Sober Up Aqueduct Sober Up

Today, Saturday February 3 at Aqueduct has carded small fields. I have seen jockey’s make mistakes and the rail birds start yelling to the jockey, sober up jockey sober up.

The Aqueduct race card has four races with 6 horse fields, one race with 7 horse fields, two races with 8 horse fields and one with a 10 horse field.

Small fields produce low odds on the race favorite. As the field size gets smaller the favorite has more of a chance to hit the exacta and the exacta becomes unattractive to bet because of low payouts. Here are some stats on the favorite in each race. All stats are for the exacta.

Race 1
The # 2 horse odds are 1/1 David Donk Claim 1 Route 6-1-16% Donk/Caramouche-9-0. A 6 Horse Field.

Race 2
The # 2 horse odds are 7/5 Todd Pletcher Lay 1 Sprint with favorites at Aqueduct 11-5-45% Pletcher T Franco 26-8-31%. A 6 horse field.

Race 3
The # 5 horse odds are 9/5 David Cannnizo Won Last Race Favorite 9-6-44% Cannizo D/Rocco Joe Jr. Zero races at Aqueduct. A 6 horse field.

Race 4
The # 5 horse odds are 3/1 Wesley Ward Lay 1sprint Aqueduct 10-4-40% Ward/Davis D. Zero Races at Aqueduct. An 8 horse field.

Race 5
The # 1 horse odds are 8/5 Philip Serpe Lay 1 sprint 14-4-28% Serpe/Franco M 7-0. A 7 horse field.

The # 1A horse odds are 8/5 Philip Serpe Debut 1 Sprint 14-1-7%Serpe/Lezcano A., 3-0. A 7 horse field.

Race 6
The # 2 horse odds are 9/5 Jason Service Lay 2 Route Aqu. 17-5-29% Service/McCarthy zero Races at Aqu. An 8 horse field.

Race 7
The # 6 horse odds are 5/2 Rudy Rodriguez Claim 1 Sprint Favorite at Aqu. 26-17-65% Rodriguez/Caramouche K. Zero Races at Aqu. An 8 horse field.

Race 8
The # 4 horse odds are 8/5 Kiaran McLaughlin Lay 1 Route Favorite Aqu. 9-4-44% McLaughlin/Bravo Joe zero races at Aqu. A 6 horse field

Race 9
The # 3 horse odds are 3/1 Linda Rice Lay 1 Sprint favorites at Aqu. 23-12-53% Rice/Alvarado J. 9-4-44%, a 10 horse field.

Aqueduct sends 57 runners to the races on a Saturday. That is a mistake. I have to react like a rail bird and yell out. Sober up Aqueduct Sober up.

I do have a bet at Santa Anita in Race 9, the # 11 horse Bowie.

This is a Down the Hill 6 ½ Furlongs Turf event. Richard Mandella has a Lay 1 Sprint down the hill of 34-15-44%.

Richard Mandella’s Detail Page (courtesy of edbain.com’s on line racing stats) for 1st after a Layoff in a Sprint Race on Santa Anita’s Down Hill Turf.

Mandella has his go to jockey up, Flavien Prat.  Together they have sent 49 runners down the hill, hit 16 exactas for a 32% strike rate.

The horse has 2 starts the first on the dirt he came in 9th out of ten runners. His second start was on the turf and he came in second out of 13 runners in the race.

Mandella layed Bowie off and entered him into today’s race, an allowance optional claim. I also think Mandella will not risk putting him up to be claimed. I think Mandella is going for the win in an easier spot. The horse has excellent pedigree; Malibu Moon and Unbridled’s song. I hit Mandella and Prat a couple of Saturdays ago down the hill.

Results:
We should congradulate the Aqueduct Morning Line Maker.  He had 4 wins, 2 places, one scratch, and 2 ran out.  It looked like a formful day for the favorite and that is the reason I passed all races at Aqueduct.

Santa Anita, Race 9, the 11 Bowie won and paid $8 to win.  The Exacta paid $106.60.  The fifth favorite came in at 12/1.

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Santa Anita Race 7

#9 is a Philip D’ Amato Debut 1 Sprint going down the hill. D’ Amato has started 133 debut 1 sprinter’s and he hit the exacta with 42 for a 31% exacta rate.

Copy of edbain.com online racing stats

These are really good numbers. This Race is a down the hill sprint turf race in a Maiden Special Weights. D’ Amato has started 13 runners on debut 1 sprint down the hill and hit the exacta with 6 for a 45% hit rate. 11 were Maiden Special weight races and he hit 5 for a 45% exacta rate down the hill.

Copy of Trainer D’Amato’s Detail Page for his Debut 1 Sprint Races Downhill Turf

Joe Talamo is in the irons. He has started 186 races with D’ Amato and hit the exacta with 65 for a 34% cash rate.  24 have been down the hill 8 hit a 33% exacta hit rate.

