There are around 35,000 races carded each year and there are 35,000 winners. Won Last Race is a recognizable handicapping factor because of these 35,000 winners.
When a horse wins expert handicapper’s would say that he is at the top of the form cycle.
Then how do you evaluate a horse that just Won his Last Race? Can he repeat or should I pass.
I have four 4-race form cycles in my statistics; the first is Layoffs then Claims, Debut’s and Won Last Race. The patterns that the 4-race form cycle displays is how the trainer produces wins in the form cycle and this can be the reason for a bet.
Some Won Last Race is easy to spot up and then to make a quick decision to pass or bet.
Saturday at Arlington in Race 3 # 2 Jean Elizabeth is 2/5 and she won her last race. She is trained by Larry Rivelli and his stats are 154-47-30% for Won Last Race. Of these 90 were favorites, 40 won for a 44% win rate. This is a 6 horse field and there is not much in the other runners to challenge Larry Rivelli’s Won last Race stat. It is a small field with really low odds and it’s an easy pass.
Some stats are not easy to handicap because of the number of competitors in the same race with the same Won Last Race stat and pattern.
Woodbine Race 6
There are 8 runners and 6 of them Won Their Last Race; Mark Casse has 3 entries and 2 won their last race and Roger Attfield has 2 entries and both won their last race.
1 # Bold Script 5/1 A Stuart Simon Won Last Race stat of 10-3-25% is moving from Maiden Special Weights to Stakes. A good enough stat to add into the exacta. Eurico Da Silva is the jockey.
# 2 Eyeinthesky 9/2 the first of Mark Casse’s three runners and no stats. Gary Boulanger is in the irons. He is one of Mark Casse’s go-to jocks. The horse ran a good work where 84 runners worked 4 furlongs and he was second fastest.
# 3 Si Si Tequilla 5/2 and the morning line favorite. Mark Casse and his go-to jockey Patrick husbands is up in a 6 furlong stakes race. Si Si Tequila won his last race, a Maiden Special Weights race and today he is in a $100,000 stake race. Casse is 194-41-21% and for favorites he is 53-20-37%. Casse and Husbands have a 46% exacta hit rate in sprint races at Woodbine. At 5/2 he is not a clear cut favorite. He will make it into my exacta however, not the key horse.
# 4 Limonia 10/1 and the third Mark Casse runner and his second Won Last Race stat. 194-41-21% 141 were non-favorites, 21 won for 14% hit rate. Florent Geroux is the jockey. He was on Casse’s #2 Eyeinthesky and scored with his Maiden Special Weight win and is now on Limonia. I will pass.
#5 Lady Azalea 6/1 is the first Roger Attfield runner. Attfield on Won Last Race is 20-6-30%. Emma-Jayne Wilson is up and with Attfield she is 69-8-11%. A jockey switch from Rafael Hernandez and a pass.
#6 Stifling 8/1 the trainer W. Bourke is retuning the horse from a layoff on Lay 1 Sprint. Bourke is 49-5-10% for his non favorites on Won last Race. Bourke races mostly at Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania and Thistledown in Ohio. I’ll pass.
#7 Charmaine’s Mia 20/1 and Trainer Michael McDonald owns and train’s the horse. On Won Last Race in sprints he is 6-0. Steve Bahen is the jockey. He is 37-5-13% with McDonald, a pass.
#8 My Gal Betty is 3/1 and the second Roger Attfield entry who Won Last race with a record of 20-6-30%. He is retuning from a layoff in sprint races and at Woodbine Attfield is 37-6-16%. 7 were stakes races and he won 2 for a 28% hit rate with his Lay 1 Sprint stats. There is nothing in his works to indicate a big race. Rafael Hernandez is the jockey with Attfield where he is 135-34-25% at Woodbine in sprint races. Rafael Hernadez had his choice from three runners and he chose My Gal Betty. He is 2 for 2 with her and she won a $100,000 stake race last out. My Gal Betty is my key horse in the exacta. This is Attfield’s 4-race form cycle percentages 30% 10% 25% 9%. I’ll go with 30%.
About 35,000 races are carded each year and produce 35,000 winners. I am constantly handicapping Won Last Race. It is the only stat that I track that starts the count on a win for the trainer’s results. The most difficult stat for me to bet is Won Last Race. The reason is that is the first filter I apply to eliminate horses and it has been a filter for around 25 years and why it is difficult for me to change and bet.
I have a play to bet horses that Won Last Race. The trainer has a good young well bred horse that he laid off on a win to take advantage of a stakes race and have his horse fresh and he is entered today. That trainer play is one of my best bets and I look for it constantly; Won Last Race and the horse is on their first race after a Layoff (Lay 1). It’s handicapping.
Many players coach their handicapping by saying there are many nuances to handicapping. Nuances definition is a subtle difference in or a shade of meaning. I shake my head at nuances. Statistics are as big as you can get to understand what to bet and why to place the bet. Predictions are usually made from hunches or information not readily available to the public. Why bet on a nuance or a prediction when statistics are available to bet with. Maybe in the near future horse racing will change from this archaic approach of speed only, nuances and hunches.
Arlington Race 3, #2 Jean Elizabeth won and paid $2.20 to win. I did not play this. I felt the odds were to low so I passed.
Woodbine Race 6, #8 My Gal Betty Morning Line of 3/1 won at 5/2 and paid $7. The longest shot on the board came in second and the exacta paid $161.50.
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