The More Often Than Not Approach

Insight to Ed’s Brain

When Ed completed 2 years worth of stats for Layoffs and Claims he began to see enough data with a reasonable number of tries that identified potential bets.

Anyone who has had a conversation with Ed had to recognize his confidence and because of this often thought that Ed precisely knew how to bet out of the gate. Almost as if he were born with an innate understanding of how to invest and win on horseracing, however, that couldn’t be farther from the truth. His confidence came from recording statistics, and then letting the recording of these statistics guide him.

Personally I believe the secret to his success was it never mattered to him how much work was involved to find out how to win. If something lead him in a different direction even after spending a year or two recording information a certain way, he’d start over.

Ed Manually Tracking 138 trainer moves. Stopping just long enough for a picture.

He began by tracking 138 different trainer moves! He did all this manually, with a pencil and a pad. This was before we had a computer so for his birthday one year I bought him a pack of erasers. Of course as a joke but it was my way of trying to get him to accept the idea that it would be good to transition to a P C.

This was the beginning of our working together as a team that also defined our roles. Since neither of us were schooled in computers I willingly learned how to prepare spreadsheets and we went from there. Essentially we were still manually entering the data yet having this information in a spreadsheet and being able to decipher is what made Ed Bain happen.

While recording these 138 trainer moves Ed noticed Layoffs and Claims were dominant so this is when he made the first decision to start over. Initially he combined all distances, meaning he did not separate by sprint and route and to give you a real look inside Ed’s mind he once again made the decision to start completely over even after compiling 2 years worth of Layoffs and Claims because he realized distance matters. It’s this willingness to adjust, to change, to start over, that gives him his edge. It’s the reason he was able to figure out how to consistently win.

The manual recording had it’s advantages too because whether Ed realized this or not during the process he was subconsciously making note of things that surfaced at the most opportune times, when he was deciding which ones to bet. And I’m happy to say the same holds true for me because I am the one who pulls together the results so I can monitor how the Standouts are doing. I actually manually write down the results throughout the day, something I’ve done since day one because this gives me a hands on mental subconscious note of how they’re performing which also gives me direction.

It took about 3 years from the time Ed surfaced with his Layoff and Claims data to establishing a sound way to bet. All the while recording his bets and tracking his results.

We had spreadsheets for everything; just 4 + 30s (that we used to publish in monthly newsletter), then separate ones that contained all Layoffs and Claims stats, then spreadsheets for his bets and these grew as he moved along.

He was not an out of the gate win bettor nor did he strictly bet 4 + 30s which meant a trainer had 4 wins or more plus a 30% win rate or higher on this Layoff or Claim trainer move and he bet small during this process of growth.

It was during this analysis that he came to understand a 30% win rate also equates to a 70% loss rate and that in order to be profitable it was necessary to eliminate races which is how he came up with what he used to refer to as filters.

As an example he began with using the horse’s race record to eliminate. If the horse had zero wins for 4 at this track and/or distance, he’d pass. Then he noticed often if a horse won their last race that unless they won in an Allowance grade or better that the runner rarely repeat. So this was added to his list of filters. Another filter came about when one or more of his 4 + 30 stats showed up in the same race because whenever he selected one over the other, the other always won. Always 🙂

Thus began “the more often than not” rule. What this essentially means is that no matter what routine you establish, there are always going to be times when what you threw out or went against beats you. It’s part of being a horse player. No one wins every race though I do think we’re on track to eventually win 60% or more. So in order to know what to do, you track results and you see where the profit is and then you bet accordingly.

I’ll give a personal example of one of my more often than not rules. Whenever I make a serial race wager, usually one that includes 4 or more races, I make a bet I refer to as the either or.

What this means is I look for a trainer that happens to have 2 entries within my serial race wager (though not in the same race) and this trainer has to have a fairly high overall hit rate. Let’s say 20%. More than likely I am in this serial race wager because there is one race within the sequence that has a Stand out for me. It could be for any reason but there is one particular horse I really like that I want to stand alone with. So from here I scope the surrounding races to see what high profile trainer might have multiple entries within the wager I want to make and often times I find several which is great because I actually look at each of their runners and sometimes there is a good reason not to like one or the other so I decide not to use that trainer. Long story shorter once I decide who to use, I single them in each race on two separate tickets with my single that lead me to this race in the first place and then do all and all in the legs where I don’t have a stat.

