Odds % Payout Table & Tomorrows Potential Bets
Hello everyone,
Tomorrow is another race day and I’m currently culling through the full list of potential bets. When I have the filtered list ready I will post the actual potential bets here. This isn’t exactly how I had planned for things to unfold as my normal person is very organized. Even if the organization only makes sense to me. LOL However things came together over the last few days on how to apply these stats so I found myself ready to begin our test bets. Because of this I haven’t been able to fill you in on everything that I wanted to before we began testing and then I realized that this may actually be the best way. By starting first, posting everything, then walking everyone through the decision process as we are in motion that things would make a lot more sense to everyone because you will see the bets we select first.
That said, I do have a lot of catching up to do and in the process did not realize that tomorrow, Monday was a holiday and most of the tracks are running. So my thoughts of filling everyone in about what we bet today has to be delayed for another day so I have the time to look at tomorrow’s potentials. First is the list of all potentials before Susan applies filters;
and
Below is a post I started so I could share additional factors that impact our decision as to what we should bet and during the week when things are quieter, I will expand on this. I’ll leave this as is right now because I do think the images self explain and this will give everyone some time to absorb some of what we’ve already put together.
———
The most important document to keep with you at all times when deciding to place or pass a bet. Here’s an image for reference and below that is a link so everyone can download a copy too.
Our first official day of test bets included 2 passes; Tampa Race 5 and Gulfstream Race 6. Even though each one we decided Not to bet won, our reason for passing is solid.
We Broke Our Maiden!!!
Congratulations everyone. Will write a lot more tomorrow but just had to acknowledge our first win. After track cancellations and scratches we were left with three bets (one not listed that has yet to go off at GP in Race 10, we have the 5 to Show) because we cancelled the bet on Tampa Race 5 and Gulfstream Race 6 due to odds verses the percentages. We bet Tampa Race 8, the 7 to win and show and lost and then we bet the race that broke our Maiden, Aqueduct Race 7, we bet the 6 to Place. Even though he won at great odds, the percentages said to place and so I listened. This will now make sense of yesterday’s comment when stating that sometimes we will bet to place and they win. There are times we’ll bet to win and they place and there are also times when we’ll bet both Win, Place. By following the stats and their consistency we will make us a great deal of money over the long term.
Will be in touch again tomorrow about what happened today.
From my heart, Thank You for being part of this venture. Without You this wouldn’t have happened. We’re in the process of fulfilling Eds lifelong dream.
Today
Good Morning,
Rather than add to yesterday’s blog post at the bottom and risk that you may not see what I want you to see about todays potential wagers, I’m initiating a new post so I can add anything here that is pertinent to todays wagers.
First remember my mentioning that we may not bet the programs potential listed bet because I see stats that lead me in another direction and this is the case in Tampa Race 8. We are going to pass on the 5 Baby Boomer and plan to bet the 7 Frontier Mesa to Win and to Show. Then in an upcoming post when we discuss todays plays I’ll show you why I am choosing this horse over the other. Remember this does not mean that the 5 Baby Boomer will not win nor does this mean that the 7 Frontier Mesa will. Test betting is an essential element guiding us to our path.
Interface – Potential Bets All- Then Potential Bets
Good evening everyone,
As mentioned in a previous post in order to release Version 1 to advance us to a point where we would be able to begin test bets I was faced with making some difficult decisions as to what necessarily had to be included in this first release. And one of these decisions meant accepting the interface in its’ current state. What this relates to in actual time spent establishing the days plays is when we have everything in place and our betting program reaches it’s completed state that I should be able to make all our potential betting decisions in about an hour, the day that we would be making bets. However in the current Version 1 format, depending on the amount of potential bets displayed, the decision as to what we may potentially bet can take anywhere from 4 to 6 hours to cull through, deciding which races offer the best possibilities.