Copy of Jockey Joe Talamo’s Detail Page from edbain.com online racing stats

Joe Talamo is a very good jockey. He has hit the exacta with 101 different trainers. Talamo is one of those jockeys’ that makes me wonder why he is not known as a top jockey. Overall he has 1,432 races and hit the exacta 442 times for a 31% exacta rate. Talamo hits with 12 trainers that he rides for with a plus 30% exacta rate. He is one of the Southern California jockey’s that I look for when I have a bet to add him into an exacta or single him as key horse bet. At Santa Anita Talamo has 3 trainers that produce a total of 127 exactas; Ron Ellis 98-35-36%, John Sadler 75-28-37% and today’s trainer Phillip D’ Amato.

Talamo has not had that big horse that elevates his name and highlights his abilities and moves him into the top 5 jockey’s in the country however, Talamo numbers are not eye opening, just a constant 30% exacta rate. I believe he is a top jockey and that is good enough for me.

Does any one have The Racing Form? Can supply me with the Tomlinson numbers for Distance and Turf for More Than Ready and Empire Maker.
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A couple of Bets on Saturday

Every bet I make involves a 4 race form cycle. At Aqueduct Race 7 the # 1a Speke has a Morning Line of 7/2. Todd Pletcher has a Debut 1 Sprint stat of 314-84-26% to win. Pletcher moves up to 34% on Debut 2 Sprint, 34% for Debut 3 Sprint and then the form cycle dives on Debut 4 Sprint 9%.

Pletcher’s stats at Aqueduct for Debut 1 Sprint are 34-12-35% to win. 29 of these races were Maiden Special Weights. At Aqueduct, he won with 12 for a 41% win rate.


Manuel Franco and Todd Pletcher went to post 169 races and won on 32 for a 18% win rate. At Aqueduct these two are 110-22-20%.

In Maiden Special Weights these two are 9-1-11% at the Big A. That MSW stat is the reason I will bet cautiously. If his odds drop to 5/2 or lower I will pass the bet.


Santa Anita Race 8 the # 6 Rye has a morning line of 3/1. William Morey has a Lay 1 Route stat with This Owner of 13-5-38% win rate. The owner is Joseph P. Morey Revocable Trust. Over all on Lay 1 Route Morey is 42-10-23%.

Kent Desormeaux is switching from Frank Alvarado. The horse is a shipper and on the turf. Rye loves to win 15-7-46% win rate. Desormeaux and Morey are 20-8 40% win rate. On the turf Desormeaux and Morey are 6-4-66% If Morey gets bet to 8/5 I will pass the bet.  

Results: The Aqueduct Race missed. Santa Anita, the 8 Rye hit and paid $6.00, $3.60, $2.80. The $2 Exacta paid $23.60. His morning line was 3/1. He went off at 2/1.
______________________
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Ed just completed Jockey Trainer Reports for Tampa Jockey-Trainer TAM , for Laurel Park Jockey- Trainer LRL ,  for Gulfstream Park  Jockey-Trainer GP , and for Parx Jockey-Trainer PARX .

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What they are saying about Ed Bain’s new Horse Racing Novel
Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines

Jack Gresser reviewed Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines — 5 star December 4 at 7:54pm ·

Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines is a fascinating and moving story of a true horse player and innovator in the world of Thoroughbred handicapping. The story flows effortlessly with a simple and concise style that makes the reader want to keep reading. For both the horse racing enthusiast and the non-horse player, this book is a must read that dives deep into core human emotions… everything from loneliness to self-doubt to finding your passion. As a youth, Ed found a “friend”, in the form of a library and found his passion as an adult in the form of horse racing.

Ed’s horse racing passion is handicapping. I first heard of Ed from the Daily Racing form Expo in 2004 and was immediately drawn into trainer statistics as a method of creating a system of focus and discipline in approaching the races as an investment, not a gamble. Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines delves into the passion of discovery of the system, or innovation if you will. Most innovators and entrepreneurs will tell you that they need a rival to drive them. Ed talks about his rival is the “average good handicapper”. To defeat his rival, Ed found his edge in the countless hours of analyzing past performance data, which can be a lonely and difficult endeavor.

Ironically Ed’s ability to independently focus as an adult likely was the result of some of the pain he had has a youth and the hours alone in his sanctuary, the library. In reading this story, I reflected back on my own life and I not only learned about Ed, but I also learned something about myself. Thank you Ed, for a wonderful story and a true, thought provoking experience.
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Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines 

I have just finished Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines by Ed Bain, and this was my second time through the book since I recently acquired it. The first time proved an enjoyable journey through a “stream-of-consciousness” narrative that I couldn’t put down—good story and addictive personal story-telling. The author states in the front matter that this is a work of “fiction.” Well, maybe. But all good fiction draws from life, and my wager is that this fiction is close to Ed’s real deal, and so much the better. Great stuff!

