Saratoga the Graveyard of Favorites?

The best players in the country are now working on tomorrow’s races at Saratoga. Every year we hear about the graveyard of favorites at Saratoga. Is it true?

When we lived in Maryland Susan and I would go to Saratoga every year for her birthday and spend a week at the track. The weather during the summer at Saratoga is warm and muggy and it rained a lot causing small fields and small mutuels. So after the fourth year Susan chose to go to Laurel for her birthday.

Evaluating favorites is an act of experience. How do you bet the favorite and which ones can you pass? Over the last four years there were 1,632 favorites at Saratoga from 13,146 runners that went to post.  Of these 1,632 favorites 537 won for a 32% win rate. The average field size had 8.0 runners per race.

The term Odds On means a better than even chance to win. How many Odds on favorite horses won? I combined the five lowest odds levels that require a plus 50% win rate. Saratoga had 208 races with 118 wins for a 57% win rate. Averaging these five odds levels together says their win par needs to be 72%.

1/10  Odds  2-2-100% Win Rate    1/10 Odds 90%   Payout $2.20
1/5    Odds 15-12-80% Win Rate  1/5 Odds 83%      Payout $2.40
2/5    Odds 21-9-43%   Win Rate  2/5 Odds 71%     Payout $2.80
3/5   Odds  76-43-56% Win Rate   3/5 Odds 63%     Payout $3.20
4/5   Odds  94-52-55% Win Rate   4/5 Odds 56%     Payout $3.60

2/5 and 3/5 may be part of the reason for the graveyard of favorites expression, par is 71% and 63%.

The handicappers at Saratoga are sharpening their speed figures. At even money they are 4 Points over par, an overlay.

1/1 Odds went 90- 49-54% Win Rate    1/1 Odds 50%    Payout $ 4.00

The odds level 6/5 contributes to the legend with a 37% win rate versus par of 45%.

6/5 Odds 98– 36-37% Win Rate    6/5 Odds 45%   Payout $4.40

The players make a big move with 7/5 which has a 49% win rate. 7/5 needs a 42% win rate for par. The players won at an almost even money hit rate. 7/5 has a $4.80 win mutuel, a big overlay at Saratoga.

7/5 Odds 134-65-49% Win Rate    7/5 Odds 42%   Payout $4.80

The crowd is above par on 3/2. 40% is par and the favorite hit at 42%. 3/2 is a statistical overlay. So far I think the players know what they are doing with odds.

3/2 Odds 77 –32 – 42% Win Rate   3/2 Odds 40%   Payout $5.00

The next odds level, 8/5 is 2 points under par.

8/5 Odds 175-63 -36% Win Rate    8/5 Odds 38%   Payout $ 5.20

9/5 adds to the graveyard of favorites narrative 9/5 favorites are 8 points below par.

9/5 Odds 147 -41- 28% Win Rate   9/5 Odds 36%   Payout $5.60

The last five favorite odds levels feed the graveyard narrative.

2/1 Odds 345 -78-23% Win Rate  2/1 Odds 33%   Payout $6.00
5/2 Odds 577-138-24% Win Rate  5/2 Odds 29%  Payout $ 7.00
3/1 Odds 98  – 19-19% Win Rate     3/1 Odds 25%    Payout $8.00
7/2 Odds 15 – 4-15% Win Rate       7/2 Odds 22%   Payout $9.00
4/1 Odds 14   -5- 36% Win Rate     4/1 Odds 20%   Payout $10.00

The statistics on odds and percentages tells us what favorites to add into an exacta bet. All favorites are not the favorite. I look at odds in segments. Odds on favorites and even money is the first segment. I never make the favorite my key horse at this odds level however, I do like to have a 1/1 even money favorite as one of my three fillers in the exacta. I know that even money will win half their races. If I have the 3rd favorite as my key horse at 3/1, I do not argue with myself about including the favorite in my bet as he is going to win half his races so I accept that. It makes for a great bet and an opportunity to hit an exacta that produces a $15 to $19 dollar exacta payout.  My exacta key bet is one with three horses and then the same three with one. Even money favorites are going to lose half of their races as well and this can produce exactas from $30 to $90. I take the payout no matter what the odds are because it is a good bet. I have a chance at a really good sized exacta or a predictable low paying exacta. If I hit the exacta it is an overlay.

The second segment is 3/2-7/5. 6/5 favorites are also good to include as a filler. Two out three of these odds are overlays. 7/5 is an odds level. I have always thought when 7/5 was on the tote board that the horse is really the favorite.

The third segment is 8/5 to 4/1, a total of seven odds levels. I never fear I will get beat by the favorite. I know the percentages are against them. I combined these seven odds levels and 1,371 favorites went to post at Saratoga over the last four years and 348 went on to win, a one out of four win clip. These seven odds levels favorites lost 1,023 races.

The real handicapping is on these seven odds levels on the favorite. These are easy to go against.  It’s the bet of 1 with 3 and 3 with 1 I am trying to cash.

Any stat that can win half their races has to be included. 50% is a magical statistic to me because my selections start at 40% in the exacta. I prefer 50% exacta stats to bet with. A favorite at even money has to be included as a filler because they win every other race.

There is a favorite in every race and overall they win at a 32% win rate. For every 100 races the favorite will win 32 and lose 68. The Saratoga handicappers are very good and from their experience they know when to bet and when to pass and let the crowd over bet the favorite. I choose to bet with them when they are overlays and against them when they are an underlay.

I do not think that Saratoga is the graveyard of favorites. Even money and 7/5 are overlays as is 3/2. Many of the odds levels are a point or two from par. Sometimes we have to look at odds from what we know. Comparing the percentages of wins to the pars is how I determine a lot of plays. Odds On horses are supposed to win so we have to bet them. The payouts are low even when my stats say their hit rate backs them up as a legitimate favorite.

The Graveyard of Favorites may be in the Odds On category of players over betting stakes runners. Odds On has all the hype influencing the betters as a can’t miss, mortal lock bet. This may be part of the myth of the Graveyard of Favorites. This is a play I like to take advantage of. Maybe I should name this play the Saratoga Graveyard of favorites play.

Here’s a link to the Odds % Payout Table   Odds % Payout Table

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How Do The Bettors Bet at Del Mar

Del Mar Race Track

16,192 runners went to post at Del Mar over the past 4 years and we placed bets on every one of them. 1,909 won for a 12% win rate. I can see how the crowd bet by odds over the past four years at Del Mar.

Here is how the horse players won and cashed starting at even money 1/1.

