This happens to be one of my favorite times of the year to look for bets and most likely not for the same reason everyone else loves this season because my focus is not particularly on the 3 year olds leading up to the Derby. My focus is on the horse’s that have returned home after running at the two winter specialty meets; Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds.
Most people are not aware as we weren’t until we tracked Jockey-Trainer stats that Gulfstream has two, very separate, very different meets. They have their specialty winter meet that actually begins some time in November when all the trainers from the East, the Mid-West and the West coast ship down and these trainers only ship their best runners to compete with the other best runners in our United States. These winter meets close when Keeneland opens because this is where all the trainer’s that are fortunate to have young horses making their mark in history go to compete and then the remainder return to their home base tracks.
Then why should this matter and open up betting opportunities at all the tracks these horses return to? Well it’s wonderfully simple because the trainers that ship their horses to these specialty meets, only ship their best because they are competing against the best for purses that are worth shipping their best runners for. So when they return to their home tracks these horses are back competing with the horse’s that did not ship to these specialty meets which gives these runners a huge, huge edge when they are back home, no matter their odds.
So what’s the best way to bet these horses when they return to their home track?
The way I bet these is when I have a stat in a race or if I am looking to make a serial race wager, I either add the horses that ran at these specialty tracks to my wager with the stat horse or if I’m faced with making a decision whether to choose one stat over another and then I noticed that one of these ran at either GP or FG, I usually choose that horse over the one that did not ship and as mentioned yesterday about the more often than not, this is the correct choice to make.
More often than not still means that the horse you did not select can win and the choice you made in the race will be beaten, however staying with the consistency of any move such as this, more often than not you will win and I’ve hit these with amazing mutual results.
The best way to show how I came to understand this powerful move is to share about the first hit I had betting these horses from GP and FG because it was a hit for 7K that was shared with friends we were meeting at the GP racetrack after the specialty meet closed.
This was years ago, when we lived in Florida and the Pick-4 had a $1 base wager at Woodbine racetrack. Anyone who is serious about racing knows that you try not to go to the track with friends who don’t regularly attend, however Ed’s reputation was unavoidable so we’d make exceptions once in a great while because they were friends and they agreed to front all the money for the bets.
They expected Ed or actually mostly me to decide the plays we make because I was the one who bet exotics while Ed remained focused on wins. Since nothing jumped off the page at us at GP that day, we bet mostly on simulcasting and on this day I had a pick 4 wager figured at Woodbine and in the middle of this serial wager, leg 3 to be exact, I singled a horse that ran at GP during their winter meet. This horse won and paid $76 for win. Fortunately we had All in the last leg so everyone knew we hit but none of us had any idea of what it would pay. Since Ed and I enjoyed sitting outside as we always did when we went to live racing, we really had no interest going inside on such a beautiful day.
But, our friends who held the tickets for every wager we’d make knew we were sitting on a Signer and understandably couldn’t contain their enthusiasm so they decided to stand the full 30 minutes in front of a Woodbine screen to see first hand who won the last leg. They couldn’t get back to our picnic table fast enough to let us know a 17/1 shot just hit.
Needless to say Ed and I went inside with everyone to cash and were especially happy to discover that even though the hit was for over $7K the track did not take out any taxes because they said Woodbine was in Canada so we did not have to pay. Wasn’t aware of that at the time but there were 7 happy people, including us when we cashed and each received over $1,000 bucks. Then when we got home I looked again at the bet and it was then that I noticed the horse that won the last leg, the horse that was 17/1 ran at FGs winter meet 🙂
Nothing like a big pay day to remember what made it happen and right now there are betting opportunities like these all over the place.