I knew as I read that a lot of interesting handicapping information was flowing by like a river—thus the immediate “second reading.” I took a yellow highlighter and had a grand time. Anyone who loves racing, handicapping, or an angle on how to “do well” NEEDS to read this book. Ed is kind enough to give us a great story, AND the insider information on his system…one that uses his specific talents and genius to grand effect. This book belongs in any library of racing and wagering, and be sure to read it at least TWICE! Looking forward to ordering/subscribing to and reading his other offerings, especially those that pertain to Southern California. Thanks for sharing your story and your talents, Ed!

Bill Mentes Best book I’ve read since “Kinky Handicapping!” September 13 at 1:20pm

Donald Altemose an orderly and eclectic look at life and horse racing. Recommend highly October 21 at 3:31am

Saari Sedillo reviewed Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines — 5 star October 20 at 9:44am ·
Very compelling book I couldn’t put it down I read the entire book in 2 days

Mark Cramer I hope this book circulates beyond the usual hard-core horseplayers because it contains many hard-learned lessons from an incredibly fractured childhood and adolescence, a troubled but regenerating tour in the marines, and the ghosts of the past that haunt him as he tries to reconstruct his adult life, relying on numbers and facts to ward off the irrational life that envelopes him. October 21 at 5:44am

Charles Bedard · Very readable book. Finished it quickly and enjoyed it immensely. · October 23 at 6:06pm


Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines is a revealing and engaging story about the human condition and the enormous discipline and psychological stamina required to even consider the possibility of winning at the races. Mark Cramer Author

Many successful gamblers come from diverse backgrounds with unique upbringings.  Ed’s triumphant career as a professional player is no exception.

Book Store

_________________

The hardships and growing pains that every player faces as a fledgling racing aficionado affect us all. However, it’s the school of hard knocks, bad beats and harsh realities of the game learned early on that often lay the foundation for successful play later. Some adjust but most don’t. Ed is one of those rare exceptions. His methodical and statistical approach to betting goes against the grain of every racing text book and supposed expert’s philosophy in the field. His meticulous approach to betting and life in general makes this work a must-read for any diehard handicapper still on the racing journey or any new punter looking to place his first $2 bet.”  –Dean Keppler Former Director of DRF Press for Daily Racing Form and author of Betting the Kentucky Derby and Trainer Angles.


Read Ed Bain’s new Novel Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines? Post a review on Facebook: Review Ed Bain’s New Novel Here

Emotion

As a horseplayer I never really address losing bets. I only talk about how I select key horses to bet and score. However, through record keeping by recording my winning and losing bets as well as the stat that was the reason why I made the bet is the way I became a successful horseplayer.

I have a 25% cash rate. I average 4 bets a day, hit 1 and make a living.

The problem is accepting averages which is a middle number from a list of numbers added together to strike an average. Averages give me the tendency of my selection. The reality of betting into a percentage is much more difficult to understand than you would think. 1 win from 4 bets I would say is an approach I could bet every day and go home happy. The problem with averages is that it is not the way I score. If in fact I hit 1 from every 4 bets instead of averaging 1 hit from every 4 bets I made there would be no emotional response to my losing selection. This is the difference between the average of betting and winning and betting and losing.


When I first used record keeping as a tool I recorded each bet. I did not really know what I was supposed to figure out from my betting records. I did like most players would do, concentrate on the bets I cashed on and I ignored the losing ones. Handling the emotions of a losing streak is part of betting for a living. Hitting 1 from every 4 bets includes a series of never ending losing streaks and a constant awareness of my emotions.

I recorded each bet by month which limited my expectations for a 25% hit rate because I always felt next month could be an improvement from last month. I could also see all the bets I cashed on in one spread sheet. At first I did not realize that record keeping is about the losing bets and not the winning bets. The losing bets are where the improvement of my playing came from.

After my second year of betting for a living I transferred each month onto one spread sheet to view all my selections for the year and how I won and lost. It was an eye opener. I had made 1,000 bets, averaging 83 a month, 4.15 bets per day. I had 240 bets that I cashed on that second year and I wanted to congratulate myself on being a successful horse player from those 240 wins.

I turned off the lights, got a bottle of coke and hit the page down button on my computer key pad 14 times. On each page I could see the big bets I cashed. I noted the smaller 7 horse field exactas that I cashed on prevented the losing side of betting from overwhelming me and these hits kept my emotions in check.

I sat there smiling. I had done it. I can make a living betting on the horses. I would never have to go to another job interview and go to work for some company ever again. What a feeling.

I paged up to find big hits and hits that I needed timing wise that would end a losing streak. It was fun. These 240 hits were personally rewarding. At times I sat in my office chair and my legs would go straight out and I would get an emotional response to what I have accomplished. 14 pages of big wins, great memories and a feeling of triumph.