1/1 odds 138 – 68-49% win rate       1/1 percentage 50%

6/5 odds 177 –  58-33% win rate       6/5 percentage 45%

7/5 odds  81  –  18-22% win rate       7/5 percentage 42%

3/2 odds 183 – 64-35% win rate       3/2 percentage 40%

8/5 odds 206 – 73-35% win rate        8/5 percentage 38%

9/5 odds 205 – 51- 25% win rate       9/5 percentage 36%

2/1 odds 682 – 175 -26% win rate     2/1 percentage 33%

5/2 odds 685 – 161-25% win rate      5/2 percentage 29%

3/1 odds 672 – 147-22% win rate     3/1 percentage 25%

7/2 odds 647 – 135-21% win rate      7/2 percentage 22%

4/1 odds 623 –  99-16% win rate       4/1 percentage 20%

9/2 odds 496 – 73-15% win rate        9/2 percentage 18%

5/1 odds 979 – 125–13% win rate     5/1 percentage 17%

6/1 odds 842 –  89-11% win rate       6/1 percentage 14%

7/1 odds 727 –  68-9% win rate         7/1 percentage 13%

8/1 odds 657 –  53-8% win rate         8/1 percentage 11%

9/1 odds 585 –  64-11% win rate       9/1 percentage 10%

10/1 odds 553– 39-7% win rate         10/1 percentage 9%

The way it reads is 1/1 odds had 138 starters. 68 won for a 49% win rate. 1/1 has an actual win rate percentage of 50% that means half the money in the pool is on the 1/1 or even money horse.

The favorite at Del Mar went 1,896-607-32% and this leaves 1,302 non favorites who won at a 9% win rate. 32% is a good win rate for all favorites and 1,302 non favorites is also a pretty large number. The way I handle the statistics is by odds.  What are my percentages on winning with statistics which are odds?

The odds levels are separated by the number or runners and the number of winners for each odds level. 4/5 and down is a total of six odds levels. These went 258–138-53%. These six odds levels are difficult to get a decent exacta payout because 6/5-7/5-3/2 favorites went 441-139-32%. These odds levels under perform to their hit rate percentage; 6/5 has a 45% win rate, 7/5 has 42% and 3/2 has 40%.

The loss rate percentages of 12% then 20% and then 5% is a stretch to bet in the exacta with these kind of stats. The crowd stats on 6/5 loses 12% to par and 7/5 loses 20% to par. This is the graveyard of favorites at Del Mar. 6/5 and 7/5 are the only odds levels that have a double digit loss rate compared to par. All the other odds are within reach; even money is 49%, one point from par. This is impressive as 50% is a magical number to me.  Being in the exacta half the races is a real betting advantage.

Another advantage is knowing how 6/5 and 7/5 percentages win at Del Mar. These odds are not to be feared as a favorite. I do not need to include them in the exacta.

After a time all experienced players find out where they cash by odds with decent exacta payouts. My wheelhouse is around 2/1, 5/2, 3/1 and 7/2 and this corresponds to the most wins by the crowds at Del Mar.  On average per year these four odds levels produce 671 starters and 155 winners. The crowd will cash about one out of every four bets. This brings a smile to me. I am betting into a known hit rate of about 1 out every 4.

2/1 odds are really good exacta bets. The reason is 2/1 favorites is a value play. The next four betting favorites can be 7/2, 6/1, 8/1, 12/1 and you can see the odds the crowd supplies to fill the exacta. From the 682 2/1 runners 412 went off as the favorite,106 won for 26% win rate and 75 placed for an exacta hit rate of 44%.  This is also the value side of an exacta, picking up the chance to cash at an 18% place rate.

The poor win rate for 6/5 and 7/5 was something I did not expect from the crowd. Only a win percentage can tell me that the 6/5 odds is 45% however, the results of 6/5 is 33% which is 2/1. 7/5 results are 22% which is the hit rate of 7/2.  These two odds levels are under lays by the crowd.  Actually I was a little surprised at how good the crowd is betting with 2/1 and 5/2 even though 2/1 missed by eight points and 5/2 by four. These two odds levels supply a 1 out of 4 hit rate.

The results of the crowd betting on Del Mar horses are interesting and supply context to odds. All odds are a percentage of the betting pools.
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2 Years More or Less By Ed Bain

23 months ago I felt a small lump in my neck. I knew what it was. Within a week it had grown enough that I could feel it without pressing on it. Two weeks later I could see it. My primary care doctor sent me to an Ear Nose and Throat Doctor. He took a sample with a needle. A pet scan found it.  He told me I had stage 3 squamous cell cancer.

The E.N.T. doctor sent me to an Oncologist who diagnosed me with Stage 3 squamous cell cancer. It is in my lymphoid glands in my neck, in my larynx and the base of my tongue.

I half heard what he said next. I thought I had cancer in one place and then he got down to it. We can extend your life. How long? I asked. 4 years he said. Can an operation give me a better chance? No it is inoperable. I felt the butterflies of fear. The treatment is Chemotherapy and Radiation. It takes about 2 months to complete.

I knew what this meant; the treatment was going to make me sick. If I don’t do it?  I asked. 2 years more or less he said. The doctor said we have to send you to a dentist and he will pull any teeth that aren’t in good shape. Pull my teeth. Also you will have to have a colostomy type bag attached to your stomach for food and water. You won’t be able to swallow or drink water. The nurse left. The Doc said we are making an appointment with the Dentist right now. We also need to make a mask for administering the radiation. He showed me the mask.

I did not hear much of what he said after that. The nurse came back in and said we can get you into the Dentist a week from today. Ok, we made a future appointment with the Oncologist and then we left.

Susan was with me through the whole presentation. I know she was having a very difficult time with what had just happened. I said to her I’ll know what to do in a day or two trying to slow her anxiety.  I said that was the worst sales job I have ever seen and I have been in sales all my life. Susan agreed as I blamed the messenger but saying this helped both of us.

When I had discovered the lump I did a lot of research on cancer; it’s treatment by the A.M.A and alternatives that I could consider. What I did not realize is how radical cancer treatment is and I thought I had cancer in one place not three. 4 years estimated life extension then cancer will come back no cure. If I do the chemo and radiation the effects on me would begin on day one.  Once I am in the cancer process I am now officially sick.  Then I’ll get better and about 4 years from now it will happen again. The reason is chemo and radiation kills the immune system and allows another type of cancer to develop. This is probably the reason for the 4 year diagnosis.

The next day I cancelled the appointment with the dentist and the oncologist.

I only want to be sick once. 2 years, I told Susan. She was relieved and said whatever I decided she would agree with, and then we cried together then alone.

The problem was the term life extension and not a cure and the truth is I have a choice. Either one is not a choice as the results are the same; get sick once or twice. That’s the choice “oh man”.

I decided on medical marijuana in oil form as treatment. I know what I am facing as treatment with the oncologist and Medical Marijuana. I have not stuck my head in the sand over my diagnosis. I am well aware of what I am facing however, the oncologist is really only giving me a little more time and the process did not give me any reason to get my hopes up; part of that time I will be sick and it will still be about cancer when it recurs. It is a scary decision to make because it is time that I am making a decision on.

I know the side effects of chemo and radiation as well as the time needed to recover. Regret is another reason I chose the Medical marijuana way. If something happens and 2 years turns into “Why did I do chemo and radiation” it is not risk free. I have cancer in three delicate places.

Being a professional horse player helped make my decision because I analyze and bet my own statistics. I did not think the treatment process for gaining time was worth a long shot bet. Saying I would be better off with chemo and radiation than waiting it out?

We lived in Florida where they were still locking up people for smoking pot. Susan and I decided to move to the closest warm weather state that offered medical marijuana that also offered Obama care for Susan who has five auto-immune diseases. Because Susan could not get health care and I could not get medical marijuana in Florida we moved to a state that was not playing politics with our heath. New Mexico was the closest.

