How Do The Bettors Bet at Del Mar

Del Mar Race Track

16,192 runners went to post at Del Mar over the past 4 years and we placed bets on every one of them. 1,909 won for a 12% win rate. I can see how the crowd bet by odds over the past four years at Del Mar.

Here is how the horse players won and cashed starting at even money 1/1.

1/1 odds 138 – 68-49% win rate       1/1 percentage 50%

6/5 odds 177 –  58-33% win rate       6/5 percentage 45%

7/5 odds  81  –  18-22% win rate       7/5 percentage 42%

3/2 odds 183 – 64-35% win rate       3/2 percentage 40%

8/5 odds 206 – 73-35% win rate        8/5 percentage 38%

9/5 odds 205 – 51- 25% win rate       9/5 percentage 36%

2/1 odds 682 – 175 -26% win rate     2/1 percentage 33%

5/2 odds 685 – 161-25% win rate      5/2 percentage 29%

3/1 odds 672 – 147-22% win rate     3/1 percentage 25%

7/2 odds 647 – 135-21% win rate      7/2 percentage 22%

4/1 odds 623 –  99-16% win rate       4/1 percentage 20%

9/2 odds 496 – 73-15% win rate        9/2 percentage 18%

5/1 odds 979 – 125–13% win rate     5/1 percentage 17%

6/1 odds 842 –  89-11% win rate       6/1 percentage 14%

7/1 odds 727 –  68-9% win rate         7/1 percentage 13%

8/1 odds 657 –  53-8% win rate         8/1 percentage 11%

9/1 odds 585 –  64-11% win rate       9/1 percentage 10%

10/1 odds 553– 39-7% win rate         10/1 percentage 9%

The way it reads is 1/1 odds had 138 starters. 68 won for a 49% win rate. 1/1 has an actual win rate percentage of 50% that means half the money in the pool is on the 1/1 or even money horse.

The favorite at Del Mar went 1,896-607-32% and this leaves 1,302 non favorites who won at a 9% win rate. 32% is a good win rate for all favorites and 1,302 non favorites is also a pretty large number. The way I handle the statistics is by odds.  What are my percentages on winning with statistics which are odds?

The odds levels are separated by the number or runners and the number of winners for each odds level. 4/5 and down is a total of six odds levels. These went 258–138-53%. These six odds levels are difficult to get a decent exacta payout because 6/5-7/5-3/2 favorites went 441-139-32%. These odds levels under perform to their hit rate percentage; 6/5 has a 45% win rate, 7/5 has 42% and 3/2 has 40%.

The loss rate percentages of 12% then 20% and then 5% is a stretch to bet in the exacta with these kind of stats. The crowd stats on 6/5 loses 12% to par and 7/5 loses 20% to par. This is the graveyard of favorites at Del Mar. 6/5 and 7/5 are the only odds levels that have a double digit loss rate compared to par. All the other odds are within reach; even money is 49%, one point from par. This is impressive as 50% is a magical number to me.  Being in the exacta half the races is a real betting advantage.

Another advantage is knowing how 6/5 and 7/5 percentages win at Del Mar. These odds are not to be feared as a favorite. I do not need to include them in the exacta.

After a time all experienced players find out where they cash by odds with decent exacta payouts. My wheelhouse is around 2/1, 5/2, 3/1 and 7/2 and this corresponds to the most wins by the crowds at Del Mar.  On average per year these four odds levels produce 671 starters and 155 winners. The crowd will cash about one out of every four bets. This brings a smile to me. I am betting into a known hit rate of about 1 out every 4.

2/1 odds are really good exacta bets. The reason is 2/1 favorites is a value play. The next four betting favorites can be 7/2, 6/1, 8/1, 12/1 and you can see the odds the crowd supplies to fill the exacta. From the 682 2/1 runners 412 went off as the favorite,106 won for 26% win rate and 75 placed for an exacta hit rate of 44%.  This is also the value side of an exacta, picking up the chance to cash at an 18% place rate.

The poor win rate for 6/5 and 7/5 was something I did not expect from the crowd. Only a win percentage can tell me that the 6/5 odds is 45% however, the results of 6/5 is 33% which is 2/1. 7/5 results are 22% which is the hit rate of 7/2.  These two odds levels are under lays by the crowd.  Actually I was a little surprised at how good the crowd is betting with 2/1 and 5/2 even though 2/1 missed by eight points and 5/2 by four. These two odds levels supply a 1 out of 4 hit rate.

The results of the crowd betting on Del Mar horses are interesting and supply context to odds. All odds are a percentage of the betting pools.
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