Passing Races

The track I perform best at year after year is Aqueduct.  It is the premier claiming track in the U.S. for me. When all the big stables go to Gulfstream for the winter meet and take their high class pedigree horses with them, all the hard knockers remain for the cold and blustery days of racing at the big A and the claiming begins.

Claiming a horse out of a race can put you into the game almost instantly. You can have your first race within 14 days with your newly claimed horse. Once a horse is claimed I get a count on every trainer’s results for the 1st, 2nd 3rd 4th race after a claim separated by sprint and route.

Why a trainer claims a horse is not an issue. I have a hit rate on him as the horse goes through his first 4 race form cycle with this trainer. I am handicapping a specific statistic and a visual pattern at the same time.

At Aqueduct on Saturday there are 7 claim 1 sprint or route claims. This will be the first race for this trainer and the first race in the 4 race form cycle.

A total of 16 horses and their trainers are in the 4 race claim form cycle.

When I handicap I use two filters to cut that 16 down to a smaller amount of claiming trainers and their horses.

  1. If the horse won its last race.  I pass that horse as a key horse bet. If the horse won its last race it has already had it’s best race though there is one exception; if a horse was laid off on a win and is now returning from a layoff he can qualify as a bet.
  2. If the horse is the morning line favorite, then the horse is out as a bet except when the morning line is 3/1 or higher. I pass all horses at 5/2 and lower as a key horse bet.

Seven horses won their last race which leaves 9.  By the way because I passed these stats does not mean they will not hit the exacta.  I just find other races that are more appealing. Here are the stats in the exacta for all the runners at Aqueduct as well as the patterns and handicapping.

All stats are for the exacta.

Race 2
# 3 horse, The Great Samurai has a Morning Line (M/L) of 5/2. John Toscano has a Claim 2 in a Route race with stats of 30-10-33% at Aqueduct.

The 5/2 M/L is the reason for the Pass.

# 4 horse, Lost Iron has a 3/1 M/L.  Linda Rice is on a Claim 3 in a Route race with stats of 37-14-44%. A great stat however Linda had to lay the horse off. At Aqueduct on Claim 2 in a Route race at 1 mile she is 20-1-4-25%.  For a horse to be a key horse for me to bet, I handicap to win not to place so with a 20-1 record I will pass.

# 5 horse Peculiar Sensation trained by John Toscano is on a Claim 2 in a Route race which has stats of 30-10-30%.  Kendrick Carmouche and John Toscano at 1 mile at Aqueduct.  Here are their stats; 23 were sprints with 13 hits in the exacta for a 56% hit rate in routes.  They are 11-1-9% in Routes.  Toscano is a Sprint Claiming Trainer and not a Route Claiming Trainer. In pattern playing it’s important to understand that to be a pattern A has to connect to B.  The 11-1-9% says the connection is not there for the pattern to complete so I’ll pass!

# 6 horse Star Empire is 12/1.  Abigail Adsit is on a Claim 4 in a Route race and her stats are 14-2-14%. The final race in the form cycle Adsit tops out at 15% on Claim 3 route. I hit Abigail Adsit a few weeks ago on this blog on a Spike Play and she paid $14 to win.  For this stat, she is a pass.

Race 4

# 3 horse Hay Jabber Jaw is 15/1. Roberto Diodoro is on a Claim 3 in a Sprint race and his stats are 60-23-38%.  His exacta stats on Claim 4 Sprint are 38-19-58%.  The race before Claim 2 sprint, Diodoro is 47%. The Claim 3 Sprint is a good stat but is a bounce compared to the form cycle so I will pass.  

Race 5
# 3 horse, Alaapatique
is 4/1. Denis Lalman on Claim 2 in a Sprint race is 2-1-50%, a pass.

# 5 horse, Professor Snap is 4/1. Antonio Arriga is 5-2-40%, a pass.

# 6 horse, Buddy Anthony is on a Richard Schosberg Claim 1 in a Sprint race with stats of 15-5-33%.  Schosberg claimed this horse from Brad Cox, another claiming trainer. Because the horse won it’s last race it’s a pass.

Race 6

# 8 horse, H Man is 3/1. Jeremiah Englehart has a Claim 4 in a Sprint race with stats of 40-21-52%.  Jockey Trevor McCarthy and Jeremiah Englehart are 8-1-12% so this is a pass.

Race 7
# 2 horse, Will Did It is 5/1. John Toscano is on a Claim 1 in a Sprint race with stats of  61-17-27% in the exacta, a pass.

# 3 horse, Major League is 5/1. Rudy Rodriguez is on a Claim 1 sprint with stats of  101-54-53%.  The horse Won the last Race, pass.

# 6 horse, War Eagle’s Return has a morning line of 7/2. Carlos Martin is on a Claim 1 in a Sprint race.  His stats are 15-2-13% and a pass.

Race 9
# 3 horse, Slam Chowder
. A Bruce Levine trained horse on Claim 1 in a Sprint race is 54-16-29%. Bruce Levine has no races with jockey Joe Rocco Jr. so this is a pass.

# 6 horse, Exchange Secrets is 5/1. Trainer Gary Gullo is on a Claim 1 in a Sprint with stats of 77-32-41%. This horses last win was in 2016 so this is a pass.

# 7 horse, Perin’s Pride is 6/1.  Trainer Diodoro Robertino is on a Claim 2 in a Sprint race is 91-43-47%. Robertino started out West, I believe Turf Paradise then he went to Southern California and started claiming horses.  Then Robertino traveled to tracks in the Midwest and on to the East. His stats for Claim 1 in a Sprint race is 42%. He is a little better at Claim 2 in a Sprint race, 47%.  Kendrick Carmouche and Robertino are 3-0. Kendrick is a very good jockey at 6/1. I will take him as a bet because of the improvement expected on Claim 2 Sprint. He will be a key in an exacta bet for me.

# 8 horse, Lady Constance has a M/L of 5/2. M. Kantarmaci is on a Claim 1 sprint and is 0 wins so this is a Pass.

There is visual handicapping with the 4 race form cycle. As much as analyzing a statistic there is also handicapping other factors in every race. Knowing how to pass races is an art compared to the stat. I guarantee some of the races I pass will hit the exacta. The real improvement in handicapping is when you do not bet every race you handicap.
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2 Replies to “Passing Races”

  1. According to the BRIS pp’s in Aqu 9th #7 perina’s pride is 3rd off the claim. However the last race was at a mile. Is that why it is still a C2S?

    1. I was missing the race on Jan 28th. Thank you for sending this over. I think I ran the build to early. When I saw your post I ran it a second time and it picked that race up. So Diodero is actually on a Claim 3 Sprint where he is 16-23-38%. At Aqueduct he is 2 for 2, both wins on Claim 3 Sprint. I drove over to Albuquerque Downs, made my bets and I’ll live with the results.

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