There are medical marijuana dispensaries in Albuquerque. Cancer diagnosis approval is generally quicker in states that offer medical marijuana and it took around 2 weeks to get approved by the state.

The cannabis oil comes in a syringe with no needle. I do not smoke it. I squeeze out a line of the oil about the size of a grain of rice on a piece of bread and swallow it. The oil is 60% to 70% THC. When I was a pot smoker I knew that street pot was about 3 ½ percent THC. In oil form it is very powerful. When smoking marijuana it goes instantly right to your brain and lasts around an hour. In oil form it is absorbed into my blood stream and into my immune system to fight cancer. This is where cancer gets started. I do get high taking the oil this way though in a much different way than smoking it. In oil form it is minus the mental confusion of smoking pot and the oil lasts all day.

I have been using it for about a year now, twice a day. The tumor on my neck has grown slightly and my voice is almost gone however, I am in no pain and no feelings of having the worse flu ever.

I have not been free of what cancer can do to my body. I lost a lot of weight, fast, and did not realize it. Susan said Ed you are losing weight. She explained she has an auto immune problem with her pancreas. Her pancreas does not produce enzymes to break down food to supply her body with nourishment and energy so she takes enzymes so she can digest food. She said Ed you are eating the same as always so I think I can stop your weight loss by you taking these same enzymes to break food down. I started taking them and my weight loss stopped and I regained lost pounds. I am in horse racing. I shook my head. I just hit a long shot. I took that as a positive towards the reference to more rather than less.

Weight loss from cancer is a serious issue. It affects organs that are cancer free. I hope I only have to deal with cancer and not end up in the hospital for a problem due to weight loss. Weight loss was solved by the person I love. Susan through her knowledge of what she has to deal with on an every day basis every time she eats with one of her five auto immune diseases. That was help and that was what Susan was trying to do. She was trying to help me. It made me think of odds again. How often is something like that going to happen? Thank you Susan. I was struck that the oncology doctor did not warn me about weight loss.

When I had the pet scan the person injecting me said This is a solution with sugar in it. Sugar is food for cancer. It will come out for something to eat and we can get a good image of it. The oncologist did not warn me about that either. I am a sugarholic. I immediately stopped ingesting ice cream, doughnuts, candy, cokes everything sugar. Maybe this slowed the cancer down.

I believed the oncologist diagnosis of 2 years more or less. On August 3rd it will be 2 years. This puts me into the more side of the diagnosis.

Maybe with cannabis oil I can get what chemo and radiation can get me, 4 years. Maybe that is what the cannabis oil can do. Maybe the pain and misery will be 4 months instead of 6 or 2 months instead of 4. It is a very different mental out look on living with an illness that strikes 1 out every 3 women and every other man. Soon they predict every other person in the U.S. will get cancer. That is an epidemic. Over 160 million people in our country are going to be diagnosed with cancer. I don’t think that cancer is in the gene’s. I think it is environmental, in our food and water.

I have gone over every stupid thing I have said or done to anyone and wish I had never said or done that. Fear wrecks a day. Even with Susan around me I still would rather handle cancer alone. She is going through the same things I am going through. I told Susan when the slide is here I will tell her. I will continue to hide the outer bands of this hurricane until it hits. I am 2 years into my diagnosis. My horse racing stats on edbain.com were down for several months and that was the scariest thing that happened because of the cost to get them back up. I did not realize the focus publishing the stats demands and that is a help for my mental outlook, but not as much help as Susan.

I am a professional handicapper. Just like horse racing I need to handicap the results of what I have done. I wanted time, but time that is free of the effects of cancer for 2 years. This  would be the only way I can measure my decision. 2 years is here and I have to say I hit that bet and that is a good reason to feel that I did the right thing for me.

Maybe in the diagnosis the oncologist knew that I had around 2 years before I got sick.  That means that the chemo and radiation and the 4 years is a little misleading, it’s 2 years.  The A.M.A. had just lowered the statement of we can extend your life for 5 years. Their results for chemo and radiation were so poor; they lowered the life extension pitch to 4 years. This looks like a trend to me.  They will lower life expectancy again in the future as millions of our people are getting cancer. The politicians in Washington are trying to take away our health care and Medicare. For me I feel I have the right kind of help and understanding of living with a bad beat like cancer. I have Susan and she has proven to me what help is. I’ll accept that I will only be sick once.
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Thank You, Ed & Susan

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From Susan:

I’m posting here at the end of Ed’s article and will continue to post any future replies re: The 2 Year’s More or Less article rather than starting a new blog post because Any Horse Players Out There is about horse racing.
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Ed and I want to thank you for your prayers, well wishes and positive energy.

Since this post we’ve been asked about the enzymes that we are taking; which ones do we use and how do we take them. Each is equally important.

By responding here I want to stress this is not a post intending medical advice.  This is my story and how I came to know about taking these digestive enzymes. All of our bodies are different, we may have allergies, reactions to food, medication and/or supplements and before taking anything including these enzymes you should seek the advice of a professional.

In 2011 after all the specialist doctors ran every test available and were not able to figure out what was wrong with me I was referred to the Mayo Clinic. One of the conditions I was diagnosed with is called Steatorrhea. This condition means your body no longer has the ability to absorb fats. The gastroenterologist said this was because my pancreas has been damaged so it no longer produces digestive enzymes. He added as a result I am not receiving the necessary nutrients from the food that I eat. The gastroenterologist did not know how this happened to my pancreas because this is usually a condition that you are born with when you have a disease called Cystic Fibrosis.

I am familiar with cystic fibrosis because my best childhood friend was born with this and she passed away when she was 11. I was an out patient at the Mayo-Clinic for almost a year, seeing various specialists there due to so many different unexplained symptoms. During this same year Mayo Clinic doctors also diagnosed several auto-immune diseases, Lupus, Rheumatoid Arthritis, to name two. When I asked my Gastroenterologist how could  I get this Steatorrhea since I wasn’t born with it he had no firm explanation. He said it may have been caused by one of the auto-immunes.

He prescribed digestive enzymes and said that I should take 4 enzymes with each meal and 2 enzymes with any snack between meals and the way to take them is to First Take a bite of food, then take 1 enzyme.  Then go ahead and start eating and take 1 enzyme again, eat a little more and take another 1 enzyme and then when you’re finished your meal take the last one.  I found that because I’m really not a big eater (as I have such a restricted diet and I try to only consume Non-GMO or Organic Food) that unless I am eating a fatty meal I am OK with 2 enzymes per meal and 1 when having a snack.

The Mayo Clinic also had me see their nutritionist.  This actually happened before the doctor told me about taking the enzymes because the nutritionist explained to me what to look for on labels as well as what I could or could not eat.  I found out that the only oil my body can absorb is Coconut Oil. The nutritionist said that I need to consume at least 2 tablespoons of coconut oil a day because your body needs this to in a sense lubricate our joints.

She said my body Can Not absorb even good oils like Olive Oil so it would be best for me to substitute a refined coconut oil (refined does not taste like coconut oil) where I was using Olive Oil so I do this when I am making salad dressing or baking (by substituting coconut oil for butter or vegetable oil).

The nutritionist also stressed that if I have an intolerance to dairy (which I do because of bone loss) that I should take a dairy digestive enzyme whenever digesting dairy.  I use GNCs  Dairy Digestant .