To define, lets say we have a Pick 4 and in leg 1 I really like the 2 horse and trainer Brad Cox has two entries, one in leg 2 which we’ll label the 1 horse and one in leg 4 which we’ll label the 4 horse. My two tickets would look like this:

2/1/ALL/ALL and 2/ALL/ALL/4

So if my single hits and Brad Cox wins either of these two legs I win more often than not by betting this way. Sounds simple but it took quite a few tries for me to establish this bet because I didn’t always use All in the middle and learned the hard way to do so. However sometimes in the All slot the favorite hits even though I perceived that race wide open and thus the pick 4 wager payout isn’t big. But, More Often Than Not, it is. It pays great. And the other deciding factor before even deciding this bet is the fact that my single has decent odds and I perceive the serial race wager wide open and worth the bet OR I pass.

The reason I share all this is because I have figured out one way so far for us to consistently win. And I am applying this each day I bet so we can grow our betting pool. Though there are so many more opportunities awaiting and the only way we discover what these are is by deciphering the results which I continue to do.

In other words because we have this understanding we’re already turning a profit and we don’t have to wait 3 years to know what to do. So we’re moving forward betting this one way, continuing to bet small until I get down the routine and our pool is consistently growing like Ed, I will then increase the increments.

In addition I’m trying and will continue to try various things that we’ve discovered and because of this sometimes you will see days where we haven’t won, though because when doing so we bet small so we’re not experiencing a big loss. When something doesn’t work or requires an adjustment, I’ll pull back, meaning I don’t bet, instead analyze some more and then try again.

For now it looks like the weekends (Fri-Sat-Sun) will get the majority of our wagers.

You can follow our progress which includes our betting balance sheet at the following link: https://anyhorseplayersoutthere.com/version-2-wagers/

and in case you’re not aware each night we publish a full card for you to view that identifies the Standouts (the programs top rated selection with a big advantage over the next best runner) in bold that you can access each evening usually by 7 PM EST at the following link:
https://anyhorseplayersoutthere.com/potential-bets-all/

Lastly we also publish the Standout results for each day so everyone can follow along with how these are performing. The other day we hit 80%+ in the money with a lot of winners though if we bet all would have lost about $10 cause of so many low price payouts and on that day there were a lot of scratches so many no payouts for show. That’s part of this too.
These are posted at the following link:
https://anyhorseplayersoutthere.com/results-2022-may/

That is the list that I choose our wagers from.

In closing I did get some rest this week, and am rejuvenated. I will continue to be engrossed in our venture, betting, building our bank and adding to things as we move along. For the most part I will remain quiet unless of course we have an exceptional day I will be certain to let you know 🙂

Looking forward to tomorrow’s races.

Deciphering Our Bets

Before I get going… want you to know that I have food poisoning and unfortunately it put me through quite a lot. I’m now just able to work, though am still a bit weak. This happened Sunday yet the excitement of what we have and the wonderful discoveries we’ve made as to how to make our bets is literally what keeps me going.

We’ve come to a similar place Ed found himself in when he began to bet the trainer stats he manually tracked. He understood the value of this information, that a 30% win rate was something he could capitalize on, yet just as important was this meant a 70% loss rate. Its this understanding of statistics that was the key to Ed’s success and why he was able to sustain a profit for more than 30 years. And the great news is, I know first hand how he accomplished this!

Technology has provided us several advantages that were not afforded Ed in the 90s with the first having the capability to daily update all data where we can then export fields that lets us monitor our modules performance which is how we know that since Version 2 the Standouts are winning on average between 30 to 40%, placing 20 to 29% and hitting show on average 11.5% with a consistent in the money hit rate of 72.5%.

From this information it is reasonable to assume that if we flat bet X amount across on all Standouts that we’d begin to make money right away. However, this is not the case. There are many reasons, quite a lot of low payouts. Winners, in the $2.60 to $2.80 range and $2.10 to $2.20 for place and show. And come race day the list of Standouts changes, sometimes several times throughout the day due to scratches, surface conditions and jockey switches which while betting requires my monitoring as well as keeping up with throughout the day.

