What We Have – What We’ll Bet – Plans for Zen
Susan writes: Hello Everyone
This message brings Good News.
I wake each morning enthusiastic. I genuinely hope that today is the day that I finally will have all this ready to show you so you too can see how far we’ve come. How we have reached the place where we can use our betting program to make money when my physical limitations prevent me from working the hours that I have in the past and I face another day coming to a close without this quite being finished. Yet today if you’re reading this, then I must have been able to finish and to this I say Yaaay!!! This is why it has taken me almost 2 months to ready yet we haven’t really missed out too much because over the same time we’ve been experiencing intermittent interruptions due to necessary fixes that usually have to made during development and a lot of data points have been added to Version 3 so this is expected.
We’ve accomplished a lot. There is more for us to do yet given my plight I’ve come to accept that even though I physically won’t be the one that gets us across the finish line that we have the most important part to our venture in place; the foundation of Ed’s 4-race form cycle stats along with Benter’s algorithms is set and these are the integral calculators that will ensure our success. Where we go from here is completely up to You, which should include each contributing as a whole and not left to just the ones who have kept us in tact.
Since my diagnosis, almost a year ago, I have been on a mission to make sure Zen Racing Stats LLC continues moving on a forward path. I’ve surprised myself (and my doctors) by lasting as long as I have and know this is in large part due to the good energy you send and by my pulling down for more in hopes things will continue after I’m gone. I’ve come to terms with my current physical state and understand I’m not able to pull down for any more, and because of this realize this will be the last opportunity I’ll have to share about how far we’ve come. I’ll leave our moving forward up to you.
Version 3 is here, in hand and ready to use not without error because we remain in the stage of development. Thanks to the developers who gifted us countless hours and for the shareholders who funded the purchase of the extensive data. Without each of you coming together this would not have been possible. From all of us, including Ed, Thank You!
What does this mean?
We’re about 40 to 45% there. Meaning we have many more things to add that will get us to the point where we can confidently bet all the programs top selections. This does not mean that we can not currently use what we have nor what we have isn’t great. It simply means additional analyzing is required.
Below are links to 10 reports, all but the two most recent which contain data through 11/13 have the same info through 10/25, just separated in various ways that we do in house in order to decipherer what we should bet.
This analysis displays our findings regarding exactas and win-place-show.
Several things to note in V3 verses V2 with first being there is absolutely No Difference in the WPS percentage hits and payouts from the Standouts Vs All which makes sense since the algorithms should apply to all thereby produce the same results for all.
Version 3s overall in the money hit rate is down to an on average 58% from an overall on average 70+ percent in Version 2 yet the mutuels are far higher now and prove profit when eliminating low odds. Prior the 70% included a good portion of the payouts below 2/1. The current mutuel averages over 3/1 and includes a percentage of double digit WPS payouts as well as several triple.
Analyzing the programs top selection results is and will remain the key, the cornerstone to our success. And at present (until we’re in a position to hire a hands on developer who can make adjustments for us on a regular basis as needed) we’re currently limited to exporting WPS results to spreadsheets so to track any additional payouts at present requires manual entry. Yet a necessary step we should take towards our evolution because it’s through these percentages that we become aware of which ones we should bet. And equally as important which ones we should not.
As an example we know that even though below a 5/2 Morning Line is in the exacta (win/place) over 65% of the time that betting these are not profitable so we should pass betting exactas below 5/2. Yet through the same analyzing we know that a Morning Line of 5/2 to 3/1 exactas hit 52.69% and are profitable to bet even when the odds fall below their Morning Line in field sizes of at least 8 and that this odds level often shows (comes in 3rd) when not first or second so in addition to betting exactas we should bet equal amount to show. Furthermore we know that a Morning Line over 3/1 exactas hit at a 33.5% hit rate yet is profitable to bet and also comes in 3rd often enough when not in the exacta and should warrant an equal amount to bet to show.
Since 11/13/23 (adding in the races since 10/25 where the above reports end) there were 15,326 races of which 6,679 races the programs top selection for each race win-placed (exacta requirement). 100 did not offer an exacta payout (or we missed recording the payout) for a total of 6,579 exactas that paid. Of these
3,312 exactas paid $25 and below,
1,712 paid between $25 and $49,
988 between $50 and $99,
399 paid between $100 and $199,
85 paid between $200 and $299,
37 paid between $300 and $399,
16 paid between $400 and $499,
9 paid between $500 and $599,
5 paid over $600,
4 paid over $700,
3 paid over $800.
2 paid over $900,
4 paid between $1,000 and $1,499,
2 paid between $1,500 and $1,999
and
1 paid over $2,000.
By separating odds to payout we have deciphered a profitable way for us to use the program in it’s current state to bet exactas. We’ll be eliminating specific races for specific reasons, having a set of rules in place which passes a lot of hits, but the bulk of what we’re passing are low payouts. Here’s the particulars.
When to Pass:
Pass all races with a morning line below 5/2
Pass all races where our key horse is bet down to final odds of 2.1 which equals a payout of $6.20. Our records indicate 2.1 final odds include the majority of the exacta payouts from $75 and up.
Pass exacta bets on 7 horse fields or lower and instead:
Bet WP if final odds over 2.1 and WPS if final odds over 3.5
Pass 8 horse fields when our top selection is bet down to 2.2 and another runner in the race is bet down to similar
When and What to Bet:
When runner makes it through the above reasons to pass
Bet Exacta Key Box the programs top selection with the field.