An additional important notation the nutritionist made was to look at the food labels. She said I should be able to digest any food that has Total Fat grams of 5.0 grams or less.

When I went to see the gastroenterologist after the nutritionist and he explained to me about taking the enzymes I said “I thought I was seeing the nutritionist because they were teaching me how to eat and absorb the nutrition” and he said Yes that is true however everyday there are meals that you will consume that have higher than the 5.0 Total Fat so you still need to take the enzymes. He added it can take up to six months before I physically notice that the enzymes are working.

In time I stopped taking the prescription enzymes because they had a massive cost, even with a co-pay and because they prescribed pigs enzymes that had a potential side effect ; a rare digestive disorder that can come from these pigs and this concerned me.

Eventually I was fortunate that Ed located an old friend of his named Saari who lives and breaths holistic care and she was the one who suggested the Vegan digestive enzymes that we currently use.  Though I now use a different Brand. Originally I was taking Jigsaw enzymes however they cost around $50 for 180 Veggie Caps.  Using as many as we do by adding equal amounts of enzymes I give to Ed we go thru 3 to 4 bottles of these a month.

Then about a year ago I found an equivalent Digestive Enzyme that is Non-GMO, Soy Free and this is Healthy Origins Natural Broad Spectrum Digestive Enzymes – 180 Veggie Caps.  I buy these on line from a company called iherb (seems to have the best price) for under $30 a bottle and this includes shipping.  Here’s a link to these enzymes
https://www.iherb.com/pr/Healthy-Origins-Digestive-Enzymes-Broad-Spectrum-180-Veggie-Caps/57500

Today iherb sent me this link and said: Forward this 10% coupon code to everyone you know via your own unique Rewards code: RQS900
So I believe you will save 10% on checkout by entering that rewards code and if not it’s still a good price.

For everyone: I would like to share how I found out that Ed needed to take these enzymes. This came from a book by Ty Bollinger called The Truth about Cancer.

I went to Google and searched by entering something similar to this “Why do Cancer Patients lose weight even though they eat and still have an appetite?” and there was a quote from Ty’s book about Cancer Patients are not absorbing their nutrients. He said this is because their pancreas no longer produces enzymes. When I read that I knew exactly what this meant and what we had to do and I began giving Ed the same enzymes as me.  It took about 4 months before we saw the change in his body frame and for him to gain weight.  At 2 separate doctors visits over a few months apart his weight maintained itself and that made us both happy.  Then about 45 days later they weighed Ed during this doctor visit and he had gained 7 pounds!  Now, today we both think he has gained back at least ½ of the 30 pounds that he lost.  This has been a real boost because we know that the enzymes are working and he is absorbing nutrients. 🙂

What is a Class Dropper?

Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claim is a class drop however, that drop does not indicate if the horse will win. This is the easiest class drop to spot as a play.

Class is the level of competition this horse has run in. Is dropping in class a viable approach to bet a horse or is class a secondary factor?  I bet only trainer statistics on layoffs, claims and debuts and jockey-trainer statistic as a primary factor. That’s sort of the Swiss army knife of handicapping For me class is a secondary factor.

Although in 1989 when Kent Desormeaux raced at Laurel and Pimlico and set the record for most wins in a year, 598. I am sure I bet a boat load of Desormeaux’s droppers during that year. He was in every exacta or trifecta I placed a bet on.

A horse will run at higher class levels at the beginning of a horses’ career as a 2, 3 or 4 year old. A horse moving up in class can be much easier to find and bet than a class dropper. Class droppers are always talked about or pointed out by horse players and they are over bet because of the personal publicity.

Age and injuries have to be acknowledged on a class drop. Betting on a class dropper has to be from experience if you don’t have a statistic like a trainer’s percentage of his horses dropping from stakes to Optional claim. Then that bet is a guess. Keep in mind that for me this type of bet is a horse that I am adding in to fill out an exotic wager and not a bet as a key horse for the exacta. This add in horse can be easy to include with my key bet and impossible for me to bet as a key horse.  About the only thing I look at in a dropping horse is the difference in purse size from race to race.

I consider that 10% of all races are random. There are many races that nobody knows why a horse wins, about 10% of them. The speed players hit races I can not and I hit races they do not see.

I had trainer statistics on up one class level and down one class level and could not find a key horse to bet.  I also had statistics on up two class levels and down two class levels and found out these statistics were a non-factor as a primary reason to bet. A horse dropping in class or going up in class had no impact on the random 10%. This is the way that I compare the ability a trainer stat has too random. With a 10% win rate for droppers it can not overcome the problem that random offers because random is without rules or methods and you cannot have an advantage if I am betting random dropping horses whose trainer can not get above 10%.

This is from a grinder. The long term problem betting dropping horses is the loss rate of 90 losers to 10 winners from 100 bets, about a months worth of plays.  The number of run outs per hundred bets will stop you from betting. Every 100 races there will be 20 to 30 losers in a row. Every week there is a 10 to 15 race losing streak. Averaging 1 winner every 10 races sounds easy to accept as a play however, the problem is because you lost 9 in a row does not mean the next race he will win. Any player trying to cash on 10% as a living will get the horse dropping knocked out of them.

In the long run the grind will get you however; horses dropping in class can be a good secondary factor long shot play to include with my key horse in an exotic wager.

The layoff is the best way to bet a horse dropping in class because it is a decision the trainer is making when they lay the horse off then when to return the horse from a layoff and the trainer decided what class level to drop that horse into. The same applies to a horse that is claimed and dropping in class. Like the layoff, this is a trainer move and each of these moves is an odds play. The layoff horse has higher odds to bet than a claimed horse because most handicappers view layoffs as a negative.

Generally the way most handicappers bet is if a horse has a lot of races class becomes a factor. When the horse is now dropping in class they guess can he run back to that race he ran eight races ago? This horse has won at a higher class levels and today the horse is in a lower claiming race. The drop may be big but is it a class move or is the drop needed for this horse to be competitive at this class level.

Eight races ago may have been as long as ten months ago in actual time and today he is in a race that says maybe the drop is a negative instead of a reason to bet.

The tote board can be handicapped for a class dropper. I look at the morning line to the actual odds and then how the odds move up or down. I look for patterns.  A dropper is never a reason for me to place a bet. I bet one key horse with 3 filler horses in an exacta, a total of 4 horses for the exacta.

My filler selections can come down to the fourth versus the fifth favorite. It could be the 15/1 dropper with a small start trainer and he has his go-to jockey riding today. This is a good add in horse. Maybe he can hit one of those ten winners in a hundred races.

Trying to connect a race year ago to today’s race and believe the horse can repeat that effort makes me a skeptic. Even if it was 5 races back, for me it is a no bet. The horse can’t keep up at $12,500 claimer and now is in a $8,500 claimer. The same question is there.  Can the horse win on the drop? Is he a class play?  I am inclined to doubt all accepted opinions.

———-

Ed Bain author of new Horse Racing Novel
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Bain has been betting professionally on thoroughbred horse racing since 1994 using the statistics that he has compiled.