We have 15K to work with. This is our base. What we’re going to build our bank on. Understand we could go through 15K fast if we plunge before we go through analysis and perceive the best place to invest. So to begin, we essentially have to test bet all scenarios to find what works more often than not and it’s through this that we will establish a routine, a set of rules that percentage wise works more in our favor than not, meaning that these rules win more than they lose and in order to accomplish this, we’re betting small, analyze the results, continue betting what we discover profitable, and more important stop when we’ve tried something and it is not. This is why I bet some days, then stop. We go inside the numbers, adjust to what works, set aside what doesn’t, and go again. Over several weeks we’ve bet all, meaning every single Standout across the board, betting all show since 72.5% on average are in the money, betting place and show, betting smaller amounts in win, more in place, and even more in show and what we’ve found is not unexpected and that is all decisions made boil down to odds and where is their value. Amazingly we’ve discovered ways of getting value from 3/5.

We’re not far, meaning within the next week I see us having at least one consistent money making routine down that will let us open up the amounts we’re betting and we’ll expand from there. In other words I see us rolling steady by Sunday next week. We’ll stay course and continue to analyze which will add to what we bet and in turn continue to add to our bottom line and so on.

The following is a list of reports that I’d like you to view and/or download when you get the chance with an explanation below each. My goal is to relay an understanding of what this analyzing entails and how we’re deciphering what to bet.

This first group is what we recently bet:

Zen Bets 9/23/22, Zen Bets 9/24/22, 9/27/22, 9/28/22 Sorted by Track and Bet Type, 9/28/22, and 9/29/22.

All the above reports were test bets. We bet every single Standout in w/p/s, every daily double and exacta using all to see if this could be flat bet which can not. In addition we bet exotic wagers when we saw something however you can see from these results that this at this point burns too much through what we have to work with yet necessary to try to see.

Next is today’s reports. Since I’ve been working on this post all day at it’s now 8:32 PM Pacific time, and I uploaded these hours ago when about half the races hadn’t yet run, this will give you an idea of what a day is like. In addition I made bets that I was going to include but I ran out of gas so will upload tomorrow. We had a fairly break even day.

9/30/22 Standouts 1, 9/30/22 Standouts 2,

The following is a sorted list of the Standouts. This Shows what tracks to bet and just as important what tracks to avoid and then there are several tracks that are definitely betable however requires discretion.
Standouts sorted by track 6/20/22 to 9/27/22

Re this list, The following track we are to completely avoid: All small tracks that show both quarter horse and T-Breds, all Canadian tracks except for Woodbine including avoiding Fort Erie and the following US Tracks; CT, EVD, PID, EVD.

Then the following is my Guide meaning what to bet Win, Place, or Win, Place and Show according to odds. Right now more generalized that when we have future versions with additional algorithms that increase the win percentage and I’ve found following this guide has saved us money meaning there are times to bet just win, place and not include show and other times where we not only include all three but only bet show.

Morning Line- Odds Table

In closing I need to share some things personal. I do deal with quite a few health issues and almost daily push through no matter but have to be honest in the fact that this really catches up to me. Some days I literally can not get out of bed. Usually this occurs on Monday and some times runs over to Tues after an intense weekend. The reason I share this is cause I want everyone to know that I am doing everything humanly possible to move us forward and my plans are once we have an established routine that we can have my backup bettors take over on days when I am dealing with such. So my goals always have long term thoughts in mind. No need to be concerned. I’m sharing this only because this is what I face yet I have our venture and it’s continuance in the forefront always on my mind.

And I have a request. Because my person can not rattle off a quick reply to anyone who has questions, and I take to heart every persons concerns I ask that you give me this time, whatever it takes, a few weeks or a month to get this right, to get us going without having to personally address anyone’s thoughts. Please know that this request is not because I do not wish to answer or address anyone. It’s purely because I am one person, who unfortunately has to deal with health issues regularly and has to wear quite a few hats while keeping us going that in order to be all I can for everyone I really need to be doing just this, deciphering, analyzing, and betting so we can roll.

Who am I — Who is Susan Sweeney Bain and Where are we Headed?

Long story as short as possible. I never bet on a horse race before Ed, ever. I may have accompanied several to a race track for an evening out yet I did not find myself at a window calling out a bet and when I finally did, it was Only after writing down word for word what Ed said when calling out his bets. This was because I was absolutely petrified that I’d make a mistake and Not that a mistake is something I couldn’t accept, it would be shocking if I meant to wager $6 and when I called out the bet incorrectly they said the actual cost was $180……. LOL But really this was my fear.

Fast forward 30 years of which three I did not bet. I observed a master at work and I can say this cause I witnessed the masters work, work 🙂

So after 3 years of accompanying him to the track and mostly loving the fact that we were outside surrounded by beautiful beings (horses) and very very unique people that Ed and I could fill a book with, I said to Ed that I wanted to bet.