You’ll note that the list of potential bets in the summary is from the algorithms already implemented however there are many yet to integrate and the racing class that suffers the most when the hierarchy rating that is assigned is the Maidens; both Special Weight and Maiden Claiming. The reason is there is no history so all figures are based off of the fine tuned overall stats of Track-Class-Distance-Surface and Field Size and because of this the statistics in the present form can only display information that is integrated. Missing from the Maidens is pedigree, workouts, equipment and medication changes, race history and much more. However, the tool does display statistics for all the runners and there are times when the horse displayed in the potential betting list do Not make it to an actual bet, BUT there may be another horse in the same race that statistically shows a better reason to make a bet. There are times when I will make a decision Not to bet the programs choice and bet another because statistics show this as a better match particularly in this early stage.
What won’t change is telling everyone our actual bets. To make this work, by betting odds to percentages and other variables that impact a bet is I will Not be making a list for everyone to see of what we will bet. There are too many reasons up to post time that play a role in whether or not a bet will be placed or passed. Some of these choices won’t be made until actual post time. What Will happen is we Will post all the potential bets for the following day first, then a post of what Susan has filtered to the best potentials and then the day after each race day a post of everything we actually bet. This is the key to our success since nothing but Zen Racing Stats bets are recorded so then the following day we’ll be able to post what we actually bet as well as the results of these wagers placed.
It would be negligence on my part to post all the potential bets our program pulls up knowing the algorithms not yet integrated in our program which is one of the reasons we are making test bets.
Today we’re posting what we will potentially bet tomorrow and on Monday we will post the results of the bets that we actually made. So it’s here! The day we’ve been waiting for has arrived; Let em roll at the quarter pole day happen to fall on Valentines day 2/14/2021 .
The first screen shot is of all tomorrow’s potential bets for Sunday 2/14 and the second is what I determined potentially betable after culling through the list.
Though I will always determine which ones we actually do bet, during this initial stage we will not be betting all the races on this list. Later once things are refined, refined, refined, then adjusted, adjusted, adjusted, this will change and it is likely we will bet most if not all.
In closing don’t want to forget to let you know that Cox Internet which is our local cable provider is upgrading their internet service and they sent three notices that our internet service Will be interrupted next week and this could happen intermittently from Thursday 2/18 through Monday 2/22. So just in case this interruption happens and I am unable to communicate during this time you’ll know why.
OK, soooo tomorrow 2/14/21 is our Official start date and The Day we Will be letting em roll at the quarter pole thanks to my love; the driving force of our venture, Ed Bain.
P.S. Thought this would be a good place to mention that even though we pass a race, this does not mean that horse won’t win. Just as if we bet a horse to place, that also does not mean that the horse won’t win. Or that what I select for us to bet that the horse I select will win. We have a strategy and a plan to make money on our bets which again can be acquainted to stock investments. You could always have sold the stock for a higher price if you waited or purchased for a lessor price given the same patience however no one in any scenario can always be dead on. What you can do is set into motion a consistent strategy. By setting a routine of precedence at the direction of the statistics we can profit in the long term. In our case where we’ll be adding algorithms as we move through this journey, the eventual outcome will be turning a profit on most of the programs list of potential bets. Then our attention will turn to how much we should bet on each race for the best possible return on our investment.
Good Morning and Happy Valentines Day which I’m officially changing to Let em Roll at the Quarter Pole day from this day forward.
Wanted to touch base briefly before we started to clarify some things that has come to light with the main one being is it OK for You as part of this venture to be able to make your own bets too on these potential selections and the answer to this is absolutely. Though I can not be involved with saying how you should bet them. What I mean by this is a lot of these selections may Not be win bets. I may bet them for us to Place or to Show or to W/P and so on and then when it comes to race time, depending on odds to percentages it’s a good chance that I may pass any of these. And in order to be all the best I can be for our venture I need complete solitude and freedom to bet the way I perceive best and this can not be accomplished with having to be in touch about our bets before, during or after each betting day.
The reason for the non-disclosure is so no partner will show, share, give away or sell any of this information, including the proprietary algorithms however this does not mean that You can not also make your own bets.
After today, when things will make a lot more sense after seeing the potential plays and the results I plan on writing in depth about all this and we’ll use the time during the week when there are not so many bets to look through to fill everyone in as we move forward in this exciting venture.
