YOUTUBE AND HANDICAPPING

I went to YouTube and typed in “Horse Racing Handicapping Statistics” and an amazing amount of videos came up, all with the same corresponding handicapping language. I was not looking for anything in particular. I was just looking for a video that would catch my interest. I did not view any video that had the word system in it or any that had hype words like guarantee or purchase my product on Wednesday and on Saturday you will be on a vacation in Paris.

The word used often was angles. Applying your angles and finding live long shots or certain angles with a big price was a popular expression. That was about it for angles. Some videos would mention 2nd after a layoff as an angle however, no stats were given. They did mention patterns. They said this horse has a good form pattern and the jockey has been on this horse the last five races. None mentioned or identified where the form cycle started or ends or the jockey-trainer hit rate. Some players tried to help by saying what they believe was important by what to circle on the Racing Form.

Many videos were from the United Kingdom. Most were not players but services selling stuff to handicappers. I have to say some were very well produced by showing results with a contested finish. They supplied flash and optics to their products and they had some of the best music to get you in the mood to be interested in their product.

The U.S. videos did not have as much flash and style. They consisted mostly of players explaining their products in the videos, products showing mostly the big three. Then there were some handicappers who have descent product knowledge on the Racing Form who wanted to help by explaining what they had learned and what was important to handicap.

It’s the players that were trying to help with their handicapping knowledge and trying to pass that knowledge to any one who will listen that can be sort of interesting. I did get some videos. One was a good short video named Probability vs. Odds. This proves there are many levels to handicapping; the angle guys end up perpetuating the same style of handicapping techniques as the pattern guys. Patterns were discussed without the aid of statistics. The same issue with angles. I do not know how you can explain either of these without statistics. My key word on my query was statistics.

The Racing Form had some hour and longer shows. I liked what Formulator is about and how they used it although; they did miss the most important handicapping starting point, track specific information. Their videos are really long. One talked about trainer stats. He discussed stats on trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He said he pulled up Kiaran stats at all tracks and then removed New York and Gulfstream Park where McLaughlin primarily races. McLaughlin was 96-4 everywhere else. The player who found that stat bet into these 4 winners for other reasons, probably speed because speed is one dimensional once they find the fastest horse that is the bet. Speed players do not need any other information. He ignored the 92 from 96 races that lost. He did not understand that he had found the big important statistic to make a decision with which was to pass the bet. I shook my head at that move. 92 losers and he still bet Kiarans horse.

The biggest take away for me on their videos is none rounded out the statistic with its corresponding percentage, like the trainer’s current record is 53-13 and then no percentage. The 53-13 stat made me feel like it was a negative to them. 24% is a great hit rate and this hit rate puts this trainer in the elite class. On small sample size they said things like they need big samples because small samples rely on a leap of faith.

One reason it is hard for the players in these videos to improve a handicappers game is because percentages are not used and are rarely mentioned. The handicappers repeat the numbers not the percentages because the information does not include the percentage. To me it’s as important as the number of races and the number of wins and then the percentage has to be part of understanding what you are looking at. If the expert playing McLaughlin’s stat had the percentage listed like this 96-4-4% win rate, he may have had a more intuitive understanding of statistics and win rate. Without the percentages they miss a crucial visual to handicap by eliminating horses through a negative statistic. This is as important as betting a horse with a positive percentage statistic.

Dave Schwartz is a very knowledgeable handicapper and had some interesting videos on Improving Your Game: Horse Racing Math. He uses math, money or percentages in his videos and they are short and easy to understand.

In the search bar I typed in Horse racing speed and YouTube came up with hour after hour, video after video of speed handicapping. If I was a new player I would probably be influenced with this volume of videos and become a speed player. It seems that all speed players believe that speed is the truth the light and the way. It took a few years of going to the track before I became a serious player with speed and then I made my own speed figs. I am fortunate because that one year I tracked my bets and speed did not make the cut. I lost money. I bailed out of playing speed and developed trainer statistics and it was the best thing I ever did in my life of betting on the horses.

I would never advise a player not to try speed or statistics. What works for some may not work for others. With experience you may come up with the better mouse trap to bet with.

Betting is about your personal decisions with what information you have. Handicapping is labor intensive; finding things that work for each player means they are determined to find something that works for their approach or add into their handicapping regime. Handicapping this way means we are not a lazy bunch. You could say we are ruthless, competitive and prefer caffeine.  I mostly liked the YouTube videos on statistical handicapping. I could see where it could help or hinder someone trying to figure out how to bet on the horses. The best teacher in life is experience.
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edbain.com News
Re: The online statistics on my website edbain.com
The database is only publishing some races and some tracks and not all so the programmer is still trying to locate the issue. The database is massive and updates daily and sometimes something happens to one part and it affects the whole and the programmers has to go through each calculation to find where this is in order to correct it.  This is a tedious as well as costly task. I am unable to say when we’ll be fully back up and running, it could be today or it could be another week. As a player who uses my statistics I understand the inconvience this issue has caused and I appreciate everyones patience regarding this.  To all current subscribers, you’re welcome to view the races that are currently showing. Please know we will be adding all this down time back into your subscription.
The same applies to anyone who purchases a new subscription.
edbain.com PPs You will be able to view the stats that are posting now though your subscription won’t actually begin until all the races are posting.
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