Which brings me to today and what I wish to share.

First anyone who has read my autobiography Signers knows that the very first words Ed said to me when I shared with him that I too wanted to wager was that it was absolutely necessary for me to bet with my own money. My earned money because as like all of us know, making money, enough money so we can live comfortably is all any of us strives for so this is something most of us would not put at risk. I am included in most of us 🙂

Ed was a flat out win bettor. I found this impossible, agonizing and Not anything I would Ever want anything to do with.

Yet my role in our wonderful 30 years together and I do not say this lightly as Ed was truly my soul. His presence in my life essentially ruined me for anyone else which I like. I’m basically his forever and am just fulfilling our lives purpose. Yet his win bets were so cut and dry and would like all to remember that I witnessed his success unfold before my eyes which contrary to what some people believe took years and years to develop. I did Not personally like the way Ed bet at all. I found it stressful but after I jumped in I was studious to the umpth degree because I was truly learning from the master However several years later after witnessing his top selections coming in the money on average 60% of the time, around 18 to 20% winning, and almost always at high returns I figured there just had to be a way to capitalize on this and Not betting Place or Show…………..

The reason I bring all this up is I am Not equipped with the ability to bet like Ed. Far removed, however, I am an excellent exotic bettor with my specialty within races when we have a stat that I perceive will be in the money at least 60% of the time with a morning line of at least 9/2. And anyone who has been around us for some time knows that I kill this. Even Ed knew and relied on me to fill out tickets especially when he was considering betting an exacta or a tri.

So my dilema came in cause Ed and me understood Bill Benter’s winning formula is he bet 70 to 75% of his wagers on win, place and or show. Now granted this was when he reached a plateau that we’ve yet to accomplish which takes money though when he made this statement he was already producing 70% winners, where we are between 30 to 40%. Though substantial we still have a way to go but this won’t happen until we’re properly funded.

I guess the best way to look at what we have is we’re about 30% of where we’re going to be. Though that does Not mean we can’t make things work now. And considering the funding options are not currently present to the point of my acceptance, this is pretty dam good.

Yet please know me. Who I am. I am responsible for 36 shareholders of which I actually count as 72 because each persons significant other matters so I take this responsibility very serious.

That said, it was Not until Today that the light bulb went off. I finally realized after we reached this point of my betting for us that I just can not bet strictly win, place and/or show. This is so foreign to me but I am a well established, high percentage of wins exotic bettor and I am certain I can make us money this way only I must maintain this to an as race per basis.

Meaning serial wagers will kill our bank roll (though not completely out as we will bet them) however superfectas and trifectas won’t. So today this is where I concentrated my full effort. This does not mean that I didn’t place win/place and or show wagers But what this means is I went after the score and for the first time I felt at home. Though we basically broke even today I saw the light. Before it was a huge step to see betting $50 to show on a horse would change any of our lives. Yet if my key horse is at least 9/2 I can bet this horse in all slots and make us a profit.

Soooo….. this update is to let you know that Today is a Huge Day. Everything has come into focus. I’ve got this figured out. I’ve got us Covered. From this day forward I have absolutely no doubt that we’re going to fly….

What I need and this is mostly because I wear so many hats is time to just bet for us without having to explain anything. Not that I don’t want everyone to know what is going on. It’s purely that being in the position to share my every move doesn’t give me this freedom. Even though I wish to share all, and will, it’s best that I am not having to fill in each day details.

After all whenever anyone trades stocks in the market how often do they have regular personal communication with the person who set up the venture.

That said, we of course will post our wagers, the potential bets for the previous days and the results so all is transparent and everyone can follow along.

We’re here! We reached the point of reaping benefits. Now my primary focus is to keep us rolling. This does not escape me. I completely understand that this is All up to me…. and I plan to perform.

Next Post: 30 to 40% win rate still equates to a 60 to 70% loss rate. Yet we Are using the program and maintaining a profit.

Let’s Roll ……

OK…. 🙂

We begin with a 15K betting pool which is what we currently have in hand. There are several other commitments that would bring us to $17,500 though best to wait to count this towards our pool balance once funds are in.

It’s time to get into the details; What we have. How we’ll invest, along with the basis surrounding these decisions as well as what to expect as we move along. Since there is much to share and I will be investing for us this week, I plan to write this in a series.

Beginning with what we have

Like all Apps our program evolves as we deploy versions. Where substantial improvements to the user interface and the percentages of winners and in the money increase with each release.