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I Like Betting on Millionaires

The Santa Anita racing meet just closed. Over the past 4 years there were 146 jockeys who went to post. Santa Anita has a very competitive jockey colony. The way I record jockey statistics is track specific, separated by jockey-trainer, sprint and route and the count is for the exacta 40% is bold and in red and 50% is bold and in blue. These are the statistics and colors that I like to bet.

Santa Anita has the big race riders of Mike Smith, a recent Triple Crown winner who has earned over $320 million.  His 10% is worth over $32 million. Victor Espinoza, also a recent Triple Crown winner, produced $198 million in purses and almost $20 million for his commissions and Gary Stevens who has won each leg of the Triple Crown three times who has earned over $256 million in purses and his 10% is worth around $26 million in commissions.

In the Garden spot is Rafael Bejarano who has earned for his career a little over $195 million and $19 million for himself and Kentucky Derby winner Kent Desormeaux with just under $198 million in earnings and a personal income of around $19 million.  Make a mistake and

these jockeys can make the next move up; Flavien Prat who has earned over $36 million and commissions of $3.6 million, Joe Talamo has earned just under $98 million and $9 million for himself. Tyler Baze has won about $112 million and $11 million for his commissions. Edwin Maldonado has cashed for over $35 million and his commission is over $3.5 million. Two-time Kentucky Derby winner Mario Gutierrez has earned just under $45 million and $4.5 million for his percentage.  And there are more quality jockeys sitting behind them. The competition for mounts at Santa Anita is unseen by the grandstand.

All the top riders at Santa Anita are veterans. Very few bug boys make it here. The Route races at Santa Anita is where the Triple Crown starts its annual run with trainers like Bob Baffert and Doug O’Neil. The line up of jockeys is formidable. 131 jockeys went to post in Route races. There are 131 jockeys willing to replace these millionaires who are at the top and there are other millionaires trying to replace other millionaires above them.There were 11 races on closing day at Santa Anita with a total purse payout of $590,000. The winner gets 60%, $354,000 and the winning jockey gets 10%, just over $35,000 awarded in commissions. That is why 146 jockeys have taken a shot at Santa Anita. The top 10 jockeys are really 20 deep.

Mike Smith earned around $312,000 for the three Triple Crown wins, about six and a half minutes of work. Around 25% of his commission went to the jockey agent who books his mounts, $77,000 and 10% goes to Mike Smith’s valet around $31,000. The valets keep the jockeys looking like the millionaires that they are. In total $109,000 which nets Mike about $200,000 before taxes from three races. Two different jockey’s, both based at Santa Anita won the Triple Crown two out of the last four years.

The way I determine how good a jockey is, is through the trainers and their red and blue statistics. The red stats generally have a larger number of races than the blue stats. Blue has stats that are 50% in the exacta and this catches a lot of 4 for 8 or 5 for 10 stats and many of these are for small start trainers. So how many red and blue stats does it take to make a millionaire in route races? According to the trainers; Rafael Bejarano is one of the best millionaires to put on your horse .Bejarano has raced for 78 different trainers. 16 trainers in route races have red and blue stats, 21% Rafael has very big stats to bet on. Rafael has earned over $19 million for himself and over $195 million for his owners for all his races

Elvis Trujillo has two red or blue stats from 33 route trainers, 6% however, he has earned $70 million on the track, $7 million in commissions. Trujillo needs more route races to get to that $100 million in earnings mark. Like me Elvis Trujillo is probably only aware of today’s races and not what happened yesterday.

Mike Smith rode for 43 trainers and 7 are red or blue stats, 16%. Kent Desormeaux rode for 43 trainers with 7 red or blue stats, 16% and Joe Talamo has 72 trainers that supplied him with 7 red or blue stats, 10%. Talamo has almost $100 million in earnings, Smith almost $314 million and Desormeaux has $198 million and they each earn 10%.

55 trainers went to post with Drayden Van Dyke. Two were red or blue stats, 4%. Van Dyke still earned $25 million overall on the track and $2.5 million for his 10%. These kind of stats and earnings is an indicator of how good Van Dyke is in a very talented group of very competitive and driven jockey colony.  The big purse money is in route races and he still produces a good living without a lot of support from the route trainers.

Santiago Gonzalez has $16 million in earnings, $1.6 million for his commission. 44 trainers that Gonzalez rode for have 6 red and blue stats, 14%.

Gary Stevens has stats with 49 trainers and produce 6 40% and 50% red and blue stats, 12%. He has earned $256 million in purses and over $25 million in personal income.

Victor Espinoza raced for 40 trainers and 5 were red or blue, 13%. He cashed for almost $198 million for his owners and they paid him over $19 million. Sometimes I get confused who owns the Bentley.

Tyler Baze raced for 90 trainers and had 4 red or blue statistics, 4%.  Baze has cashed for almost $112 million and around $11 million in personal income.

On closing day Tyler Baze won 3 races with purses that totaled $179,000. The winning owner made 60% and Tyler Baze made 10% of that, about $10,800.

Rafael Bejarano won 2 races with purses totaling $163,000. The owner made over $107,000 and Bejarano’s 10% commission was over $10,000.

Kent Desormeaux hit one race with a purse of $36,000.  $21,600 went to the owner and Desormeaux cashed for about $2,100.

Flavien Prat hit the 2nd race and race 7 on closing day for total purse money of $60,000.  $36,000 went to the owners and $3,600 Prat earned for himself.

Joe Talamo scored on race 8 with a $59,000 purse. $35,400 went to the owner and Talamo went home with over $3,000.

Tyler Conner won race 4 with a purse of $30,000. $18,000 went to the owner and Conner made $1,800 in commissions. Tyler Conner has earned $11 million on the track and his 10% is $1.1 million.

The last race on closing day was won by Triple Crown winner Mike smith for a purse of $63,000. $37,800 of this purse was for the owner and $3,780 was Smith’s 10% commission. 146 other jockeys are trying to do what he is doing.

The rewards of being a jockey are if you can catch on as a jockey you can earn millions in commissions. The reality is 146 are trying to muscle their way into these millions.  The competition for mounts is relentless. When a jockey makes it they have to maintain that ability to race and win even if they are injured or ill. If they have to take time off to recover another jockey just as talented as he is will step right in. Jockeys can not rest on their laurels like a Triple Crown winner because another Triple Crown winner can replace you or he will be replaced by another jockey who is just as good,

Charles Darwin said “The environment determines what an animal behaves like and looks like.”  The jockey colony at Santa Anita is civil to each other and the public. Ask any jockey a question and you will get a direct and honest answer.  I bet on millionaires but none of them act like millionaires. They leave the politics of securing mounts to their jockey agent and their differences with each other are handled mostly in the jockey’s room. You would never know all these jockeys are wealthy. Maybe Darwin was talking about jockeys or maybe he was talking about me. I like betting on millionaires.
———-

Ed Bain author of new Horse Racing Novel
Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines

Bain has been betting professionally on thoroughbred horse racing since 1994 using the statistics that he has compiled.

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Betting Menu

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I found a horse to bet through a trainer exacta stat. So what should I bet?

The double? I have a great exacta stat and if he wins I could single him in the double. It should be between the favorite and the second favorite in the second race. That could be a good bet.

Maybe single him in a pick three and then do a spread. Single my stat with the two favorites in the next race and all in the last leg of the pick three.

