HAWTHORNE OPENING DAY


Hawthorne opened Yesterday. My opening day is today, Saturday.

My site had to go down for maintenance so I do not have the use of my trainer statistics however, I have Hawthorne’s Jockey Trainer exacta report so I will handicap with these jockey trainer statistics.

Hawthorne has 8 races with 68 entries. I have 26 jockey trainer stats to look at which is a really small amount of stats for a Saturday. Over the past four years at Hawthorne there were 94 jockeys who hit the exacta. Hawthorne is a very competitive circuit. Just getting a mount is a goal for most jockeys. The top 10 jocks at any track are truly talented because there are about 84 more jockeys willing to take their business from them if they have more talent.

Hawthorne:

Race 1

#1 Kim Dandy is 6/5.  C. Marquez and M. Reavis are 15-7-46% in the exacta. This is an OK stat. A six horse field and low odds. The exacta could be under $10 bucks so I will pass.

Race 3
#3 Shanghai Red is the 6/5 favorite. Jockey O. Hernandez with trainer R. Martinez is 7-2-29%. Nothing in the stat is a lead to a bet. When I have a race with small stats or no stats I try to evaluate the trainer’s thoughts of this horse by how all trainers perform with this jockey along with how many trainers gave this jockey an exacta. O. Hernandez is a very good jockey.  21 trainers gave him a chance and he hit the exacta with 18. All of these trainers were trying to win and this stat tells me that the trainers at Hawthorne think O. Hernandez is a very good jockey.

The # 1 horse Malachite has jockey V. Balilon with trainer J. Morsello. With no races at Hawthorne from these two I looked at how many trainers gave Balilon a chance at the exacta. 15 trainers produced 7 different trainer exactas. I think the trainers are not sure of this jockey. They are giving him longshots. He rode no favorites. The stat tells me he can ride and is the type of jockey who could blow up the tote board. If trainers see that Balilon has talent they will give him more competitive horses and with a little luck a big outfit may give him runners and he has the chance to break into the top 10 jockeys at Hawthorne.

In this race there are two jocks in an all out struggle to catch on.

The other jockey is on the # 6 horse Golden Pattern. Jockey F. Giles has no races with trainer R. Martinez. 13 trainers have produced 7 different exactas. Giles has the same obstacle to overcome as Balilon and I see the same issue taking mounts with really big odds. Both of these jockeys are on 20/1 shots today in a seven horse field. I’m a percentage player and the percentages say the exacta will come from the remaining five runners.

The five remaining jockeys are statistically the best in the race;
Lopez has ridden for 20 trainers and been in the exacta with 18.
Hernandez has ridden for 21 trainers and 19 hit the exacta.
Ulloa has ridden for 33 trainers and hit the exacta for 29.
Perez has ridden for 65 trainers and 55 different trainers were in the exacta.

Evaluating the ability of the jockeys trying to get more mounts through the trainer is an art.  I admit that.

Odds are the problem for the # 1 at 6/5.  For me he can not be a key horse.

#5 The Last Profit has morning line odds of 6/1. D. Velazquez is riding for trainer J. Berndt and has 69-25-42% exacta hit rate. A go to jockey trainer stat at 6/1. He is on the far side as a contender. 7/1 is a longshot bet to me. A go-to jockey and 6/1 is good enough for me.

The #5 horse The Last Profit is a key horse is for me in an exacta bet.

# 7 Iker has a morning line of 2/1. E. Perez is riding for trainer B. Rainwater and they are 39-17-44% in the exacta.

There are many seven horse fields in horse racing.  It is one of my favorite bets.  Try to concentrate as much cash as I can on a key horse and two fillers and hit multiple times.  I’ll stick with this approach even though I don’t have my trainer stats to confirm if this is a good bet.  My routine of finding plays in seven horse fields is the same if I did have my trainer stats available. These are the three jockey trainer stats in the race.

My Bet is an exacta 5 with 3-7 then 3-7-with the 5.

Race 7
#4 horse Partay has a morning line of 5/2. Jose Valdivia is riding for trainer C. Silva.  The stats I have for this jockey-trainer combination is 1-1-100%. Valdivia races at Arlington. A top jockey there at Arlington, at Hawthorne, Valdivia has raced with only three trainers though he has hit the exacta with all three. I’ll have him as a filler for the exacta.

# 6 horse Acrobatic Ally has a morning line of 9/2. C. Emigh is riding for trainer S. Becker and the stats I have for this jockey-trainer combination is 157-64-41%.

# 7 horse Suz has a morning line of 5/1. Jockey V. Santiago is riding for trainer S. Becker and this jockey-trainer exacta hit rate is 126-60-48%. Scott Becker has two runners in this race and two go to jockey’s. C. Emigh is his top jockey. I’ll key him.

My key horse exacta bet is 6 with 4-7 then 4-7 with the 6.

Jockey trainer statistics are a simple approach find the go-to jockey trainer stat and bet it.
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