It is important to keep in mind that our program has been built for one person to use, cull through, set aside potentials, update throughout the day to include race day changes; scratches, jockey switches and surface conditions which almost always amends the Standout list. And because my decisions on what we may bet are decided the evening before, I pay close attention to these changes the day of before making any decision final. Yet it is imperative for me to keep tabs on these wagers prior to each race because the odds can still determine a pass which is why you will see money in the cancel credit column.

The program publishes a top selection for every race run from the algorithms in place, and these are in the money on average 60% of the time. Yet our module was specifically designed to notify us of races where one runner within each race has at least a 10 point advantage over the next runner in that race, or what we refer to as “Standouts” (used to refer to as the Potential Bets). It’s this list that has consistently produced winners on average between 30 and 40% and an in the money hit rate of 72.5%. And this is not only fantastic, it’s amazing and the reason why I know we can win. This also explains why this list can change after scratches because a horse that had an advantage may not have one anymore or a horse that did not have one, now does. Jockey Switches are another variable that’s at play as each trainer does have go-to jocks and this is a built in algorithm, even more refined that the Jockey-Trainer reports we used to produce so when I’m betting and working towards making us money I have to be on top of this pretty much all day.

The interface has Not been designed to print anything. We are able to export results, though currently only for the top selection and not for every runner in each race once the database has been updated and these reports are used to monitor how the module is performing so we know precisely what adjustments we need to make. Even though we are able to use the program now, because this is a work in progress it is not uncommon for something to not function properly every once in awhile, albeit nothing major. Occasionally we’ve had the same runner show up multiple times in the field in a race and noticed this occurred after running the days update. Its understood that making adjustments will continue until we reach our intended goal of producing 70 to 75% winners (not in the money). These reports provide data similar to the records Ed kept when he was manually compiling his statistics and tracking his bets. It is from these exported reports that we are able to publish the results from the Standouts each day on the website.

And we are able to export several full cards to a spreadsheet which again isn’t made ready for viewing so they require clean up which is a task performed by one of our assistants in order to share the full cards for tracks like Saratoga and Del Mar.

As previously mentioned in quite a few blog posts that in order for our venture to work only one person who is making our bets can have regular access to the daily list of Standouts for the sole purpose of making wagers for Zen. Giving access to all would defeat our intended purpose and the reason we built this which is for all Zen shareholders to profit and not one alone.

That said, something Ed and I discussed for when we reached this point of my betting for Zen, is we both would like to provide all shareholders with some gems which is the reason why we kept this export option in when we deployed Version 2. Beginning next week, after Del Mar closes we will post a full card each day for a full week and in order to please all palates we will alternate between the high profile tracks.

Soon we will have Jockey-Trainer reports for you, similar to the pdf I found for New York that Ed compiled from 2018 that we shared in a recent email. This does however require some manual compiling so this will also take a little bit of time though we are in the process of readying things for this now and after we finish setting things on the site in order for all to follow our progress we’ll resume.

I started to bet for us today. The winning formula requires 70 to 75% of our wagers be on Win, Place, and or Show and 20 to 25% on exotics. Currently the program’s top selection is in the money 72.5% of the time however the selections for the remainder of the field is very hit and miss. Because of this, it’s imperative to our bottom line that I limit the exotic wagers and have successfully done so on paper betting doubles and exactas though most time when doing so these bets include all. I’m attaching today’s bets here.

I’ve been working on this blog post between today’s wagers in order to share with you how I am going to bet and at the point of saving these wagers there were several that had yet to run. I also planned to watch the odds on one of these races because the morning line was low however missed doing so. Mentioning because under normal circumstances if bet too low I would pass. However up until this point we were fairly even for the day.

I do plan on looking at races every day. In order for me to be all I can be for all of us which means being able to monitor the races as they happen each day and also figure out the potentials the night before I basically have to become a hermit. And as a one man show, who is the only person at present that can access the casino’s betting site, I am also the one who downloads the spreadsheets of our wagers. And especially now as all this is new and I’m establishing a routine it would be challenging to have to post our wagering reports daily so during this “beginning phase” I will post our wagers made once a week or if able more often so everyone can follow our progress and watch our betting pool grow! 🙂

And we plan to share videos of what we have and between things I plan to continue to update everyone on the blog.

So……… all this is Great News! We made it. We’re Here! As of this week we’re officially in business. Now it’s up to me to make us some money and this is what I plan to do!

