Posted on by Susan

Deciphering Our Bets

Before I get going… want you to know that I have food poisoning and unfortunately it put me through quite a lot. I’m now just able to work, though am still a bit weak. This happened Sunday yet the excitement of what we have and the wonderful discoveries we’ve made as to how to make our bets is literally what keeps me going.

We’ve come to a similar place Ed found himself in when he began to bet the trainer stats he manually tracked. He understood the value of this information, that a 30% win rate was something he could capitalize on, yet just as important was this meant a 70% loss rate. Its this understanding of statistics that was the key to Ed’s success and why he was able to sustain a profit for more than 30 years. And the great news is, I know first hand how he accomplished this!

Technology has provided us several advantages that were not afforded Ed in the 90s with the first having the capability to daily update all data where we can then export fields that lets us monitor our modules performance which is how we know that since Version 2 the Standouts are winning on average between 30 to 40%, placing 20 to 29% and hitting show on average 11.5% with a consistent in the money hit rate of 72.5%.

From this information it is reasonable to assume that if we flat bet X amount across on all Standouts that we’d begin to make money right away. However, this is not the case. There are many reasons, quite a lot of low payouts. Winners, in the $2.60 to $2.80 range and $2.10 to $2.20 for place and show. And come race day the list of Standouts changes, sometimes several times throughout the day due to scratches, surface conditions and jockey switches which while betting requires my monitoring as well as keeping up with throughout the day.

We have 15K to work with. This is our base. What we’re going to build our bank on. Understand we could go through 15K fast if we plunge before we go through analysis and perceive the best place to invest. So to begin, we essentially have to test bet all scenarios to find what works more often than not and it’s through this that we will establish a routine, a set of rules that percentage wise works more in our favor than not, meaning that these rules win more than they lose and in order to accomplish this, we’re betting small, analyze the results, continue betting what we discover profitable, and more important stop when we’ve tried something and it is not. This is why I bet some days, then stop. We go inside the numbers, adjust to what works, set aside what doesn’t, and go again. Over several weeks we’ve bet all, meaning every single Standout across the board, betting all show since 72.5% on average are in the money, betting place and show, betting smaller amounts in win, more in place, and even more in show and what we’ve found is not unexpected and that is all decisions made boil down to odds and where is their value. Amazingly we’ve discovered ways of getting value from 3/5.

We’re not far, meaning within the next week I see us having at least one consistent money making routine down that will let us open up the amounts we’re betting and we’ll expand from there. In other words I see us rolling steady by Sunday next week. We’ll stay course and continue to analyze which will add to what we bet and in turn continue to add to our bottom line and so on.

The following is a list of reports that I’d like you to view and/or download when you get the chance with an explanation below each. My goal is to relay an understanding of what this analyzing entails and how we’re deciphering what to bet.

This first group is what we recently bet:

Zen Bets 9/23/22, Zen Bets 9/24/22, 9/27/22, 9/28/22 Sorted by Track and Bet Type, 9/28/22, and 9/29/22.

All the above reports were test bets. We bet every single Standout in w/p/s, every daily double and exacta using all to see if this could be flat bet which can not. In addition we bet exotic wagers when we saw something however you can see from these results that this at this point burns too much through what we have to work with yet necessary to try to see.

Next is today’s reports. Since I’ve been working on this post all day at it’s now 8:32 PM Pacific time, and I uploaded these hours ago when about half the races hadn’t yet run, this will give you an idea of what a day is like. In addition I made bets that I was going to include but I ran out of gas so will upload tomorrow. We had a fairly break even day.

9/30/22 Standouts 1, 9/30/22 Standouts 2,

The following is a sorted list of the Standouts. This Shows what tracks to bet and just as important what tracks to avoid and then there are several tracks that are definitely betable however requires discretion.
Standouts sorted by track 6/20/22 to 9/27/22

Re this list, The following track we are to completely avoid: All small tracks that show both quarter horse and T-Breds, all Canadian tracks except for Woodbine including avoiding Fort Erie and the following US Tracks; CT, EVD, PID, EVD.

Then the following is my Guide meaning what to bet Win, Place, or Win, Place and Show according to odds. Right now more generalized that when we have future versions with additional algorithms that increase the win percentage and I’ve found following this guide has saved us money meaning there are times to bet just win, place and not include show and other times where we not only include all three but only bet show.

Morning Line- Odds Table

In closing I need to share some things personal. I do deal with quite a few health issues and almost daily push through no matter but have to be honest in the fact that this really catches up to me. Some days I literally can not get out of bed. Usually this occurs on Monday and some times runs over to Tues after an intense weekend. The reason I share this is cause I want everyone to know that I am doing everything humanly possible to move us forward and my plans are once we have an established routine that we can have my backup bettors take over on days when I am dealing with such. So my goals always have long term thoughts in mind. No need to be concerned. I’m sharing this only because this is what I face yet I have our venture and it’s continuance in the forefront always on my mind.

And I have a request. Because my person can not rattle off a quick reply to anyone who has questions, and I take to heart every persons concerns I ask that you give me this time, whatever it takes, a few weeks or a month to get this right, to get us going without having to personally address anyone’s thoughts. Please know that this request is not because I do not wish to answer or address anyone. It’s purely because I am one person, who unfortunately has to deal with health issues regularly and has to wear quite a few hats while keeping us going that in order to be all I can for everyone I really need to be doing just this, deciphering, analyzing, and betting so we can roll.

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