The Odds

The odds we bet are a percentage. You will not see odds by percentage on the tote board. The board lists 8/5 as the odds.

My approach to betting is a key horse bet for the exacta. The key horse that I bet can come in first or second. I apply odds to percentages to know when to bet or when to pass.

The Daily Racing form lists decimal odds, not tote board odds.  8/5 odds in the Form would be listed as 1.60. There are two more things that go with odds; the payout of 8/5 pays $5.20 and the percentage of 8/5 is a 38% win rate.

Anyone who would like a copy of this Odds % Table send a note to edbain@edbain.com

I do not set odds on my bets. The percentage on the trainer or jockey-trainer tells me what that trainers odds are so I can determine if I want to place a bet.

I also use odds to pass bets. If a trainer has a 40% exacta stat (where he finishes 1st or 2nd 40% of the time with this stat) this 40% means his odds are 3/2.

If the horse is on the board at 3/1, a 25% hit rate and drops 7 odds level’s to 7/5 which is a 42% strike rate, he can still be a play only if his odds are above 7/5. I pass if he is 7/5 or lower at post time.

Equating odds to their percentages makes passing races easy for two reasons; I avoid low paying exactas. And I avoid the emotions that are there when they hit and I lose money on an underlay. Betting underlays will break every handicapper.

To me any odds level that demands a 50% hit rate or more is an automatic pass.  That would be lowest paying from even money to 1/10 seven odds levels.

This chart shows the 4 elements and how to bet and pass based on a percentage.

Odds
Decimal odds
Percentage
Pay Out
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My Bet today is at Aqueduct Race 3 #7 Horse Ballard High 5/2.  On Debut 1 Sprint Linda Rice has went to post with 117 first time starters, she hit the exacta with 28, a 23% exacta hit rate.  Linda Rice is a give em a race on their first start to see what she has in the horse and on Debut 2 sprint she is 82-46-56%.
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Just completed a New Jockey-Trainer Exacta Report this week for the Illinois Circuit which includes Hawthorne (opening day 3/30) and Arlington Park.
Today thru Monday 3/26 Save 15% site wide on all Ed Bain publications by entering Coupon Code 15OFF upon checkout in our Book Store
The 12 Jockey-Trainer Exacta Reports are available in pdf for immediate download upon purchase OR in book form which takes about 10 business days to deliver are:

New York Circuit: (Includes Aqueduct –Belmont -Saratoga)
Southern California Circuit: (Includes Del Mar-LRC-Santa Anita)
Kentucky Circuit: (Includes Churchill, Keeneland, Ellis, Turfway)
Finger Lakes
Gulfstream
Golden Gate
Illinois Circuit (Includes Arlington Park and Hawthorne)
Laurel
Tampa
Monmouth
Parx
Woodbine

Jose Flores

   

A tragedy happened at Parx racetrack in Philadelphia.  I’ve made many bets and I’ve cashed many bets with Jose in the irons.  I will always remember his warm smile. I will miss him.

Finger Lakes Doozy

Trainer Chris Englehart

A horseplayer from Buffalo asked me to do a jockey trainer exacta report for Finger Lakes, a track I do not play though after seeing these stats, I will from now on.

As I complete this report for each track there are always big numbers on jockey trainers that make me say I have to include these when I look for bets to make more plays. Finger Lakes has a doozy of a stat. This stat is so big that I can not believe I never knew about it. Percentages like this validate my belief that statistics will supply consistency for a key horse exacta bet.

Once I know a Jockey/Trainer stat hits at a big percentage I can get a hit rate on my selections and find out what my cash rate is.

Chris Englehart was born down the road from Finger Lakes racetrack. He became a trainer in 1973. Chris has won 15 training titles at Finger Lakes, winning 13 training titles in a row.  His brother Steve is also a trainer. Over the years Chris had 6 children and all are in racing one way or another. His sons Jeremiah and Jeffrey Englehart are also trainers. Jeremiah broke his father’s training title streak in 2016 when he won the title of top trainer at Finger Lakes.

Over the last 4 years Chris Englehart with Jockey John Davila Jr. has 819 sprint races and hit 419 exactas for a 51% hit rate. This is a doozy of a stat. In routes John Davila Jr. and Chris Englehart are 367-178-49%.  What a head shaker.

Combined sprint and route jockey-trainer exacta statistics with Davila and Chris Englehart, these two went to post 1,186 times, hit the exacta with 597 for a 50% exacta hit rate.

His son Jeremiah and jockey John Davila Jr. in sprits are 175-107-61% and for routes 117-68-58%. Combined this duo has 292-175-60% exacta hit rate.

Chris’s son Jeffrey and John Davila Jr. in sprints had 77 races, hit 41 exactas for a 53% hit rate. In routes Jeffrey went 41-14-45%.