Let em roll at the quarter pole!
Thank You Partners. We couldn’t have gotten here without You.

Version 2 – 1 Month Review

We really have something here and rather than send emails daily about the progress which I have been so tempted to do, I thought the best way to show you what we’ve accomplished is by letting the results speak for themselves.

Download Version 2 Standout Results from 6/20/22 through 7/19/22

We deployed Version 2 on June 20, 2022 and keep track of the results daily and since day one through yesterday, there were 1,466 Standouts, 497 Won for a 33.90% on average win rate, 368 Placed for a 25.10% on average place rate, and 210 Showed for a 14.32% on average show rate and an on average in the money hit rate of 73.32%!

There were 3 races that did not offer place wagers and 64 that did not offer wagers for show. Had we bet $2 across the board on all the Standouts we would have invested $8,656.00 and got back $9,026.42 for a $370.42 profit before adding the 5% on average cash reward for WPS which would add $432.80 to our bottom line or a total profit of $803.22 for $2 bet.

In order to show the value, betting $20 across would net a profit of $8,032.20, and a more realistic amount would be our betting $200 across which would net $80,322.00 profit, on our debut month.

What would this mean to you

Assuming we begin with our slate clean where we no longer owe the developers the $300K for work already completed which would have been a lot more had I not invested everything that I personally have in order to complete and deploy version 2, this $80K is profit after replenishing our betting bank of $200K, though does not include covering the $30,000 monthly operating costs so we’d share $50,322.00 in dividends, or $503.22 per share for one month.

Understand this example is being used to simplify things in order to explain what we can expect as most likely we would not make all these bets due to odds. Realistically we could not bet $200 across on a Standout at a track like Charles Town without depleting the value of the bet, though we could bet more than this at a track like Saratoga or Del Mar so the $200 base is an on average amount we’d wager.

In addition these payouts do not include any exotic wagers like exactas or daily doubles which we would also bet sparingly at first. Exotics generally reap larger payouts as well as cash rewards, however, the proven winning formula to our success, imperative we adhere to especially at this stage, is 70 to 75% of our wagers should always be on win, place and or show and 20 to 25% of our bets placed on exotics.

With these lucrative results it may be difficult to believe that we have a ways to go in order to reach our goal of an on average win percentage of 70%, which I am confident we will obtain as long as we can keep the developing going.

The great news is we have reached the point where we can be consistently profitable so things will only get better as we deploy future versions.

And yes, if you haven’t noticed, I am chomping at the bit to resume making our bets and am doing my absolute best to patiently wait for funding. The carrots dangling and soon we’ll be in reach. This must be what the horses feel like after spending 24/7 in their stall just waiting to bust loose on the track… Gives me a new appreciation of their perspective.

Lightning Strikes Twice – Version 2 Does it Again!

I have incredible news….

Just yesterday I shared with you that we began tracking All the programs top selections, in addition to the Potential Bet Standouts that the program identifies in order to monitor how Version 2 is performing when this amazing result happened again. We actually produced a flat bet profit if we bet the programs top selection in every single race on July 3rd and July 4th!

Yesterday there were 159 races with 10 races not offering a payout for show; 56 won for a 35% win rate, 29 placed for and 18.23% place rate, and 22 showed for a 13.84% show rate and an overall in the money hit rate of 67.29%. Bet $2 across on all 159 (minus the 10 no show payout) we would have invested $934 and received a payout of $957 for an overall profit of $23 had we bet the programs top selection in every single race! This is nothing short of amazing! To download the PDF with the full results for the last two days click here

A note about yesterday’s Potential Bet Standout list that differed from 7/3s Potential Standouts is 7/4s produced a slight loss. There were 52 potential bet standouts with 2 races not offering a payout for show. Had we bet $2 across we would have invested $308 and received back $305.90 for a loss of $2.10. 22 won for a 42% win rate, 10 placed for a 19.2% place rate and 8 showed for a 15.4% show rate and an overall in the money hit rate of 76.9%.

It’s important to note that the Potential Bet Standout list does change, sometimes several times during the day of the races. This is due to variables such as scratches, jockey switches, track conditions excreta so our developers included a feature for me to be able to update the report throughout race day. I make note of this because access to these changes is imperative to making our investment decisions.