Wish all of us Good Luck today. I’m certain Ed is with us.
Horse Racing – Stock Trading
Good evening everyone,
Ed wrote the following in his Introduction of his 2001 publication
The 4 + 30 Percentages and Profitability book and though these words were written 20 years ago, the analysis Ed shared regarding the investment of Stocks and Horse Racing essentially remains the same.
Today my partners our Betting Program Version 1 has been released and to Ed and to me this is a day to celebrate. If Ed were here tonight I would be making us either chicken or shrimp parmesan accompanied with several glasses of chianti. These were our favorites and Ed always made me feel so good because he genuinely loved the meals I prepared for us. Our celebration is because we’ve just reached an amazing milestone by releasing our version 1 betting program. Technically this compares to the launch of Apples iPhone 1 though ours is made to be for a select few of 100 total investors where Apples target market was for the world.
This landmark event could have only been accomplishment because of Ed’s understanding that through information you can make a living at the track. And because everyone that has ever backed our ideas, past and present believed in the same.
Because our venture is in its 14 month of its making and version 1 just handed over to us today, I had hoped to have us set up and running test bets by this Saturday 2/13. However, I now see there is much to view and decipher, to get familiar with by looking through the information displayed so I can get enough of an understanding to precisely portray what we have and where we are headed. And for me to accomplish this, I want to set the date we begin our test bets to at the earliest Wednesday 2/17, to the latest Saturday 2/20.
I have several sound reasons for waiting until next Wednesday or Saturday 2/20 to begin, with the first one being I am completely exhausted, wore out to the core and my person is in need of a true break. When we begin it would be best for all of us for me to do so fresh, to be the best that I can possibly be. This will also allow for the time to fill everyone in the particulars that will include the betting program interface and why we will be betting some of the potential bets now and passing some for later.
So like stock investors we too are patient and letting the information guide us as best as it can in decision as well as direction.
Just a few days from letting em roll…………
Susan
Version 1 – Walk Before We Run
As mentioned in the previous post I had to make some tough decisions as to which algorithms had to be included in Version 1 and did the same regarding the interface in order for us to reach initial deployment of our betting program.
In continuance of yesterday’s post description of The Base Structure of Track, Class, Distance, Surface and Field Size using the same analogy with the Track GP, Class MSW, Distance 5 Furlongs, on the Turf Surface in a Field of 10, except this time the algorithm is not specific to Trainer Bill Mott and not specific to Jockey Junior Alvarado, rather an analysis is on all, in other words overall. Meaning every 5 furlong MSW turf race at GP in a 10 horse field is figured for every runner that left the gate and finished the race for every post position, for every MSW purse value (as purse size is the actual indicator of class), for every 5 furlong race on the turf, for every surface condition (like soft, heavy, good, firm), for all field sizes. And all these overall variables are also evaluated through the program where then it is designed to add positive results to a rating or subtract negative ones from the final rating when assigning a rating for each runner in each race. This is essentially a hierarchy where the program code perceives from all the input for each individual race who has the most positives in today’s race to finish 1st, or 2nd or 3rd and all the way through the field.
Then all these variables must be verified and this is one of the reasons why we required a Mathematician.
Using this same GP race conditions for you to see why at this early stage of Version 1 we will be walking, walking and walking more before we run;
Track GP, Class MSW, Distance 5 Furlongs, on the Turf Surface in a Field of 10, first this new algorithm is written not specific to the Trainer nor specific to the Jockey, and we write one asking how pedigree performs; the age this pedigree wins, the distance this pedigree prefers and then when lasix is administered, when bute is, when blinkers are put on, when blinkers are taken off, when the track is good, etc and then when all these variables are calculated overall , the exact same algorithm is written for how each specific trainer performs with this pedigree, how each specific jockey performs with this pedigree, how each jockey-trainer performs with this pedigree, how each jockey, trainer and owner perform with this pedigree, if the owner is the trainer how does the pedigree perform and then from here we run the same base algorithms for age, gender, when a workout is applied, when a workout is within so many days of a race…… This is all the information Ed and I were putting together for the developers all those months that we were quiet. Now I am able to share a personal note of the anxiety I felt because during this time Ed’s health was on a decline and I feared that we would not get all of his brain to the developers before he passed and I know first hand that Ed held on for us. So we could make this happen. He had unmeasurable strength and self discipline like no other.