I hit page down to see all the bets I had lost. I kept hitting the down arrow over and over. 22 pages produced 760 losing bets, an accepted compromise of losing to get 14 pages with 240 wins. I knew these 22 pages are where I had to study. Learning how I lose is as important as finding out how I win. The reason is emotions; how to handle my anger or disappointment when I lost and particularly the close calls that I bet and lost on. I sorted again to find out how.

My longest winning streak was 6 in a row. This took 2 days 5 exactas and 1 trifecta. My longest losing streak was 32 in a row. This took 8 days, almost 2 straight weeks of losing. I had kept betting at the same size, always aware of any change I made which I did not.

I averaged 1 to 2 hits a day 12 days a month. I have 8 days a month where I have no hits and I still maintain a 25% cash rate. Every week I produce either a 10 or a 12 race losing streak from 21 bets a week. That is every week. My worst month I lost 75 from 83 bets, 8 winners and I had a hit rate of 9%. I was down over half of my betting bank. My best month was 29 wins from 85 bets for a 34% hit rate. I tripled my racing bank.

I knew that this is probably the best I could do betting for a living and that the payouts would vary. The question is could I get these numbers month after month year after year. The size of my hits I would cash on would vary. If I could control my emotions and not let that loss rate scare me into betting favorites to produce a hit to end a bad run of losing bets I knew I could bet like this for years.

If you know where you lose, then you can figure out how to win.
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New Book Reviews for Ed’s book Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines:

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Jockey Switch


The jockey switch is one of the most ignored trainer moves in all of sports. I can’t imagine Baseball, Football, Hockey or Basketball not going over personal switches and comparing each players statistics and questioning Why did management change players. The only sport that does not discuss personal moves is Horse Racing. The fun of handicapping is the people in racing, the Jockeys and Trainers. I have been calculating statistics for over 25 years. I have detailed stats on all of them and I feel as if I know all of the jockeys and trainers personally even though I view them only thru a betting statistic.

The jockey switch was first really explained well by Mark Cramer when he explained the Class drop Jockey shift. Mark tried to tell us that a switch to a higher percentage jockey and dropping in class is a significant factor as a bet and Mark was correct. Here are the jockey switches today at Santa Anita.

Race 1
# 1 Trainer P. D’Amato switched to Joe Talamo who is 65-31-48% in the exacta from Tyler Baze who is 38-12-36% in the exacta. A switch from a go-to jockey from a go-to jockey.

# 6 Trainer Richard Mandella has a go-to jock on this first time starter with Mike Smith 30-12-40% in the exacta. The problem is Mandella on Debut 1 in a Route race at Santa Anita is 16-0, no hits in the exacta.

Race 2
# 2 Trainer Jeff Mullins switched from Cory Nakatani who is 3-2-66% to Tyler Base who is 138-40-29%,  At 7/5 odds, this is a no play for me.

# 4 Trainer Mathew Chew switched from E. Roman who has 0 races to Tiago Pereira who is 12-6-50% in the exacta. At 5/2 he could be a play however, I like big stats, with a lot of tries and wins so I’ll pass the race.

Race 3
# 5 Trainer Bob Baffert has three runners in the race. Baffert at one time supplied jockey Martin Garcia with a ten year supply of hits in one year. Martin Garcia had 270-110-41% in the exacta at Santa Anita. Baffert has Victor Espinoza on his runner today and they are 29-12-41% in the exacta.

Race 4
# 2 Trainer Peter Miller switched from Victor Espinoza 58-26-45% to Flavien Pratt 13-4-31%. What will prevent me from betting is only 13 starts.

# 7 William Spawr switched from Tyler Baze who is 23-11-48% in the exacta to Mike Smith who is 14-4-29% which will prevent me from betting for the same reason as Peter Miller.

Race 5
# 3 Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer switched from Drayden Van Dyke who is 29-3-10% to E. Roman who is 14-7-50% in the Exacta. He cashed 7 with Roman and 3 with Van Dyke.  I need more stats before I make a bet.

# 6 Trainer Kristin Mulhall switched from Tyler Baze who is 22-3-14% to Martin Pedroza who is 52-20-38% in the exacta, a go-to jockey switch however the horse has nocks against it as a play.

Race 6
# 1 Trainer Peter Miller switches from Tyler Baze who is 88-42-48% in the exacta to Flavien Pratt who is 33-15-45%. A go-to to go-to.

# 7 Trainer Bob Baffert switched from Rafael Bejarano who is 91-34-37% in the exacta stats in sprints to Drayden Van Dyke who is 5-1-20%,

# 10 Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer switched from Joe Talamo who is 11-6-55% to Rafael Bejarano who is 138-68-49%. In this race Rafael ended up on trainer Hollendorfer horse instead of Baffert’s.

