Handicapping Trainer Karl Broberg

Karl Broberg

Karl Broberg is a handicapper turned trainer who manages to win just about everywhere. He was a groom for a short time when he was younger. He left the backstretch to start work in advertising with End Zone Athletics. This is also the name of his stable. Broberg’s success allowed him to get into racing as an owner. Horse playing is what he loves and handicapping is the fuel for his love. I know the feeling.

Broberg walks the walk and talks the talk. He leads the country in wins most years his stable is really large over 150 horses. My database has his last 4,587 races where he produced 1,165 wins 25%, 816 seconds 18% place rate and an exacta strike rate of 43%. End Zone Athletics had 1,927 of these races, 506 wins 26%, 336 seconds 17% place rate and an exacta hit rate of 42%. 42% of his races Karl Broberg owned the horse.

Broberg originally had all his runners with John Lock who wanted to take some time off from training so Broberg took over as the trainer. This made sense. He owned all the horses in the barn. Lone Star in Texas is Broberg’s home track. He has five tracks where he has went to post at least 476 times; Lone Star 559 starts, Delta 916 races, Evangeline 663 starts, Prairie Meadows 506 races and at Remington 476 starts. His goal is to have 200 or more horses in his barn.

Karl is a prolific claiming trainer. He has claimed 524 sprinters, 148 won, 84 placed a 28% win rate 16% for place for an exacta strike rate of 44%. Broberg claimed 313 of these sprinters for himself. He won with 85 for a 27% win rate and 50 placed for a 16% place rate and an exacta hit rate of 43%. 60% of his sprint claims were for himself.

Broberg claimed more horses than he has layed off, 360. He is good off the layoff. He was in the exacta 145 times for a 40% hit rate.

He claimed 253 routers, won with 68 for a 26% win rate, 42 placed for a 17% place rate and an exacta hit rate of 43%.

Broberg states he claims every horse with a future race in mind. He says he is a horse player and he approaches training and claiming horses with the mentality of a horse playing handicapper. Not all horse players are handicappers and all handicappers are not created equal. He says if his $10,000 claim does not run well he runs them where they fit, a $4,000 claiming race.

With a big win rate comes all the references to cheating without accusing him of cheating. It seems that all claiming trainers who can produce go through that disapproval from the talking heads in racing and it catches on with the handicappers. Maybe some deserve it and maybe some do not.

Karl Broberg has only minor violations. The most common is too much Bute, an anti inflammatory drug that has short term effects for treatment of pain and fever. Many claiming trainers load up with massive doses of Bute when they run the horse they claimed. The reason is Bute lasts for just about 4 or 5 hours.

Broberg does not have to apologize or defend his nearly 30% win rate because I do not think 30% is a number that needs to be defended. I think he has an advantage with his handicapping. He is aggressive with his placements of his claimed horse and is unafraid of horses getting claimed away at bargain prices.

I bet on the people in racing and cash bets and make money from them. Every bet I make is on the trainer and jockey. I would never find fault with the people that send me to the bank because they are really good handicappers. I too have had a 30% win rate and no ever accused me of cheating.

I track statistics to place bets with and I am not concerned with his win rate. My belief is if any trainer is cheating it will probably show up in a stat and if he is I will bet with him.

Evangeline downs in Louisiana opened on the 4th of April. Karl Broberg has 663 starts and he has been in 355 exactas for a 53% strike rate over the last 5 years.

Karl Broberg is a handicapper. He studies the Racing Form. It is not only about speed. It is also about the trainer he claims from as well as the owners who had the horse. Who is on the horse as well as the nuances of handicapping all the data in the Racing Form like equipment changes and a hundred other things. Do I think Karl Broberg can find an advantage to claim horses through his handicapping and hit at a very high hit rate? The answer is, Yes I think he can.

Karl Broberg has four entries today at Evangeline. I have a bet in Race 4, #6 Slick Rules who is a claim 2 in a sprint race. At Evangeline Broberg had 81 claim 2 sprints and he has been in the exacta with 46 for a 56% exacta hit rate.

Count Down:

Finger Lakes opens in 14 days on 4/21 where I’ll be looking at “The Doozy” stats for Chris Englehart

Woodbine opens in 14 days on 4/21 where I’ll be looking at the go-to stats for trainer Mark Casse

edbain.com news:
The online stats are back up. We have several specials for these and the jockey-trainer exacta reports at the following link:  edbain.com/order

and

We just completed the Jockey-Trainer Report for the Louisiana circuit. We now offer 14 Jockey-Trainer Exacta Reports. (The tracks in bold font below are the tracks that are open now).

New York (Aqueduct-Belmont-Saratoga)
Southern California (Delmar-LRC-Santa Anita),
Kentucky (Churchill-Ellis-Keeneland-Turfway),
Parx
Laurel
Tampa
Gulfstream
Golden Gate

Illinois (Arlington-Hawthorne)
Louisiana (Delta-Evangeline-Fair Grounds -Louisiana)
Finger Lakes (opens 4/21)
Monmouth (opens 5/5)
Texas (Lone Star (opens 4/19) – Houston-Retama)
Woodbine (opens 4/21)

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