Combined Chris and his two sons had 1,586 races, hit 830 exactas 52% exacta hit rate. Oh man how many days to opening day at Finger Lakes, 36. The countdown begins.

There are 104 racing days at Finger Lakes. On average the three Englehart’s and jockey John Davila Jr. race about 396 times a year, that’s about four races a day. Chris and his sons hit 830 exactas in 4 years, 207 exactas a season. I have never seen a jockey trainer stat that produces four races a day and two exactas. That is a slow moving tsunami doozy.

Doozy in 1903 meant stylish or splendid. In 2017 the definition of doozy is something outstanding or unique of its time. This is the description I would use for this family of horse racing trainers and one jockey John Davila Jr. Chris, Jeremiah and Jeffrey Englehart.

Buffalo gets a doozy of a snowstorm every winter and in the spring we get another doozy at Finger Lakes; Cashing on two exactas per day at a meet that lasts 104 racing days.

That is a daily doozy.  Finger Lakes opens Saturday April 21. I will have a front row seat on opening day and I am sure I will have a doozy of a betting day!
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My Bet today:
No bet today.  Made a mistake.  I was looking at my PPs for the wrong date. 

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edbain.com News
This week Ed just completed the 
  Jockey-Trainer Exacta Reports
for Finger Lakes and Golden Gate. These are offered in book form Or immediate download in pdf. Save 15% this weekend on all Ed Bain publications by entering Coupon Code: 15OFF upon checkout.
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For the players who want edbain.com online Past Performances this weekend we have several specials that include Jockey-Trainer Exacta Reports and we even have one special where you can access all this information now with 1/2 down and balance paid in 6 months at the following link: http://edbain.com/order

 

 

Linda Rice and 99 Days at Aqueduct



Linda Rice is the daughter of trainer Clyde Rice who raced and trained a very large 100 horse stable. Linda has two brothers that were jockeys. Linda was breaking horses at a young age and at 9 she handicapped races with The Daily Racing Form. She does not bet.

Linda Rice loves horses and has gone through her entire life working with them.  When her horses are not racing any more she makes sure they have a good home. Linda’s 1000th win was a horse owned by her father.

Today she manages a stable of 50 to 60 horses. Linda Rice had all 4 placing for the Superfecta in a race at Saratoga and the super paid $3,490. Maybe that’s a record. Linda is a Yankee fan. When former Yankee manager Joe Torres was a player he once hit into 4 consecutive inning ending double plays. That is a record.

The past 4 years Linda sent 1,774 horses to post and 695 hit the exacta for a 39% hit rate. She had 877 of these races at Aqueduct, hit 377 exactas for a 43% hit rate.  At Belmont she went 671-145-22% and Saratoga 226-74-33%.

Rice is an Aqueduct specialist. She plans her Aqueduct season long before opening day. Her background allows her to line up her stable for this track.

Here are some really good Linda Rice stats from these 877 races;

1 mile distance on the dirt she has a total 186 races run in New York. At Aqueduct she has had 46 of these races at 1 mile in 99 days.  That’s a race about every other day. She hit 20 for a 43% strike rate. I believe that Linda Rice is a miler and that may be why she is so good at sprints.

At 6 furlongs she went 359-148-41%. 59 of these races the track was muddy or sloppy and she went 59-21-36%.  Linda Rice is also a mudder.

257 of Linda Rice trained horses went to post as the favorite. 161 hit for a 66% strike rate in the exacta.

In stakes races Linda is 58-22-38% at Aqueduct.

In Maiden Special Weights Rice is 133-52-38%.

In Maiden Claims she is 169-84-50%.

Maiden Special Weight dropping to Maiden Claim, the biggest drop in racing, Rice is a very good betting play.

Linda is a claiming trainer. On claim 1 at Aqueduct her numbers are 59-32-54%.

She is a layoff trainer. On 1st after a layoff at Aqueduct Linda is 141-66-47%.

Linda is a debut trainer, only it’s the second race, debut 2. She went 50-36-72%.

These 877 races were over 4 years.  That is about 220 races per season. Aqueduct has a 99 day meet. Linda averages just over 2 races a day to bet from at Aqueduct. Cashing above 25% on one trainer has permitted me to benefit from her life experience with horses and managing a big stable. Combine her intent with her statistics is handicapping.

When so many stats on a trainer are good in every category, I then look for odds to tell me what to bet.

I separated her races by odds:

4/5 and down is an odds on favorite. 70 went to post, 53 were in the exacta for a 75% hit rate.  Sounds good however, the low payout also has a low exacta payout for the 70 favorites averaged out to a 1-2 shot that would pay $3 for a $2 bet.  Most exactas will be well under $10. Value is not in low paying favorites however, if you bet and cash on a mistake it is called an overlay.