Race 7
Has no significant jockey switches.

Race 8
# 7 Trainer John Sadler switched from Victor Espinoza whose exacta route stats are 107-41-38% to Flavien Plat who is 6-2-33% in the exacta.

# 8 Trainer Doug O’Neill switched from Mario Gutierrez who is 225-67-30% to Rafael Bejarano who is 101-35-35%. A go-to to a go-to jock.

Race 9
# 1 Trainer Richard Mandella switched from Joe Talamo who is 19-6-30% to Flavien Prat who is 95-36-38% in sprint exacta stats, his go-to jockey.

# 8 Trainer John Sadler switched from Flavien Prat who is 6-4-67% to Tyler Baze who is 57-22-39%, and one of his go-to jockeys.

#9 Trainer Mark Glatt switched from Tyler Baze who is 52-18-35% to Kent Desormeaux who is 9-2-22% in the exacta.

I will take Race 9 # 8 John Sadler switching from Flavien Prat to Tyler Baze 57-22-39% in the exacta.
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Down the Hill

Santa Anita has the best sprint race in America, 6 ½ furlongs down the hill on the turf. Most days the track cards one or two races down the hill. There is no group think with the jockey’s where they all wait for the turn and run to the lead. It is all out from gate to wire fractions that make me laugh because they are so fast. Visually the race is easy to see how they string out and then seem to gather at the part of the track that crosses over from turf to dirt and back to turf and the chaos it seems to create. Then the closers add more drama into basically the most exciting race to be involved in with a bet.

To me Santa Anita’s 6 ½ furlong down the hill on the turf is a jockey’s race. I have Jockey exacta stats on the 6 ½ furlong Down the Hill Turf Sprint Races. My play is Santa Anita’s Race 9 is the #9, Flavian Pratt and Richard Mandella Down the Hill.

Santa Anita Race 9 Jockey Exacta stats down the hill

#1 Frey M.           23-4-17%
#2 Quinonez A.   50-16-%
#3 Elliott S.          86-12-13%
#4 Gutierez M.    130-33-25%
#5 Roman E.       No Stats
#6 Talamo J.       230-40-17%
#7 Nakatani C.    95-20-18%
#8 Bejarano R.    221-92-42%
#9 Prat F.            238-75-31%
#10 Espinoza V. 104-22-21%
#11 Pena B.        34-0-0%
#12 Baze T.         291-83-28%
#13 Roman E.     No Stats
#14 Smith M.       78-30-38%

My key horse with Flavian Prat and Richard Mandella placed and the favorite came in first.  Prat and Mandella keyed an exacta that paid $43.80.

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Reply to Alyosha’s Post

I replied to Alyosha’s post on the previous blog post here Ed Bain’s Work Sheet  (where you can also see Alyosha’s questions) however to be able to add links and/or illustrations for some of these explanations I had to make this a blog post.  This post also includes my play at Santa Anita today. Let em roll at the 1/4 poll……. Ed

I think you made a good choice Alyosha in ordering the stats.  All that experience that you’ve had betting will come in to play particularly in the 4-race form cycle.  Both of those guys you mentioned Ken Massa and Ron Cox offer good products.  Discipline is hard to understand in racing because of the emotions that all players run through during a race.  You know you’ve found discipline when you don’t have a bet and everyone else is excited but you. You can bet or pass and it’s the passing that creates discipline.

1). Do the stats include all wet days?
Yes

2) Do you treat a wet day like a dry one and play regardless?

I don’t buy the form so I don’t get the current Tomlinson’s however, I have an old Tomlinson book that still has many of the sires still dropping foals so I do use Tomlinson to help me some what.  In my stats, all the stats are combined, off track, wet track, turf track, fast track and when you click on the Layoff, Claim, Debut and Won Last race you can view statistics on how many races he had on the turf and what his numbers are.

I do have a good understanding of off track pedigree, but by nature I am very cautious about betting into pedigree that I don’t know is good on an off track.  So I do end up passing many bets that are on wet or muddy tracks and when I do, many still hit the exacta. Just because I pass does not mean they won’t win. When I do have the Tomlinsons I look for a 400 number.  So I demand a very high hit rate from the Tomlinson and I demand the same thing from my statistics.  400 Tomlinsons, 40% in the exacta.

3) Is it possible to recover prior days of PP in order to research. I believe I can copy and paste the link into an email to myself, but only track by track, so a long process. Any other way?

My database makes over a million calculations daily so yesterday’s races are in today’s stats.  Also there’s nothing wrong with tedious work in racing.  This is how I ended up designing and playing the 4 race form cycle through trial and error.  That is the scientific way.