I could do a pick four; one with two with all in the 3rd leg and all in the final leg and if I hit maybe have a really good day however, to do that will run up the cost of the bet because I now have to look at how much to spread the bet to have a shot at cashing in serial race pools. Odds and payouts are an influence on my selections. If I have a single I can spread the bet in the races I need to.

The double is out.

The pick three is out.

The pick four is also out.

The reason is I have a trainer exacta stat is so I do not look at serial races. It is tough enough to hit the race. I think I have an advantage because I also have to do a spread to hit that exacta.

Cost and the amount of horses needed for the spread is always an issue. Well that doesn’t sound so bad. My hit rate is 25%. I like to bet trainer stats that are 40% or more in the exacta as an anchor.  If the stat can come in 1st or 2nd I will cash 1 out of every 4 bets I make from a 40% plus trainer exacta stat. Can I bet this stat when the trainer is trying to hit with this horse and can I do a spread big enough to the other runners to fill the exacta and cash my bet.

I have an 8 horse field and I have a standard exacta key bet as one with three horses and three with one. It looks like two of the top four runners will take the exacta. The other four are 10/1 odds and higher and have major knocks against them.

My stat horse is the second favorite in this race at 3/1. The favorite is 8/5.  A $2.00 exacta box would cost $6 bucks each way for my standard key bet of one with three and three with one for a total of $12.00?  I could box the four horses and it would cost $24 and any two of these four can come in first and second and I hit the exacta. The exacta will pay from $28 to $80 if it hits. These payouts happen every day. So can I hit this race?

Most likely if I hit the exacta it will pay around $35 to $45 dollars.

A four horse trifecta box is out.  If the favorite and second favorite have to be included in the bet the trifecta will not pay much.

I could bet win/place if my 3/1 shot comes in I make $8.00 for every $2.00 I bet.  If my horse places that will pay about $4.00 for every $2.00 I bet.

I like the exacta key as a bet, one with three in an eight horse field for a $2 bet costs $6.00.  Turn it around three with one is also $6 dollars for a total of $12.  If I was going to bet the same amount for a four horse box for $24 I could put the other $12 into my exacta spread and hit it multiple times.

And these are my betting menu choices; an exacta one with three and three with one.
———

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Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claim “The Big Drop”

Maiden Special Weights (MSW) is a class that has well bred horses and most of the stars of racing come from this class level. MSW purses are around the fourth largest purses from about twenty class levels at each track.

Maiden Claims (MCL) purse amounts are located at the bottom of the class purse structure. The drop from MSW to MCL is the biggest drop in racing.

Belmont Park MSW Purse’s starts at around $50,000 and is the start of the MSW purse ladder. Belmont cards Maiden Special Weight purses that go up to $100,000. This is equivalent to a good stakes purse. The drop to Maiden Claim starts at around $20,000.

Santa Anita MSW purse starts at around $50,000 and MCL begins around $20,000.

Woodbine MSW also starts at about $50,000 and the drop to MCL is around $20,000.

When a horse wins a MSW purse of $62,000 at Belmont the owner receives 60% of the purse and his commission is $37,200. The MCL purse of $20,000 also has a 60% commission and has a payout to the owner of $12,000. There is over a $25,000 difference when MSW drops in class to MCL which is the reason why MSW to MCL is the largest drop in racing.

This is not an angle play. I disagree with calling a statistic an angle. The definition of angle is a particular way of approaching or considering an issue or problem. Horse Racing statistics are the amount of races and wins and then the percentage of these wins. It is easy to evaluate a statistic rather than considering something.

Many owners do not want their young expensive horse to be put up for sale at a bargain basement price and lose their horse to a claim so they run their horse over and over in MSW.  Sometime they run them 10 or 12 times before they drop their horse into the class of Maiden Claim.

The large trainers at New York, Southern California and Woodbine are the trainers who utilize this MSW drop to MCL to get the purse as well as get their horse claimed away.

Trainers who have a large stable like Bob Baffert in Southern California, or Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, and Linda Rice in New York and Mark Casse at Woodbine race their high pedigree two and three year olds in the MSW class. These are the trainers you want to bet who are moving from Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claim. These trainers have to discuss with their owners that to get a win they have to drop their horse into MCL.  This is a big move for the owner. The owner has invested in the horse’s pedigree and the gamble was that he purchased a stakes winner. To have a graded stakes horse that they will put in to the breeding shed and the owner hopes to make millions of dollars for syndicating shares of his horse. With the Maiden Special Weight class this happens.

Well bred horses from Chad Brown dropping into MCL events are up for sale and when another owner claims a well bred horse from Chad Brown the new owner hopes he just claimed a stakes runner.

From the betting side of racing most players know about that big drop. For me it is only the first drop into the Maiden Claiming class that is the bet to make. If their horse has been in MCL for their second race at this class level then I pass the bet.

It’s an easy play to find however, they are not there to bet every day or even every week. If you look for this by handicapping on race 1 horse 1 then you handicap in the same way as the betting public. This bet is not that easy to find and then try to determine can this horse win because of the big drop. You should be really cautious for this style of handicapping. Not bet a drop into the Maiden Claiming from Maiden Special Weights races by all trainers. The five trainers I mentioned have a class pedigree edge that is hidden and the big drop with that pedigree makes the bet a more attractive reason to place a bet. It is also a business decision for the owner so it is a planned move for them as well as their trainer. When I bet the big drop I usually like to place the bet when any of these five trainers return a horse from a layoff or when they are in the 4-race layoff or debut form cycle and then they go for the hit is when I bet with them.


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I Bet Trainer Stats

I Bet Trainer Stats. Bet speed if you want. I’ll take trainers with a go to jockey.

Trainer Mark Casse and jockey Patrick Husbands at Woodbine in sprint races over the past four years went 520-238-46% in the exacta stats. About 130 sprint races per year.

April 21st was opening day at Woodbine and since there has been 22 racing days for trainer Mark Casse and jockey Patrick Husbands. 19 of these 22 days they teamed up in sprint races.

There are two ways to approach a big stat like this; bet them all or cherry pick.

I recorded how Casse and Husbands performed in sprint races in an excel spreadsheet and from opening day they’ve ran in a total of 40 sprint races

Click Photos for Larger Image

 

The first six races up to column F are self explainable. The last seven is where I will center up on.

Starting with column G (Odds) which are the finishing odds.

(Exacta) this column will only show three things; if the horse won, placed or ran Out of the exacta

(Payouts) is for win or place payouts.

(Exacta payout) shows every exacta payout where Casse and Husbands were 1st or 2nd in the exacta.

(Other Exacta Horse) is the non Casse and Husbands horse that made it into the exacta and how they ended up in odds from 1st Favorite on up.

(Field Size) the number of runners in the race.

On opening day April 21 in race 8 Mark Casse and Patrick Cousins had Conquest Enforcer ready to run he ran Out of the exacta.

This is the chronological results from then to now.

Casse and Husbands have 2 runners the next day the 22nd . In race 4 Sanity won. Casse  and Husbands had their first sprint win and exacta of 2018 at Woodbine. Sanity paid $10.40 He was 4/1. The exacta paid $28.80. The Other Horse which is the other half of the exacta was the 1st Favorite at 9/5 in a 9 horse field.