There will be races that are no longer on the list and ones that were added. This is due to the ratings because in order to make the potential bet standout list there has to be at least a 10 point higher spread in a rating in the order of runners from the next runners rating. In other words if the programs first selection has a rating of a 90 and the next runner has an 80, then the 90 rated horse makes the list. So if there are scratches or jockey switches these changes can impact the ratings. Say a horse that made this list has a rating of 90 and this runner is scratched and leaves the highest rated horse an 80 and then the next best runner is the same race is 70 or less, then the 80 rated horse would replace the scratched 90 high rated horse on the standout list. However if the 80 rated horse remained and the next best rating was 71, then no runner from that race would replace the scratched runner because of a 9 point difference, not 10.

In addition, there are tracks that I initially would Not bet so we do not include these in the day list that my assistants prepare for me yet we still monitor their results. As an example HST, ASD, Canadian tracks or LA Los Alamitos (not LRC which is all T-breds) so any track that runs a mixture of quarter horse races on the same card as some T-breds.
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Because I received a note from one of the shareholders that he did not receive yesterday’s email about reaching this milestone, I’m including that message below. Don’t want one person missing out on our progress.

Been tracking the Standout Potential Bet results of Version 2, a total of 15 days, and so far we have had only 3 days where we lost money if we bet all, one day we broke even (made .10 cents) though on this day the standouts were in the money 85%, with the remaining 11 days profitable that all combined summed positive and we have maintained an on average 72.5% in the money! 

This is an amazing accomplishment and just when you think the news couldn’t get any better, yesterday I decided to track all the program’s top selections for all races at all race tracks running in our database, meaning not just the “Standout Potential Bets” but each full race cards top picks and there were 153 races with 12 not offering a payout for show which if we bet $2 across the board on each, 49 won for a 32% win rate, 26 placed for a 16.9% place rate and 22 showed for a 14.3% show rate and an overall in the money hit rate of 63.33% we would have invested $894 and got back $953.70 for a total profit of $59.70 if we bet every single race’s top pick!  This is almost unbelievable and a most welcome surprise. 

The Standouts which were also profitable with 53 races at $2 across on each, 21 won for a 40% win rate, 15 placed for a 28.8% place rate and 2 showed for a 3.8% show rate and an overall in the money hit rate of 71.6%, we would have invested $318 and got back $371 for a total profit of $53.00 which shows us how great our program is already at pulling out the best potential wagers because the profit for the 53 races the program selected as the Standouts almost alone produced the full profit for the day.  $59.70 overall for 153 races, and $53.00 profit for 53 races which betting all 153 only produced $6.70 difference.  Though that doesn’t include any cash return on the investment where had we bet all 153 we would have averaged another 5% or around another $44.70 for a total overall profit of $104.40 by betting $2 across the board on all 153!

To put this in perspective, say we bet $20 across instead of $2, our overall profit would be $1,044, or $200, our overall profit for the day would be $10,440 so you can see what’s in store.

I realize this is one day and until we have more overall days tracked (which today began the first of tracking all), we’ll be able to gauge if this is on going and also the best approach however after reviewing this I couldn’t wait to share this great news!

Great News! Version 2 Woo Hoo!

On Monday 6/20/22 we deployed Version 2 and in just three days of racing have experienced major progress to our betting program with the most noticeable improvement in the daily list of Potential Bet Summary reaching on average 30 to 40% winners and an overall on average in the money of 70% and if bet $2 to win, place and show on every runner that made the list (which we will never do because of weighing odds to percentages), we prove a flat bet profit betting all!

Let’s share this fantastic news again
Before Version 2 and from the dates of 11/28 through 4/5/22 there were 5,115 Potential Bets of which 1,358 of these won for a 26.5% win rate, 2,307 placed for a 45% place rate and 2,995 showed for a 58.6% show rate, however 33 of these did not offer investments on show bets leaving 2,962 having a payout. If we had placed $2 across the board on all 5,115, we would have invested $30,690 and received back $24,968.70 for an overall loss of $5,721.30 or 18.6%.

Since June 20th when Version 2 was deployed, even with several additional adjustments pending, the program listed 123 Potential Bets of which 39 won for an on average of 31% win rate, 30 placed for an on average of 24% place rate and 18 showed for an on average of 14.6% show rate for an overall on average 70% hit rate in the money. If we bet $2.00 across on all 123 (minus 4 races that did not offer a show payout) we would have wagered $730 and received back $805 for an overall flat bet Profit of $75 if bet all! 🙂 🙂 🙂

PB BETS 6/20 through 6/22 Page 1
PB BETS 6/20 through 6/22 Page 2
PB BETS 6/20 through 6/22 Page 3
PB Bets 6/20 through 6/22 Page 4

For a pdf version of Version 2 Potential Bet Results Report
Click Here

Keep in mind that during Version 1 I was unable to completely rely on the Potential Bet list to make our bets knowing that getting these base algorithms in place was the first step and adjusting and adding algorithms in later versions that define the hierarchy of each runners rating would substantially improve in later versions, so when I placed our wagers my selections were not exclusively from this list. I did however prove us profitable by making selections from Ed’s 4-race form cycle statistics displayed to me from the runners listed below the top pick.