The only other way is through my database which I do offer on a monthly subscription. Data Export Tool

4). Bigger question: I will try to lay out the method as I understand it thusfar and ask for feedback.
JT stats in the book I’ve ordered are for NY and SCal circuits, so it would seem that the focus would be there. The PP stats have jockey with trainer stats, which will sometimes be 4+30, but they don’t show you who is the trainer’s go to rider. So in order to find a key horse, I would begin? 1) by looking at the Non Fav trainer possibilities for the day–and focus on the NY and Scal circuits first. Then 2) look at the JT stats to narrow down by eliminating combos that are not using one of the preferred riders. 3) Now look at the more detailed stats–eg at that track. 4)Pay close attention to where in the cycle the trainer is and see if this is his preferred moment–eg a spike.

The Jockey-Trainer Exacta Report is absolutely crucial to betting.  I’m amazed that there are no Jockey-Trainer reports offered.  It’s almost like they’re invisible.  Any player who uses this report will become a better player that day.  I would encourage everyone to use this and use it first in order.  The next series of questions you’re asking is actually how I handicap and the best answer I can give you is in this blog article

https://anyhorseplayersoutthere.com/12000-who-win-23000-who-lose/

The reason is, it’s how I start.  And I start with pen and paper.  I make out a 3 deep grid of what the favorites number is in every race and his odds and that sets up the day to start handicapping. This gives me a visual.  What I’m looking for is 3/1 Morning Line favorite.  It’s the only favorite I place as a key bet.

The second bet in that article is actually 3/1, non-favorite and these two plays are my favorite plays to make.  I usually get one or two bets per day at 3/1.  I would follow that article and I would use these plays.  I would adopt the 3/1 favorite and the non-favorite as the first thing you look for in statistics.  This will give you plays to look for.  This is the advantage of statistics.  You can find the same plays to bet over and over.  However you have to start at the beginning which is with pen and paper and laying out that grid.

It’s very important for you to have a starting point.  All players I know open to Race 1, horse 1 and handicap horse by horse, race by race and hope they see something along the way.  That is what makes horse racing tedious.  When you’re handicapping for a play, something you know has a hit rate, in this case 3/1 for me is 25%, I cash 1 out of every 4.  When you’re handicapping a go-to play like 3/1, the only thing tedious is waiting for the race to come up and being patient.  This 3/1 is triggered by a Jockey-Trainer combination.  Does he have a go-to jockey on him.  The Jockey-Trainer stats could be played as an approach by themselves.

I have one 3/1 Morning Line play today.  It’s at Santa Anita in Race 3, the 4 horse Pundy.  It’s a Irad Ortiz Jr and Peter Miller.  Irad Ortiz has zero races in sprints at Santa Anita with Peter Miller.  Irad is replacing Flavien Prat.  Flavien is one of Peter Miller’s go-to jockeys 33-15-45% in sprints at Santa Anita in the Exacta.  Miller on 2nd after a Layoff in a sprint at Santa Anita on his favorites is 11-9-81%.  Irad Ortiz zero percent.  I would have made this play if Flavien Prat was up.  He is a very good jockey, under rated jockey. I’m sure he hated giving up that 3/1 morning line favorite to Irad Ortiz.  Moving to one of the top 5 jockey’s in the Country, Irad Ortiz is not a bad jockey switch either.

5). How you find horses that are not 4+30 to include in the exacta is one of my questions.

That is a good question.  Just as I mention above, you have to have a starting point.  The race can’t run until all the horses are loaded in the gate and it’s the same with handicapping.  I start with pen and paper, I have a work sheet and I make a copy of the entries program.  Even though I have an elaborate website that tells me everything that I want to know, what I like to do is layer it in by hand.  First the grid, then I enter all the jockey-trainer combinations on top of the Jockey’s name.  There is no bet that I make that does not have a go-to jockey on him other than a shipper like Irad Ortiz.  Once I have who the real players are for me then I go to my stats.  I click on the appropriate stat, the detail page comes up and on the left side of this page has all the details on how this trainer performed by track, class, distance, surface and field size.  What I am looking for in the stats is I immediately click on today’s track, Santa Anita and see how all this trainers races separate.  As an example like Peter Miller on Lay 2 Sprint favorites and I write down these stats like this L2S SA Fav 11-9-81% on top of the trainers name.  It would be easier if I just would roll through my website, pick a horse here and there to play and hope for the best but what it really takes is hard work.  It may be mental and it may be slow and tedious.  I must like mental, slow tedious work.  It’s what makes us a grinder.

6). Finally, other than NY and SCal tracks, we have a wealth of data but not the JT stats. Should we play very selectively demanding more from the stats—eg, start with non Fav list, then focus on the jockey trainer stat in the PP and spikes?

What sets up my handicapping for statistics is a 40% exacta rate.  That is extremely high.  So it gets you to stats that are playable and that you’re betting into a trainer who has his go-to rider on him.  It’s the absolute key to being selective.  You will only want to bet races that have a 40% exacta rate.  So yes, you need to be highly selective.  You have the experience and you also understand how to handle selectivity.

