If you’ve read Ed’s novel “Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines”, like me, you probably found yourself surprised that the first 80 or so pages did not mention horse racing. Especially with that cover! I’d wager you would be even more surprised to know, so was Ed.
He initially wrote the book this way. However when our editor whose chosen way to edit is as he goes along as opposed to reading all first and then edit found when he began, he was unable to put together how Ed arrived to the point where horse racing was his entire life. Ed kept suggesting he skip to the end of the book so he would understand, however, since this was not the way Ed’s editors worked, this topic of correspondence went back and forth for several months until finally out of sheer frustration Ed’s editor read the end of the book. And when he did, he immediately put all 80 or so of those pages in front. And then how horse racing became the dominate in Ed Bain’s brain made sense to him and it did to us too.
I wanted to share this story because it is relevant to where we are in our venture now. We’ve been saying for more than a year that we are developing an amazing program; loaded with algorithms that no one else has ever thought of, etc without being able to tell you to read the end of the book because that information part was proprietary, so you could see the same certainty that Ed and I see of our ventures success until 2/14/21 when Version 1 was released.
The build up has been great and now that version one is released I finally can fill you in and have to say my enthusiasm is so great that it can’t be fast enough, that’s how exciting all this is. We want you to see what Ed and I see. We want to let you read the end of the book first so we’re all on the same page as we move along in our venture.
And the beginning is not rushing in, making test bets. It’s letting you know everything first, how our venture will unfold; what our investment actually means as well as it’s value at present and in the near future, when we expect to get to the point of paying dividends and then how these will be dispersed, our structure; what we plan to accomplish in this phase of test bets, and so on and this has to be presented first before we proceed with test bets. We want everyone to know the process of these test bets, the whys and how imperative it is for me to become familiar with what we have in order to profit the most from what we’ve already accomplished.
Speaking of test bets, during the three days that our internet service provider was upgrading and our service was intermittently interrupted I had a chance to really explore what we currently have integrated in our betting program and found the place that I need to go to select our bets. And this currently is NOT what we’re displaying on our Potential Bets list, though it will be in the near future once additional algorithms are in. So I ran with this and where it lead me and have to say this is nothing short of amazing! The results are better than expected, especially in this early phase that it’s truly made me giddy. I plan to write about this in depth during this week of blog posts however right after we’re all informed and up to date on the structure and process of how things will unfold but I’m compelled to give a brief overview.
To begin I actually came to this after having several horrible back to back result days from the potential wagers list and was determined to find what I knew had to be within grasp but for some reason I was not seeing. Understand that just because Ed and I told the developers the contents to include, the algorithms to write and what to present does not mean that I know how to use our program yet. And this is to be expected as all this is part of the test process. By writing about how our program is designed and the ultimate end goal which will eventually be the list of potential wagers, it made me realize that the only potential wagers currently making it on this list are the ones that we have the least algorithms for. In other words, the majority on the list include seasoned runners who have had a lot of tries or debut races where the horses may have little or no tries but their trainer does, as an example Todd Pletcher has a big stable and it’s full of young horses and his training focus is predominately here so calculations will show stats on his maiden runners where a trainer like Neil Drysdale who has very few runners in his stable in comparison to Pletcher and Drysdale training is geared in a different direction that includes mostly seasoned horse that run on turf. So if Neil Drysdale and multiple trainers with smaller stables enter a Maiden race with Todd Pletcher, the way the program is designed by assigning a hierarchy and then listing the ones that have an advantage over all other runners in the race will make it to our potential bet list. So Pletcher’s runners currently will show a considerable advantage over all other runners in a race who has trainers like Drysdale’s because the algorithms that would identify his attributes are not yet included. In this scenario Drysdale’s horse will most likely show at the bottom of the same list. The same in reverse since Drysdale has been training for many years and our database contains data back through 2012 and today’s race conditions is for seasoned horses on the turf and Pletcher also has an entry. More than likely in our programs current form, Drysdale would show on top of the hierarchy and Pletcher at the bottom even though we know Pletcher capable but this is an example of why we currently can not use the potential betting list.
The most important part to test betting is being open for change because there is going to be a lot of it, especially early on. Though initially I thought that it would take 6 months before we would reach the level of daily profits, and regular bets however after I discovered what we have sitting here and that it is such a major break through that I truly see we’re going to start turning daily profits within the next 2 months! Here’s why:
Below is a screen shot of the test bets I made from culling through each race, track by track finding potential bets, viewing who had a percentage advantage over who and you’ll see we made 5 daily double wagers, hit zero, 22 exacta wagers and hit 8, 2 pick 4 wagers and hit zero, and 37 Win/Place/and or Show bets and hit 22. This was yesterday. Saturday I was able to figure out what I would do and because I wasn’t able to wager due to the interruption of the internet connection I logged what I would have bet and the results of these were similar. The only difference is I did not do any exotic wagers beyond daily doubles and exactas. What the results say is right now we should only be betting win/place/show with an occasional exacta or daily double bet until the algorithms tell us otherwise.
In closing today’s post I’d like to give you this weeks planned schedule. Keeping in mind that I am only one person doing all these tasks and much is yet to be accomplished; I plan to use Tues through Thursday or maybe even Friday to post all the particulars and then we’ll resume test betting either Friday or Saturday which will no longer include the list of potential bets though between now and then I’ll let you know how this will also unfold. At this juncture it is imperative for all of us to be on the same page so to speak to know where we’re heading, what to expect and when.
I sense Ed’s presence and its always with a smile upon us.
This is exciting, and your leadership, “eyes and hands” on this is very thorough and strong. There is no rush, this is part of the beauty of horse racing- there are always the next races, so preparation and being built with a sound, reproducible and unique foundation is what matters, and it should be fun, lessening the chore.
HR
So excited for you Susan and thanks for the updates. I just finished reading Ed’s story yesterday at about the same hour you sent the update. You indeed filled the role of the guardian angel with the one major Trainer detail Ed was missing. I suspect that you indeed were the missing link needed to insure Ed’s success. So happy for you that you are now able to continue the journey you shared. I believe Ed is looking down and smiling with his approval.