In races 8 Blueblood placed and paid $2.60. His odds were 7/5. The exacta paid $20.20 and the Second Favorite came in at 3/1 in a 6 horse field.

Casse and Husbands had 3 sprinters entered on the 28th of March.

The 1st sprinter in race 5 Rosemere won and paid $4.40. He was the 6/5 Favorite. The Other horse was the 2nd Favorite at 5/2. The exacta paid $14.40 in a 9 horse field.

In race 6 Connection Ran Out of the exacta.

In Race 8 Let It Ride Mom Won and paid $9.30. The Exacta paid $30.70. The Other Horse for the exacta was the 1st favorite who was 7/5 in an 8 horse field.

March 29 Casse and Husbands have 4 runners. The first runner in race 2 places and pay’s $3.80. Amen Alley was 2/1. The Other Horse for the exacta was the 3rd Favorite at 3/1.The exacta paid $31.60 in a 6 horse field.

Race 7 # 6 Colonel Canuck Ran Out of the exacta.

Race 10 # 4 Picasso Moon Ran Out.

Race 11 # Show Girl Ran Out.

May 4th Race 6 # 2 One Moment Ran Out.

May 5th Race 3 # 6 Kingsport Ran Out of the exacta.

For Mark Casse and Patrick Husbands in sprint races they went to post 12 times since opening day, were in the exacta 5 times for a 42% exacta strike rate. In the first 6 days at Woodbine Casse and Husbands were in the exacta 5 days. All of their Exacta payouts involved the 1st,2nd or 3rd Favorite.

May 6th Casse and Husbands had two runners; race 2 Get the News Placed at 6/5 and paid $2.90 and the exacta paid $31.80. The 2nd Favorite filled the exacta at 9/2 in a 7 horse field. 12 horses went to post in race 5 Southern Greatness Won and paid $ 3.50. The exacta paid $ 7.90. The 2nd Favorite was The Other Horse at 5/2.

May 11th race 6 Souper Shenanigan ran Out of the exacta.

May 12 race 8 Closer Still Won at 8/5 and paid $5.40. The exacta paid $71.20. The 5th Favorite came in at 11/1 in a 7 horse field.

May 13 three more sprinters for Casse and Husbands; race 4 Royal Creed Won paying $4.10 at even money and the exacta paid $28.00. The Other Horse was the 5th favorite at 9/1 in an 8 horse field.

Casse’s had Sanity in race 6. He won at 7/2 and paid $9.10. The exacta paid $56.00. The Other Horse in the exacta was the 4th Favorite at 7/1 in a 9 horse field.

Race 7 Florida Won Placed and paid $3.50. The exacta was $19.10.  The 2nd Favorite came in at 5/2 in a 7 horse field. Since the five race losing streak Casse and Husbands hit 6 out of 7 exactas.

May 18 race 7 Picasso Moon Ran Out.

May 19 Race 5 Afleet Connection ran out.

In race 7 # 7 Black Canary Won at 3/2 and paid $ 5.10. The exacta paid $10.20. The Other Horse was the 2nd favorite at 7/5 in a 10 horse field.

May 20th Casse and Husbands had 5 sprinters .

Race 1 Syllable placed with a mutuel of $2.30.  He was the 4/5 Favorite.
The exacta paid $9.50.  The 2nd Favorite came in at 3/2 in a 5 horse field.

Casse and Husbands placed in race 3 with Sow Girl at $2.50 with 6/5 odds. The 3rd favorite won at 5/2 the exacta paid $21.50.

The third sprinter in race 7 Honor and Trust ran out.

The 4th entry in race 8 Listendlisten ran out.

The 5th sprinter in race 9 Vanish ran out.

May 21 race 6 Undermine ran out.

Race 7 # 6 Commute ran out.

May 26th race 7 Get The News ran out.

May 26th race 9 4 Hollow Point ran out.

Casse and Husbands have been out of the exacta for 7 races in a row.

The last race of the day in race 10 Casse and Husbands break the losing streak with Dea who won at 5/2 and paid $7.80. The exacta paid $36.90. The Other Horse was the 2nd Favorite at 3/1 in a 12 horse field.

May 27th Casse and Husbands hit another sprinter in race 7 with Salute with Honor and paid $4.80, 7/5 odds. The exacta was $29.60. The 5th Favorite filled the exacta at 9/1 in an 8 horse field.

June 1st they Won with Ride The Comet at 3/1 paying $8.20. The exacta paid $74.80 when the 4th Favorite filled the exacta at 13/1 in a 7 horse field.

June 2nd Casse and Husbands had three sprinters;
Race 5 # 2 Sailng By ran out.

Race 7 # 4 Elusive Quality Won paying $5.10 at 3/2 odds and the exacta paid $15.70. The 2nd Favorite came in at 5/2 in a 9 horse field.

Race 8 Conquest Panthera ran out.

June 3rd Casse and Husbands had three more sprinters; Race 6 Fly Away Pride Places at 6/5 and pays $3.50. The exacta is $109.30. The 5th Favorite came in at 9/1 in an 8 horse field.

Race 9 Conquest Lemonraid placed at 25/1. There was no payout for second place. It was a 4 horse field the exacta paid $6.60. The 1st Favorite won at 1/10 odds in a 4 horse field.

Race 11 # 5 Undermine ran out.

Casse and Husbands went 9-7-78% in the exacta on their last 9.

Mark Casse and Patrick Husbands since opening day went to post with 40 sprinters, 20 hit the exacta for a 50% exacta hit rate.

From the 20 exactas 9 won and 11 placed. 19 racing days and Casse and Husbands averaged 2.1 runners a day even though there were only 4 days with 2 runners. Casse and Husbands hit and lost in bunches.

They had two losing streaks. The first was 5 races then the second was 7 races. They had 3 exacta streaks of 3 races and one 4 race exacta streak.

6 horses produced exactas of $15.70 or less. All had the 1st or the 2nd Favorite as half the exacta.

The Other Horse is a very interesting category. It shows how the exacta relates to the favorites and the payouts.

The 1st Favorite came in 3 times with Casse and Husbands.

The 2nd Favorite was the other half of the exacta 9 times

The 3rd favorite 2 times.

The 4th Favorite 2 times.

The 5th Favorite 4 times.

If my betting plan was one key horse and three fillers then turn it around and bet 3 fillers with the key horse for the exacta that’s a total of 4 horses I could key Casse and effectively bet up to the 4th Favorite and cash on 16 of Casse’s 20 exactas. I label that cherry picking.

Mark Casse and Patrick Husbands hit 20 exactas from their sprinters and averaged a $32.69 exacta.

Last Week I spent two days looking at videos on handicapping. I know that from these two days I did not watch, listen or find a trainer handicapper. All were speed players trying to ad in a positive trainer stat to their speed play or exotic bet. If they were trainers players they would have said I bet trainers. Mark Casse and Patrick Husbands at Woodbine in sprint races over the past 4 years went 520-238-46%. This year on their first 40 sprint races at Woodbine they have been in the exacta 20 times for a 50% strike rate. Today Saturday the 9th at Woodbine Trainer Mark Casse and Jockey Patrick Husbands have 3 sprinters.