Pattern playing the 4-race form cycle is an untapped statistical resource.  Spike plays, either or plays, I play patterns of all types in this 4-race form cycle.  As a player you’ll see some immediately.  Some will look easy to play and some races there will be nothing there in the patterns.  Pattern playing is a visual approach.  I use it all the time for fillers in the Exacta.  Once I have a key horse, I separate my playing by patterns.  First Layoffs, Claims, Debuts, Won Last Race.  Pattern playing reminds me of Star Trek opening statement “Where no man has gone before”.  The 4-race form cycle forces you to look at cycles and you will see good jockey-trainer stats on bad cycles or just the opposite.

I can produce any jockey-trainer report for every track.  It’s the same price.  It will take me a couple of weeks to get it done but if you need one just tell me.

Jockey-Trainer Exacta Report

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Ed Bain’s Handicapping Work Sheet

After I posted Ed’s Work Sheet I decided to take this picture of Ed’s Brain.  Wasn’t surprised to see this.  Makes a lot of sense.

From Susan:
Just wanted to share this.
When Ed’s talking about handicapping he thinks everyone knows what he’s talking about when this is actually what he is talking about

Ed Bains Worksheet when he Handicaps the Races

4 Race Form Cycle

I track the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th race after a Layoff, Claim, Debut and Won last Race. Every bet I make is from these 4 races. The last bet I made with speed was in 1992.

When a trainer lays a horse off and returns him to the track, most want to schedule races every 14 to 21 days.  A 4 race cycle takes around 2 to 3 months when things are going good.

There are 86 entries on Saturday at Aqueduct.

edbain.com
List of 86 entries at Aqueduct for Saturday 12/16/17 Courtesy of edbain.com

25 are moving through the Layoff 4 race form cycle which is 29% of all runners.

22 are moving through the Debut 4 race form cycle.
There are two Maiden races.

17 are in the Won Last Race form cycle.

17 are traveling through the Claim 4 race form cycle.

There were 25 Layoff stats at Aqueduct. These produced a spike play in Race 5 where the number 4 horse, trained by Abigail Adsit is on 1st after a layoff in a sprint race is  6%,  31%, 0% 0% and in today’s race she is on a 2nd after a layoff in a sprint where Abigail is 19-6-31%. Her horse’s Morning Line (M/L) is 15/1 and my stats show she is all or nothing. All 6 from the 19 tries were wins.

There are 22 Debut horses moving through their 4 race form cycle. In Race 6 the number 13 horse is a Linda Rice trained horse. Rice’s Debut percentages of 13% 34% 28% and 29%. Her Debut 2 Sprint numbers at Aqueduct are 84-29 35%. Her horse’s M/L is 8/1.

17 Won their Last Race. In Aqueduct race 8 the number 5 horse is trained by Ollie Figgins III. His percentages on Won Last Race are 139-28-20%. He is 21-2-9% in stakes races, 0 for 5 at six furlongs and no stakes wins outside of Charlestown. Ollie is a Charlestown trainer. His horse’s M/L is 8/5.

There are 17 Claim Stats.  In Aqueduct Race 9 the number 1 horses trainer is Rudy Rodriguez who has a Claim 1 Route stat that is in his 4 race form cycle. His numbers are 25%, 15%, 23%, and claim 4 is 24%. His stats on Claim 1 Route are 92-23-25% at Aqueduct. Rudy Rod has claimed 46 horses at Aqueduct which is half of the horses he claimed.  He is an Aqueduct claiming trainer. His M/L is 6/1.

_______

Results From the 4 plays today,

Linda Race in Race 6 scratched her horse.

In Race 4 Abigail Adsit hit her spike play, 2nd after a layoff in a sprint, paid $14.40 to win, and $2 exacta paid $61.00.

In Race 8, the 5 horse Oillie Figgins horse from Charlestown ran out.

Race 9, the 1 horse A Rudy Rodriguez Claim 1 Route at Aqueduct won and paid $8.00 to win and $2 exacta paid $95.50.

12,000 Who Win 23,000 Who Lose

I know three things that will happen in my life; death, taxes and a favorite in every race.

There are around 35,000 races carded in the U. S. each year and there was a favorite in every one of them. Around 30% will be favorites that will hit for the grandstand the railbirds and all us exacta players.

Around 12,000 who were favorites will win and around 23,000 who were favorites will lose. 30% is 5/2 odds and pays $7. The favorite has an actual payout of $4.80 that is actual odds of 7/5 that requires a 43% actual win rate. The favorite is an underlay.