In addition and included in The Base Structure are Ed’s Layoff, Claim, Debut and Won Last Race stats 🙂 This is our smoking gun so to speak because every algorithm written for every possible present variable in racing like mentioned above is also applied to every one of Ed’s applicable statistics.
Next post will be about the betting programs Interface.
The Needle in the Haystack
Good Morning,
I had to wait until we got to this point where we have the date when version 1 will release and we have your virtual signing of the non-disclosure agreement before I was able to share the following proprietary information with you.
And I am going to start by explaining the base structure of our betting tool and how the algorithms are applied and then how the dynamics change when new algorithms are added and then applied so you will see the direct affect these will have on the best potential bets that the program displays each day.
The Base Structure means everything is separated by Track, Class, Distance, Surface and Field Size. To explain the impact this has on each statistic lets say we have a race today at Gulfstream (GP), in a Maiden Special Weight (MSW), at 5 Furlongs, on the Turf in a 10 horse field and trainer Bill Mott has jockey Junior Alvarado in the irons and over the last 9 years (since our database statistics go back to 2012) this Trainer/Jockey combination had 10 tries at GP in a MSW at 5 furlongs on the Turf in a 10 horse field and they won with 2, placed with 1 and showed with 2, came in 4th once, came in 5th twice, came in 7th once and 9th once.
So the first human thought is, Bill Mott has a huge stable, how can he only have 10 tries? That would be the case if we did not separate out just Gulfstream, if we did not separate out the class of MSW, if we did not separate the distance of 5 furlongs, if we did not separate the surface and if we did not separate the field size. It can get even more refined and will when we add in algorithms like surface condition where the dynamics change again as some horses run better on a soft turf while others hate it. This algorithm may show us this combination once came in 7th because the race was on soft turf. Or it can show us why the 2 wins because perhaps the dynamics worked in favor of a soft turf.
When we offered Ed’s statistics for sale on line, they were focused and track specific and truly the most comprehensive however they were not refined even close to the degree of our betting program. The online stats were offered separated by sprint (7 furlongs and under) and route (7 1/2 furlongs and more) rather than how we factor in this program which we separated by 5 furlong, 5.5 furlong, 6 furlong, etc. The online stats also grouped the class together so all MSW at GP regardless of the purse were grouped together within that statistic. The stats we offered were groundbreaking and so were the players who looked for information before betting on racing because they view their bets as an investment, however even as detailed as the online stats were, Ed still only averaged 1 win out of 4 per day and he spent a lifetime culling through the stats just to find the 4 potentials plays.
We are looking for the needle in the haystack and from 108 racetracks to choose from we’ll have several needles a day. Our goal is to refine, refine, refine to win, win, and win and we’ll accomplish this by betting when the odds line up with the percentages . We may find that we are refining too much and discover too few needles in the haystack so we’ll make adjustments which is something we will always be doing.
There is a lot to share with you now that we’re so close to letting them roll at the quarter pole so I’ll write these posts in segments. It’s just important to Ed and me to be as clear as we possibly can. Sometimes transposing Ed’s brain into legible words can be challenging and can’t always be accomplished with graphics like shared in the previous post. It was when we used to host horse racing seminars in the 90s that my role as Ed’s translator began.
Quick Update
Afternoon everyone. I’ve been speaking with the developers all week and wanted to know the exact date before writing this post.
Our betting tool will be released in versions with each addition an improvement because it will include algorithms that were not in the previous one as well as advancement to the Interface. So in order to avoid anymore delay I made some tough decisions over the last few days about what algorithms had to absolutely be in version 1 and am happy to say that this will be in hand Tuesday 2/9/21.
Just wanted to relay good news and to let everyone know that over the next few days I will be posting quite a few updates so you’ll be in the loop; what to expect, when, along with how things will unfold. 🙂