed, or at all. Any actions taken by the Recipient in response to the disclosure of the Confidential Information shall be solely at the risk of the Recipient.

VIII. LIMITED LICENSE TO USE. The Recipient shall not acquire any intellectual property rights under this Agreement except the limited right to use as set forth above. The Recipient acknowledges that, as between the Owner and the Recipient, the Confidential Information and all related copyrights and other intellectual property rights, are (and at times will be) the property of the Owner, even if suggestions, comments, and/or ideas made by the Recipient are incorporated into the Confidential Information or related materials during the period of the Agreement.

IX. INDEMNITY. Each party agrees to defend, indemnify, and hold harmless the other party and its officers, directors, agents, affiliates, distributors, representatives, and employees from any and all third party claims, demands, liabilities, costs and expense, including reasonable attorney’s fees, cost and expenses resulting from the indemnifying party’s material breach of any duty. representation, or warranty under this Agreement.

X. ATTORNEY’S FEES. In any legal action between the parties concerning this Agreement, the prevailing party shall be entitled to recover reasonable attorney’s fees and costs.

XI. TERM. The obligations of this Agreement shall survive Indefinitely from the Effective Date or until the Owner sends the Recipient written notice releasing the Recipient from this Agreement. After that, the Recipient must continue to protect the Confidential Information that was received during the term of this Agreement from unauthorized use or disclosure indefinitely.

XII. GENERAL PROVISIONS. This Agreement sets forth the entire understanding of the parties regarding confidentiality. Any amendments must be in writing and signed by both parties. This Agreement shall be construed under the laws of the State of Nevada. This Agreement shall not be assignable by either party. Neither party may delegate its duties under this Agreement without the prior written consent of the other party. The confidentiality provisions of this Agreement shall remain in full force and effect at all times in accordance with the term of this Agreement. If any provision of this Agreement is held to be invalid, illegal or unenforceable, the remaining portions of this Agreement shall remain in full force and effect and construed so as to best effectuate the original intent and purpose of this Agreement.

XIII. WHISTLEBLOWER PROTECTION. This Agreement is in compliance with the Defend Trade Secrets Act and provides civil or criminal immunity to any individual for the disclosure of trade secrets; (1) made in confidence to a federal, state, or local government official, or to an attorney when the disclosure is to report suspected violations of the law; or (11) in a complaint or other document filed in a lawsuit if made under seal.

XIV. SIGNATORIES. This Agreement shall be executed by Susan L. Sweeney Bain, Owner, on behalf of Zen Racing Stats LLC and Recipient and delivered in the manner prescribed by law as of the date first written above.