Also
Bet equal amount on our key runner to Show only when is going in the gate at odds of 3/1 or higher.
Now nothing is exact. We will be passing races that have decent hits just as we’ll be hitting some races where the payout is less than the investment because the odds dropped below the requirement and we missed the chance to cancel the bet. What analyzing the results does for us is we understand that more often than not betting this precise way proves profit and profit overall is what we’re after which means accepting not always having the nice payout or the payout is a loss is part of this too.
Using just the first two reasons for races we plan to pass and the 15,166 races that offered an exacta payout, we’d subtract 3,073 races that had a morning line below 5/2 and another 3,155 races where our key selection had final odds of 2.1 and lower leaves 8,938 races that we could consider a bet, however we narrow this down even more by excluding things as field size, whether we consider the favorite vulnerable or not and other factors such as multiple positive stats in a race is best to pass or for any reason Jon who will be making our bets thinks he should.
We remain a work in progress until we reach completion. Which means there are times when we’ll be down. There are two segments to our development and even though we have one in place, we lack the other and have now reached the point where we are in great need of the other and here’s why.
The way this is supposed to work is we build so much (meaning developers get everything set, add the foundation, semi-set the display and control panel meaning we’re set to export results including XYZ columns, not all) and we work with this through analyzing and making bets. What’s missing is someone to work along side of us as we analyze and bet. This person could not only fix the quirks (bugs) that happen during development, they could also adjust according to our needs, try things like grouping certain distances together rather than having them precise to 6 fur, 6.5 and so on to see if this works better and also add things to the results columns that we export like the payouts for exactas along with WPS which would save us the manual time of entering this data and the months of catch up in order to analyze and know which ones to bet. In other words, we have the developers on one end and now are in need of a developer on the other end who works along side as we progress. Then once we have betting strategies down and we’re making money from our bets and the program is stabilized, we pull the other team of developers back in and have them add more algorithms. Next on the list is pedigree and this not only includes how they perform at certain ages at certain distances and on certain surfaces, and gender it also sizes these up with one another when running in races with various factors like different ages (3 yrs to 7 yrs) and so on but in order for this to work and for us to know what to bet along the way, which will change as our top selection hit rate improves which would open up serial race wagers, it’s important to proceed in increments. Not unlike a recipe that you want to enhance. You may think you should add several spices but how would you know which one would be right or if all would be if you added all at once so by doing so in increments of one at a time you can gauge and this is the same. There are millions and millions of variables, all intertwined yet all in their own way having an impact to the outcome so the only way we can gauge our best direction is by doing so in increments.
We’re in good position because we can now use what we’ve built to make money that will finally put us (Zen) in a place of self sufficiency because we’ll be able to cover our $2,600+ a month operating costs through bets, build our betting bank and be in a position to pay monthly dividends and here’s how:
Assuming we starting with a betting pool of around 20K of which so far we’ve received 3K, Jon will bet the exactas as explained above and at the end of each month split 50/50 meaning, all profit over the 20K left in the betting bank is split with 50% to Zen (which will be used to cover operating costs, pay back previous money borrowed with promised interest and keep money back so Zen can hire the hands on developer) and the other 50% paid in dividends split to all shareholders by shares owned. To explain, say the first month we profit $20K (over the 20K left in our bank), 10K would go to Zen and the other 10K is split among the shareholders according to shares so if you own 2 shares (in either equistats or Zen) your share of profit would be 2% or $200 for that month. This would increase as we increase the amount wagered.
A 20K betting pool would ensure we bet all the races that fit into this criteria, would supply a large enough monthly profit to cover operating costs, allow us to begin to pay back several loans with interest to shareholders who did not convert their loan to a share last year when we did not get the anticipated influx of venture capital, allow us to set back so much each month to hire the hands on developer and pay our shareholders dividends.
Since betting with what we built is as crucial to our success as raising the money we did to build it, we’re asking all shareholders to participate towards our pool if for no other reason that it’s important to all of us that you do so, and have to say especially so to me.
Each investment made towards our bank will add to a portion of a share in the company thereby adding to what you’ll receive when paying dividends. In other words an investment of $1,000 towards our pool, would be worth 1/7th of a share so using the above example of 2% worth $200 for that month, the $1,000 would add $14.28 to that months dividends. And to the shareholders who already committed to another full share that have been paying in increments, want you to know that anything you invest towards our pool will be applied towards the share we’ve been keeping back for you.
In closing….
You can probably tell from the time it’s taken for me to write this that I have reached the point of no longer being able to pull down for more. It’s not because I don’t want to. My heart and soul are here yet my physical is saying no more and yearns to step away. Now with the release of Version 3 I can. We’re finally on our way. Very soon we’ll all be making money so I can and will be able to do so in peace.
Your sharing in this amazing venture with us has meant everything to Ed and me. You are the reason we’ve made it this far. You are the Let em roll at the quarter pole! The road we traveled came with a lot of twists, turns and hurdles to overcome and because this is life we will probably experience more But the good news is What we’ve accomplished has set us, our loved ones and our future loved ones up for a nice return on our investment for the rest of our lives and then some 🙂
I Love You. Will always be with you in spirit.
“It hasn’t been easy, Yet nothing worth doing ever is.”
I ask you to please Invest Here