As a player I know you can hit the favorite, cash and lose money as you are winning. Because I am betting against a very determined group of players who pound the exacta with the favorite in every race every day, month after month year after year, I know the favorite is going to get me in a bunch of races. I only need to cash on one out of every four instead of the crowd having to hit four out of ten that is required to hit the $4.80 payout to have a chance of knocking me out of an exacta. These chances are reduced because the favorite has an actual win rate of 30%.

If I bet this race I have to know if the favorite has to be part of my exacta. Can I can go with the favorite based on odds or against the favorite and accept the results.

Here is how I determine who is an actual favorite and who is not and who is a bettable favorite and who is not.  I handicap with pen, paper and the computer and I handicap two circuits New York and Southern California.

Los Alamitos Race Course is currently open. They replaced the 7 furlong bull ring track with a mile oval. Los Alamitos has only been racing on this mile oval track for a few months. Since my stats are to small to apply what I look for in 3/1 odds as the favorite, I wait until Santa Anita opens in a couple of weeks where the numbers swing my way for more bets on the 3/1 morning line (M/L) favorite.

There are smaller fields in Southern California so that has an impact on the line maker. He has to set lower and lower odds on the favorite to compensate for field size. However, Saturday normally has larger fields.

So today I’ll pass Southern California and just list On the paper Aqueduct, the Track, the race, the saddle cloth number of the favorite and the M/L

Aqueduct Saturday 12/9/2017

R 1 # 2- 1/1  GT      R 4 # 6-3/1         R 7 #10-5/2

R 2 # 9 -3/1             R 5 # 5-5/2         R 8 # 1-9/5

R 3 # 1-1A- 9/5       R 6 # 7- 8/5       R 9 # 13-2/1

Aqueducts list of ten favorites tell me there are three races the line maker believes the horse is superior to his opponents and three races are at an in between odds level 2/1 and 5/2. Two races have M/L odds of 3/1. That is about as high an odds a line maker is willing to give a favorite. Normally 3/1 is the third favorite making 3/1 a contender not a favorite.

I target 3/1 as a bet and this layout gives me a visual on how the odds are set for favorites on a race card. All I need is a jockey/ trainer statistic that will show me the correct race to bet a 3/1 M/L favorite. I know the three low priced favorites will not make it into any exacta bet because I can expect these three to drop three to five more odds levels by post time.

The bet is a key horse exacta based on the jockey trainer stats. It is the first bet I look for every day and is the most interesting to handicap. Most players go to the Racing Form and start handicapping Aqueduct race 1 horse 1. My race 1 is race 2 to look for first because the favorite has odds of 3/1. This is the way I set up a routine to find the same bet over and over. When I add in exacta betting statistics, the way to handicap changes. I take advantage of percentages, to know when to bet or when to pass. 3/1 Morning Line favorites offers cashing bets and hitting consistency. I have a 25% cash rate for this play.

After making the above list I open my track specific jockey-trainer exacta report separated by sprint and route and fill in the stats on each favorite at Aqueduct. I am looking for favorites that the trainer has his go to jockey on his horse. I can bet or pass if the trainer does not have his go to jockey on him. Beside the odds I write GT for Go To and an S if the trainer is switching to his go to jockey and that is the best 3/1 favorite to bet.

Aqueduct Races 2 and 4 have a 3/1 favorite.  In race 2 Joe Bravo is in the irons for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. In the past five years Rudy Rodriguez has not given Joe Bravo any sprinters at Aqueduct. Rudy Rod’s four go to jockeys at Aqueduct in exacta sprints are Irad Ortiz 234-119-51%, Jose Ortiz has 29-16-55%, Cornelio Velasquez 59-25-42% and Junior Alvarado 32-16-50%. I will pass race 2. Joe Bravo is a very good jockey and can still win though I’ll wait for Rudy Rodriguez and one of these 4 go to jockeys.

Joe Bravo has no sprint tries at AQU for trainer Rudy Rod
Ed Bain’s Jockey-Trainer Exacta report stats shows C Velazquez as one of trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s go-to jockeys

Race 4 Maiden Claim sprint has a 3/1 favorite at Aqueduct with jockey Kendrick Caramouche riding for trainer Jeremiah Englehart.  In sprint races Caramouche-Englehart have 28-6-21% exacta stats. Jeremiah Englehart’s go to jockeys are Angel Arroyo 21-9-43%, Jose Ortiz 47-19-40% and Irad Ortiz 18-8-42%. I will wait for one of these three go to jockeys to be on board to bet.

edbain.com Debut 1 Stats for Englehart at AQU in Sprints

Jeremiah Englehart horse is a Debut 1. For Englehart’s first time starter sprinters at Aqueduct he has a record of 16-1-8%. Another reason to pass even if he had his go-to jockey on him.

Today I will not have a bet on 3/1 M/L favorites. I would have to find bets that would go against the favorite. So I will be betting into those 23,000 favorites who lose and I will not be able to take advantage of those 12,000 who win. Maybe Sunday.