To define, when a runner has a positive trainer or trainer/jockey move on one of Ed’s 4-race form cycle stats of Layoffs, Claims or Debuts, that runner receives a positive point in the hierarchy of things and so on and everything is specific to track, class, distance and surface and we realized going in that we could be tweaking the numbers too much though we’d know what adjustments to make by monitoring the results which had a big impact on the adjustments made for Version 2.

The ultimate goal for the Potential Bet list, that we are confident we will obtain in increments as we add algorithms to Versions is for the program to produce a daily report of the best investment opportunities for each day reaching 70 to 75% on average wins, that hit and profit from all odds levels.

The following is a list of what was in Version 1 followed by Version 2:

Version 1 includes:

Algorithms that are and always will be Specific to: Track, Class, Distance and Surface (soon to include surface condition)

Benter’s algorithms

Ed Bain 4-race form cycle algorithms for:
Layoffs
Claims
Debuts races

Jockey-Trainer statistics

Hierarchy by rating of Projected runners in order of finish for each race determined by the algorithms

Standouts (Potential Bet Summary)
The standouts is a list of the module selected runners who have an overwhelming (currently set at minimum of 10 point spread) rating higher than all other runners in any particular race.

Results
The ability to export all race results to spreadsheets for every thoroughbred track running in our database in order for us to monitor our progress and know what we should adjust.

Version 2 includes:

All within Version 1. Because as expected the results prove the settings too skewed, (a temporary ongoing occurrence through fruition) the adjustments in this version are as follows;

Change in distances
Instead of specific to each distance we are separating and grouping together 5.5 furlongs and under, 6 furlongs through and including 7 furlongs, 7.5 furlongs through and including 1 mile 1/16, and 1 mile and 1/8 and longer.

Change is Class Grouping (in place of each specific to)
Allowance
Claims
Optional Claims
MSW
MCL
MOC

Age
Dissecting how mixed age groups perform within specific categories, 2 year olds alone, 3 year olds alone, 3 and 4 year olds, 3 4 5 year olds, 3 4 5 year olds and up within same race and 5 to 6 year olds and up in the same race.

Most important Change of all
Additional emphasis added to Ed’s 4-race form cycle statistics as the results show these as a good percentage portion of the wins.

Ed’s statistics are what I chose to bet in conjunction with a very select group from the Potential Bet list when using Version 1 and are the reason I was able to prove profitable before Version 2. Though I must say that I had to handicap for hours every day to accomplish this and knowing that this would all change with an influx of capital as progressing requires an influx is the very reason I switched gears to do so. And as previously stated I’ll remain quiet on this topic until the influx of capital is in hand.




Belmont Pick 6

Happy Belmont Stakes Day. The pick 6 looks rather chalky today so I don’t want to invest a lot. Here’s our wager:

06/11 11:13 AM Belmont 6 $1.00 P6 1 / 4 / 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 12, 13 / 1, 2 / 2, 4, 9 / 1, 3, 6 $126.00

Good Luck to everyone today!

Derby Pick 6 Wagers


We also bet a Pick 4 just in case:

05/07 12:01 PM Churchill Downs 9 $0.50 P4 6, 7 /1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 / 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21 $140.00

Hi everyone.

Happy Derby Day!

Just wanted to let you know our Pick 6 Wagers for the Derby:

05/07 10:55 AM Churchill Downs 7 $0.20 P6 10 / 2.4.5.7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 / 8 / 3 $56.00

05/07 10:55 AM Churchill Downs 7 $0.20 P6 10 / 2,4,5,7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 / 3 / 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21 $160.00

05/07 10:55 AM Churchill Downs 7 $0.20 P6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12 / 2 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 / 3 / 8 / 6 $20.00

05/07 10:55 AM Churchill Downs 7 $0.20 P6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 / 2, 4, 5, 7 / 6, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 / 6 / 3, 6, 10 $403.20

Best of luck,

Susan

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