The odds we bet are a percentage. You will not see odds by percentage on the tote board. The board lists 8/5 as the odds.
My approach to betting is a key horse bet for the exacta. The key horse that I bet can come in first or second. I apply odds to percentages to know when to bet or when to pass.
The Daily Racing form lists decimal odds, not tote board odds. 8/5 odds in the Form would be listed as 1.60. There are two more things that go with odds; the payout of 8/5 pays $5.20 and the percentage of 8/5 is a 38% win rate.
I do not set odds on my bets. The percentage on the trainer or jockey-trainer tells me what that trainers odds are so I can determine if I want to place a bet.
I also use odds to pass bets. If a trainer has a 40% exacta stat (where he finishes 1st or 2nd 40% of the time with this stat) this 40% means his odds are 3/2.
If the horse is on the board at 3/1, a 25% hit rate and drops 7 odds level’s to 7/5 which is a 42% strike rate, he can still be a play only if his odds are above 7/5. I pass if he is 7/5 or lower at post time.
Equating odds to their percentages makes passing races easy for two reasons; I avoid low paying exactas. And I avoid the emotions that are there when they hit and I lose money on an underlay. Betting underlays will break every handicapper.
To me any odds level that demands a 50% hit rate or more is an automatic pass. That would be lowest paying from even money to 1/10 seven odds levels.
This chart shows the 4 elements and how to bet and pass based on a percentage.
My Bet today is at Aqueduct Race 3 #7 Horse Ballard High 5/2. On Debut 1 Sprint Linda Rice has went to post with 117 first time starters, she hit the exacta with 28, a 23% exacta hit rate. Linda Rice is a give em a race on their first start to see what she has in the horse and on Debut 2 sprint she is 82-46-56%.
Just completed a New Jockey-Trainer Exacta Report this week for the Illinois Circuit which includes Hawthorne (opening day 3/30) and Arlington Park.
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The 12 Jockey-Trainer Exacta Reports are available in pdf for immediate download upon purchase OR in book form which takes about 10 business days to deliver are:
New York Circuit: (Includes Aqueduct –Belmont -Saratoga)
Southern California Circuit: (Includes Del Mar-LRC-Santa Anita)
Kentucky Circuit: (Includes Churchill, Keeneland, Ellis, Turfway)
Illinois Circuit (Includes Arlington Park and Hawthorne)