Last Saturday, September 8th I had a play at Gulfstream in their 7th race. The # 3 Lady Magica trained by Gilberto Zerpa had a Debut 2 Sprint stat of 14-5-35% in Maiden Special Weights. Lady Magica’s Morning Line was 7/2 which made her the second favorite in the field. The favorite was 3/1.
A 7/2 Morning Line is generally safe from getting over bet by the crowd. I normally expect morning line odds of 7/2 to go off at 5/2 or 3/1 with no clear cut favorite or could possibly move up to 4/1. The crowd bet Zerpa’s horse down to the 4/5 favorite. I was surprised that the crowd piled on and bet his horse down eleven odds levels to 4/5.
Who bet Lady Magica so low that a safe bet in the morning line turned into a pass at post? Because by my statistics Zerpa’s horse was over bet, the players who bet on him did not believe his horse was not over bet because when you bet the horse that wins it is an overlay no matter what the payout is.
Big players affect the payouts by the volume of tickets purchased on this horse. They will take low odds produced by betting big on a horse that they have a large advantage on.
So was it the crowd, a big player or a betting syndicate that bet Lady Magica to 4/5? I do not know. The horse could have been in one of the races that the grandstand players noticed and then bets and piles on. When this happens the entire grandstand is very happy to bet with the smart money.
Maybe it was a big player who bet the odds so low. Possibly the owner of this horse GV 21 Entertainment. I do not know if they bet however if you own a stable of race horses and you win 50% of your entries with trainer Gilberto Zerpa with a stat of 24-12-50% you should bet. Maybe the eleven level odds swing was made by them and the trainer Zerpa. I think that is a more reasonable assumption than the crowd.
Because I am a trainer player I lean towards the connections. Say they were the ones who bet Lady Magica to 4/5. As a bettor I would bet that a syndicate may have been in that race and they could have banged the odds. I see the pools could give me an idea who bet the horse down to 4/5, particularly the double and exacta pools. I rounded all the pools and payouts up and down.
4/5 pays $3.80 and has a 55% strike rate. You have to win 55 from every 100 bets at 4/5 to break even. 7/2 pays $9 and has a strike rate of 22%. This equates to 22 wins from every 100 bets. What does this mean to the pools in race 7 at Gulfstream when I thought the odds would drop only two levels and instead dropped eleven?
I do not think this was a bad assigned morning line. Lady Magica was the second favorite at 7/2. Perhaps the morning line odds line was a little high at 7/2 though this was a Maiden Special Weight race. The morning line favorite placed and the second favorite won. The odds maker tries to hit the winner with one of his top three selections and Lady Magica won so the line was not bad.
The win, place and show pools in that race totaled $185,000. At 4/5 $3.80 is paid out to the winners. If a syndicate was in the pools at 25% $46,000 went to them. If the stable and trainer bet they could have been in the pools and bet big into them.
As a former win bettor the place and show pools are unattractive. These paid $2.40 and $2.20. I would bet $20,000 to win on a 4/5 shot and this would pay $38,000. That is the same as hitting a $2 win ticket 10,000 times. It would cost $20,000 to hit for $38,000. Bet big win big.
The exacta pool was $159,000. The $1.00 exacta paid $3.50 and the same odds 4/5 in the pool went to the players who had bet that horse. If the syndicate were 25% of that pool that is just below $40,000. It would take 11,500 $1.00 win tickets to cash for around $40,000.
The double pool for race 6 and 7 was $19,000. The double for a $1.00 bet paid $3.40. 25% of the pool was about $5,000. The cost is $1,500 to cash for $5,000. If they used two horses for the double it would cost $3,000 to make $5,000.
The double for race 7 and race 8 for a $1.00 double paid $7.80. $20,000 was in the pool, 25% is $5,000. The cost for 650 tickets to win is $5,000. If two horses were used for the double the cost is $1,300 to cash for $5,000.
55% won 100% of the pools. It could be just the crowd or the connections or a syndicate or a combination. At 4/5 there is not much room to spread the bet to hit in the exacta or double. I would think a win bettor could have that effect on the odds however, the odds in the double were also low paying so they went after the double. An even money favorite won the front half of this 4/5 shot in race 7 and the second favorite was 3/1 in the second double. A small spread of two fillers; the favorite and the second favorite in these two double bets would have hit each of them. To me this is the crowd betting favorites though that is a good betting strategy.
The payouts are so low it makes me think that a syndicate could have made the bets. A syndicate determines what they can except as odds. 55% makes me think that maybe they had a bigger percentage of odds on this horse. The next odds level would represent 63% of the pool. On the tote board it would be 3/5 and an overlay at 4/5. 63% versus 55%. The odds represent a percentage of the betting pools
Syndicates bet computer to computer. They bet so big they effect pools and wreck odds but this is not this way to them they are betting overlays. They have a very serious advantage. They know when to bet through algorithms and also how much money to risk with their betting models is built in. Syndicates can have ten’s of thousands into one bet.
I can not tell the difference if it’s the crowd betting these odds or a syndicate. I think the crowd is vulnerable and the syndicate is not. I passed the bet because of the odds and I had a 50% stat. The actual odds were 55% and the syndicate may have had 63% for theirs. I believe syndicates hammer the favorites because they have true odds. Their odds are more accurate and this is the reason I passed.
Here are 3 favorites.
Belmont Race 2 # 10 Pakhet 5/2 Todd Pletcher Debut 2 Route stat of 192-59-29% From these Pletcher sent 65 Debut 2 Route favorites to post, 31 won for a 47% win rate. John Velazquez is Pletcher’s go to jockey and has 1,031 races and 263 wins a 25% win rate. Pass at even money.
Results: Pakhet won, dropped one odds level as a 2/1 favorite, paid $6. The fifth favorite came in the exacta at 17/1. $2 Exacta paid $91.50
Gulfstream Race 4 # 7 Trunk of Money Todd Pletcher 9/5 Debut 1 Sprint 336-94-27% Of these at Gulfstream 58 were favorites and 29 won for a 50% win rate. He is the second favorite. He has to be the favorite to bet. Pletcher has Paco Lopez as the jockey they are 38-15-39%. I will pass at 6/5.
Results: Trunk of Money went off at 2/1 and ran out.
Woodbine Race 9 # 3 Inflexability 2/1 a Chad Brown Lay 3 Route 148-39-26% his Lay 3 Route favorites are 55-24-43% Jose Ortiz is his go to jockey they are 265-78-29% in Stakes races these two are 81-24-29%. Pass at 7/5
Results: Inflexability went off at even money. He was a pass at 7/5 so I passed.
Results: Went 1 for 2
Ed Bain author of new exciting horse racing Novel
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