Handicapping

If you think you can win a million dollars a year betting on the horses as a professional handicapper I want to be betting into the same races as you. Not because I do not think it is possible to win this but because human nature is to gamble, to take a shot or just get lucky with one big life changing hit. If I am in these pools I can take advantage of what I know, of what I am doing, to what they know and what they are doing.

By being in these same pools I can cash exactas or trifectas multiple times and get much better odds because these players are living the dream of a life changing million dollar score.

The attraction to betting is you can get lucky and win big money however, what is a lot of money when you cash? I can bet and hit a trifecta 10 times. Bet a million this way to win a million is a much easier approach than one big hit.

To bet a million you do not have to have a million in the bank. You need to play $4,000 a day, $20,000 a week and $80,000 a month, about 100 bets. It does not matter how much you spend per day per race.  $100 a race, five times a day, $2,500 per week, you would need $10,000 for a months worth of 100 plays. Many players do not realize the life changing hit comes with handicapping, not luck and it is not one hit, it is a bunch of them year after year. Winning a million and betting a million is a 100% return on investment and is a very high bar to set.

Betting exactas and trifectas is the way I played for years. When I was a $2 player a weeks wages was the goal I tried to hit.

My statistics on Layoff and Claims made me into an entirely different player. These statistics were instantly important and unlike any thing I ever tracked. When I began using them I never went back to betting the $2 approach.  The 4-race form cycle had a visual effect. I was able to see patterns where I could see when to bet or when to pass.

Statistics are crucial. In horse racing a percentage of 20% for a trainer’s year to date win rate puts him in the top ten trainers at the track. A 30% win rate for a Layoff or Claim statistic is significant.

The take over of statistics and the 4-race form cycle as an approach to place a bet happened for me all at once. There was no learning curve. I knew how to handicap and play.

Filters are a mechanical way to remove unwanted statistics and I applied filters on stats that prevented me from making bets that were poor betting opportunities. As an example when a horse won their last race I filter them out.

The big issue became how much to bet per race. This was something I had to work into; bet large enough without questioning the odds or worrying about losing. If I bet $4,000 a day, the fear was how much this totaled to in one month and this meant I could lose $80,000. The fear began when I had only lost one bet. The thought that I could lose $80,000 in one month preoccupied my thoughts almost to a distraction.

Bet sizing was a real bear for me to figure out. I was not used to betting large amounts of money per race. I always boxed exactas and I never bet the exacta straight. I learned to make the same size bet on every play so each time I hit I would cash for thousands. Once I selected a key horse, the amount invested for the bottom half of the exacta was very difficult for me to solve. I went with a two to one amount. If I bet a $40 exacta on top I would bet a $20 exacta on the bottom.

Good trainers with Layoffs and Claims stats have around a 15% place rate and this is the problem because the trainer places about 1 out 7 races. I knew that I would be over betting the bottom half of the exacta however, I averaged four bets a day, twenty a week, eighty bets a month and about a thousand bets a year. From these bets there were 150 place hits and these places stopped losing streaks and kept me in the right handicapping mindset. I did not cash on 150 place bets. I hit about 1 out of every 4. I had to bet enough to make money every time I cashed to catch up for my losing bets and make money for the day.

The correct bet to make is an art. I learned to go with a key horse and the key horse is always handicapped to win. I key this horse in an exacta or trifecta. Betting the trifecta multiple times is my pick 6 and my big score bet. It is actually a very simple way to bet.

Plays For Saturday 9/8

Parx Race 3 # 1 Party Pants 12/1 Juan Guerrero a Lay 1 Route 53-18-33%. When I look at his form cycle on race 2 after a layoff he is 13%, a bounce caused by this race. I have no stats on the jockey J N Hernandez. Juan Guerrero had a $21 Layoff Route winner on the 2nd of June and he is 0 for his last 8. Two were favorites on Lay 1 Route at Parx, a play at 12/1.

Parx Race 10 # 3 In the Script 8/1. Michael Pino Claim 1 Sprint with stats of 126-26-20%.  Of these 126 he is 74-19-25% in Claiming races. He claimed him from Juan Serey another very good claiming trainer.  Pino claimed him when he went from a purse of 41K to 20.5K. The players made him the 7/5 favorite on the drop and he came in fifth in a six horse field. Today he is in a purse of 28K. The horse is 2-12-16% at 6 furlongs.

Jockey Michael Sanchez at Parx with Michael Pino is 61-17- 21%. Pino’s 4-race form cycle is 20% 14% 19% 0%, a Key horse bet.

Gulfstream Park Race 7 # 3 Lady Magica 7/2 a Gilberto Zerpa Debut 2 Sprint 14-5-35%. With owner GV21 Entertainment LLC they are 21-11-52% and jockey E. Jaramillo with Gilberto Zerpa is 65-40-62% in the exacta sprint. Nothing in his works say he is ready for a big race, just some really nice stats to bet. His 4-race form cycle is 29% 35% 0% 50%. Zerpa is a Key horse exacta bet.

Belmont Race 10 # 6 Teachable Moment 7/2 A Chad Brown Debut 3 Sprint with stats of 91-35-38%. From these stats 25 were at Belmont. He won 12 for a 48% win rate. Javier Castellano is in the irons in Maiden Special Weight Sprint and this Trainer-Jockey combination are 70-21-30% at Belmont. There is nothing in his works that stand out. Chad Brown’s 4-race form cycle is 29% 27% 38% 20%. A key horse bet.

Results:

Parx Race 3 # 1 Party Pants 12/1 Juan Guerrero a Lay 1 Route 53-18-33%
Morning line of 12/1 and went off at 9/2 and placed.  Then was DQ from the exacta.  Second favorite came in at 3/1 in a six horse field.

Parx Race 10 # 3 In the Script 8/1 Michael Pino Claim 1 Sprint with stats of 126-26-20%.  Bet down to 3/1 and he ran out of the exacta.  The sixth favorite came in at 13/1 in a nine horse field.

Gulfstream Park Race 7 # 3 Lady Magica 7/2 a Gilberto Zerpa Debut 2 Sprint 14-5-35%.  Won at 4/5 and paid $3.80.  The second favorite came in the exacta at 9/5.  The exacta paid $7 in a nine horse field.  His Morning Line odds were 7/2.  The players bet Lady Magica down eleven odds levels.  I passed.

Belmont Race 10 # 6 Teachable Moment 7/2 A Chad Brown Debut 3 Sprint with stats of 91-35-38%. Ran out of the exacta at 2/1 and the second favorite came in at 2/1 in a nine horse field.



Ed Bain author of new exciting horse racing Novel
“Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines”

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