Posted on by Susan

Lightning Strikes Twice – Version 2 Does it Again!

I have incredible news….

Just yesterday I shared with you that we began tracking All the programs top selections, in addition to the Potential Bet Standouts that the program identifies in order to monitor how Version 2 is performing when this amazing result happened again. We actually produced a flat bet profit if we bet the programs top selection in every single race on July 3rd and July 4th!

Yesterday there were 159 races with 10 races not offering a payout for show; 56 won for a 35% win rate, 29 placed for and 18.23% place rate, and 22 showed for a 13.84% show rate and an overall in the money hit rate of 67.29%. Bet $2 across on all 159 (minus the 10 no show payout) we would have invested $934 and received a payout of $957 for an overall profit of $23 had we bet the programs top selection in every single race! This is nothing short of amazing! To download the PDF with the full results for the last two days click here

A note about yesterday’s Potential Bet Standout list that differed from 7/3s Potential Standouts is 7/4s produced a slight loss. There were 52 potential bet standouts with 2 races not offering a payout for show. Had we bet $2 across we would have invested $308 and received back $305.90 for a loss of $2.10. 22 won for a 42% win rate, 10 placed for a 19.2% place rate and 8 showed for a 15.4% show rate and an overall in the money hit rate of 76.9%.

It’s important to note that the Potential Bet Standout list does change, sometimes several times during the day of the races. This is due to variables such as scratches, jockey switches, track conditions excreta so our developers included a feature for me to be able to update the report throughout race day. I make note of this because access to these changes is imperative to making our investment decisions.

There will be races that are no longer on the list and ones that were added. This is due to the ratings because in order to make the potential bet standout list there has to be at least a 10 point higher spread in a rating in the order of runners from the next runners rating. In other words if the programs first selection has a rating of a 90 and the next runner has an 80, then the 90 rated horse makes the list. So if there are scratches or jockey switches these changes can impact the ratings. Say a horse that made this list has a rating of 90 and this runner is scratched and leaves the highest rated horse an 80 and then the next best runner is the same race is 70 or less, then the 80 rated horse would replace the scratched 90 high rated horse on the standout list. However if the 80 rated horse remained and the next best rating was 71, then no runner from that race would replace the scratched runner because of a 9 point difference, not 10.

In addition, there are tracks that I initially would Not bet so we do not include these in the day list that my assistants prepare for me yet we still monitor their results. As an example HST, ASD, Canadian tracks or LA Los Alamitos (not LRC which is all T-breds) so any track that runs a mixture of quarter horse races on the same card as some T-breds.
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Because I received a note from one of the shareholders that he did not receive yesterday’s email about reaching this milestone, I’m including that message below. Don’t want one person missing out on our progress.

Been tracking the Standout Potential Bet results of Version 2, a total of 15 days, and so far we have had only 3 days where we lost money if we bet all, one day we broke even (made .10 cents) though on this day the standouts were in the money 85%, with the remaining 11 days profitable that all combined summed positive and we have maintained an on average 72.5% in the money! 

This is an amazing accomplishment and just when you think the news couldn’t get any better, yesterday I decided to track all the program’s top selections for all races at all race tracks running in our database, meaning not just the “Standout Potential Bets” but each full race cards top picks and there were 153 races with 12 not offering a payout for show which if we bet $2 across the board on each, 49 won for a 32% win rate, 26 placed for a 16.9% place rate and 22 showed for a 14.3% show rate and an overall in the money hit rate of 63.33% we would have invested $894 and got back $953.70 for a total profit of $59.70 if we bet every single race’s top pick!  This is almost unbelievable and a most welcome surprise. 

The Standouts which were also profitable with 53 races at $2 across on each, 21 won for a 40% win rate, 15 placed for a 28.8% place rate and 2 showed for a 3.8% show rate and an overall in the money hit rate of 71.6%, we would have invested $318 and got back $371 for a total profit of $53.00 which shows us how great our program is already at pulling out the best potential wagers because the profit for the 53 races the program selected as the Standouts almost alone produced the full profit for the day.  $59.70 overall for 153 races, and $53.00 profit for 53 races which betting all 153 only produced $6.70 difference.  Though that doesn’t include any cash return on the investment where had we bet all 153 we would have averaged another 5% or around another $44.70 for a total overall profit of $104.40 by betting $2 across the board on all 153!

To put this in perspective, say we bet $20 across instead of $2, our overall profit would be $1,044, or $200, our overall profit for the day would be $10,440 so you can see what’s in store.

I realize this is one day and until we have more overall days tracked (which today began the first of tracking all), we’ll be able to gauge if this is on going and also the best approach however after reviewing this I couldn’t wait to share this great news!

Non-Disclosure

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