Race 3 # 9 Blackout 6/1

Race 5 # 5 Hanalei Moon 7/2

Race 6 # 4 Closer Still 6/1

For The Triple Crown I will root for Justify at 4/5.

 

YOUTUBE AND HANDICAPPING

I went to YouTube and typed in “Horse Racing Handicapping Statistics” and an amazing amount of videos came up, all with the same corresponding handicapping language. I was not looking for anything in particular. I was just looking for a video that would catch my interest. I did not view any video that had the word system in it or any that had hype words like guarantee or purchase my product on Wednesday and on Saturday you will be on a vacation in Paris.

The word used often was angles. Applying your angles and finding live long shots or certain angles with a big price was a popular expression. That was about it for angles. Some videos would mention 2nd after a layoff as an angle however, no stats were given. They did mention patterns. They said this horse has a good form pattern and the jockey has been on this horse the last five races. None mentioned or identified where the form cycle started or ends or the jockey-trainer hit rate. Some players tried to help by saying what they believe was important by what to circle on the Racing Form.

Many videos were from the United Kingdom. Most were not players but services selling stuff to handicappers. I have to say some were very well produced by showing results with a contested finish. They supplied flash and optics to their products and they had some of the best music to get you in the mood to be interested in their product.

The U.S. videos did not have as much flash and style. They consisted mostly of players explaining their products in the videos, products showing mostly the big three. Then there were some handicappers who have descent product knowledge on the Racing Form who wanted to help by explaining what they had learned and what was important to handicap.

It’s the players that were trying to help with their handicapping knowledge and trying to pass that knowledge to any one who will listen that can be sort of interesting. I did get some videos. One was a good short video named Probability vs. Odds. This proves there are many levels to handicapping; the angle guys end up perpetuating the same style of handicapping techniques as the pattern guys. Patterns were discussed without the aid of statistics. The same issue with angles. I do not know how you can explain either of these without statistics. My key word on my query was statistics.

The Racing Form had some hour and longer shows. I liked what Formulator is about and how they used it although; they did miss the most important handicapping starting point, track specific information. Their videos are really long. One talked about trainer stats. He discussed stats on trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He said he pulled up Kiaran stats at all tracks and then removed New York and Gulfstream Park where McLaughlin primarily races. McLaughlin was 96-4 everywhere else. The player who found that stat bet into these 4 winners for other reasons, probably speed because speed is one dimensional once they find the fastest horse that is the bet. Speed players do not need any other information. He ignored the 92 from 96 races that lost. He did not understand that he had found the big important statistic to make a decision with which was to pass the bet. I shook my head at that move. 92 losers and he still bet Kiarans horse.

The biggest take away for me on their videos is none rounded out the statistic with its corresponding percentage, like the trainer’s current record is 53-13 and then no percentage. The 53-13 stat made me feel like it was a negative to them. 24% is a great hit rate and this hit rate puts this trainer in the elite class. On small sample size they said things like they need big samples because small samples rely on a leap of faith.

One reason it is hard for the players in these videos to improve a handicappers game is because percentages are not used and are rarely mentioned. The handicappers repeat the numbers not the percentages because the information does not include the percentage. To me it’s as important as the number of races and the number of wins and then the percentage has to be part of understanding what you are looking at. If the expert playing McLaughlin’s stat had the percentage listed like this 96-4-4% win rate, he may have had a more intuitive understanding of statistics and win rate. Without the percentages they miss a crucial visual to handicap by eliminating horses through a negative statistic. This is as important as betting a horse with a positive percentage statistic.

Dave Schwartz is a very knowledgeable handicapper and had some interesting videos on Improving Your Game: Horse Racing Math. He uses math, money or percentages in his videos and they are short and easy to understand.

In the search bar I typed in Horse racing speed and YouTube came up with hour after hour, video after video of speed handicapping. If I was a new player I would probably be influenced with this volume of videos and become a speed player. It seems that all speed players believe that speed is the truth the light and the way. It took a few years of going to the track before I became a serious player with speed and then I made my own speed figs. I am fortunate because that one year I tracked my bets and speed did not make the cut. I lost money. I bailed out of playing speed and developed trainer statistics and it was the best thing I ever did in my life of betting on the horses.

I would never advise a player not to try speed or statistics. What works for some may not work for others. With experience you may come up with the better mouse trap to bet with.

Betting is about your personal decisions with what information you have. Handicapping is labor intensive; finding things that work for each player means they are determined to find something that works for their approach or add into their handicapping regime. Handicapping this way means we are not a lazy bunch. You could say we are ruthless, competitive and prefer caffeine.  I mostly liked the YouTube videos on statistical handicapping. I could see where it could help or hinder someone trying to figure out how to bet on the horses. The best teacher in life is experience.
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edbain.com News
Re: The online statistics on my website edbain.com
The database is only publishing some races and some tracks and not all so the programmer is still trying to locate the issue. The database is massive and updates daily and sometimes something happens to one part and it affects the whole and the programmers has to go through each calculation to find where this is in order to correct it.  This is a tedious as well as costly task. I am unable to say when we’ll be fully back up and running, it could be today or it could be another week. As a player who uses my statistics I understand the inconvience this issue has caused and I appreciate everyones patience regarding this.  To all current subscribers, you’re welcome to view the races that are currently showing. Please know we will be adding all this down time back into your subscription.
The same applies to anyone who purchases a new subscription.
edbain.com PPs You will be able to view the stats that are posting now though your subscription won’t actually begin until all the races are posting.
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We recently completed Jockey-Trainer Exacta reports for the Ohio Circuit, Penn National and Delaware.  All Jockey-Trainer exacta reports are offered in either pdf for immediate download Or in book publication form. Today thru tomorrow save 10% when ordering any one publication by entering coupon code Save10 Or 15% when ordering two or more by entering coupon code Save15 upon checkout.
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I asked Ed who was his Favorite Jockey-Trainer Exacta Stat

From Susan:

Ed had a lot of requests for his Jockey-Trainer Exacta Report for specific racetracks and he has completed these and has the report ready for all these tracks;
New York (Aqueduct-Belmont-Saratoga), Southern California (Delmar-LRC-Santa Anita), KY (Churchill-Ellis-Keeneland-Turfway), Parx, Laurel, Tampa, Gulfstream, Golden Gate, Woodbine, Finger Lakes, Monmouth, Illinois (AP-HAW)Texas (Lone Star- Houston-Retama), Prairie Meadows, IndianaLouisiana A.M. Edition (Louisiana & Fairgrounds), Louisiana P.M. Edition (Evangeline & Delta) Presque Isle, Charles Town.  OR Louisiana has all tracks in pdf only (Delta-Evangeline-Fair Grounds -Louisiana), Penn National and Delaware Park

and I was curious what was his favorite stat out of all these Jockey-Trainer Exacta Report stats and his reply was Taylor Rice and all her Rice connections at Presque Isle Downs.  Every Rice family member took care of her when she rode. And even though Taylor is no longer riding, Ed say’s this is true Trainer Intent. Taylor is married to one of the top jockey’s in our Country, Jose Ortiz. They have a daughter.  Ed said she is 1/2 of the exacta 🙂
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Save 10% today thru midnight tomorrow when purchasing any publication in our Book Store or 15% when purchasing 2 publications or more by entering coupon code Save10 or Save15 upon checkout.