I then separated her odds by even money to 3/2.  That would be $4 payout for even money or a $5 payout for 3/2.  89 raced, 48 hit for a 54% strike rate.  Still good however, this odds level has the same problem as the odds on horses, low payouts. If you bet for a living you have to understand value. With these odds the exacta has a suppressed payout and offers little value for most exacta bets. Though you can make a mistake and with a 54% hit rate you can cash on a mistake, a mistake is an over bet horse. Value can be a long shot. The problem with longshots is there strike rate and can you handicap into that strike rate to produce a hit. Value can be 25% hit 1 bet from every 4.

From 8/5 9/5 2/1 and 5/2 Linda Rice sent 228 runners to post with these odds and 111 hit for a 47% exacta. This odds level supplies a number of things. Almost a hit every other race as well as exacta value. Many of these runners will be favored and still get higher paying exactas; from around $20 to $60 payouts.

I have a play I look for with every trainer 3/1. Linda sent 64 horses to post at Aqueduct and hit with 25 for a 39% strike rate. With this odds level and 8/5 to 5/2 I can get the stats close to a play a day to analyze. With her over all very impressive hit rate on just about everything I could add in every Maiden Claim runner to analyze to handicap more plays.

7/2 to 6/1 went to post 227 times, hit 79 for a 35% hit rate.  This odds level is really good for a longshot exacta payout. 7/2 pays $9 and that is normally the 3rd or 4th betting choice to the players. I do make plays from this odds level.

At 7/1 Linda went 193-39-20%. This odds level Linda Rice has to tell me to bet. On claim 1 if Linda claimed a horse for $25,000 and put her horse into a $250,000 stakes race and her odds are 40/1, she is a bet. She knows her horse is ready to run his best race and maybe hit this race. If she does not score I will wait for her next longshot.

Linda Rice has been around large barns all her racing life and she knows and understands the logistics of a large stable.  To be able to manage a stable this size for the Aqueduct meet is like running a large company. She has won $65.7 million.

Rice may not bet however, she is the best bet in racing. I have been betting and cashing on her runners since 1995 and have cashed for 6 figures betting on her numbers.

Linda Rice performs this year after year at Aqueduct and year after year I get out of the Aqueduct starting gate with her.
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I have two Linda Rice plays today at Aqueduct:

Race 2: The #1A, Micozzi, 3/1 odds 64-25-39%.  The race is an entry.  She has two horses for the price of one.  The #1 horse, Acoustic, claim 1 in a route 27-18-66%.  Linda Rice claimed the horse for herself.

Race 9: The #6, Do Share, 4/1 odds is on Lay 1 sprint 79-37-48%
___________
We now have 10 Jockey-Trainer Exacta Reports Completed.
And
These are now offered in pdf for immediate download or made to order in book publication.

10 Reports offered:
New York Circuit: (Includes Aqu-Bel-Sar)
Southern California Circuit: (Includes DMR-LRC-SA)
Kentucky Circuit: (Includes CD, KEE, ELP, TP)
Gulfstream
Golden Gate
Laurel
Tampa
Monmouth
Parx
Woodbine

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Chad Brown Claimed Away

Trainer Chad Brown with Jockey Javier Castellano

Chad Brown studied animal science at Cornell University.

At 19 Shug McGaughey hired Brown. He worked with Dr. Steve Aliday focusing on lameness work. As a teenager he knew he wanted to be a horse trainer and he knew it’s about the horse’s legs and digestive system. He moved to Bobby Frankel’s barn and was with him for 5 ½ years. Brown started his own stable with 10 horses, one was claimed away and that left him with 9. This would be a reacquiring thing with Chad Brown horses getting claimed away.

Over the last 4 years Chad Brown had 2,446 races at Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga in New York 1,066 hit the exacta for a 45% hit rate.

Brown is known for turf and exceptional work with fillies and mares. Chad Brown has loyalty to one jockey at Gulfstream Javier Castellano. At Gulfstream Chad Brown has raced 456 times, hit the exacta 183 times for a 40% strike rate. With Castellano in the irons they had 175 races at Gulfstream and 84 exactas for a 48% hit rate. It’s a given that these two are really good on the turf.

Over the past 4 years Chad Brown has lost 97 horses through the claiming box. That’s about one every other week or so. Most claiming trainers never claim 97 horses in their career. Of those 97, on the day they were claimed away Chad Brown hit the exacta with 52 for a 54% hit rate in the exacta.

The surprising thing is how many Maiden Claim horses were claimed from him, 39. 8 won and 9 placed for 21% win rate and a 44% exacta rate.

The 97 claims had 59 favorites in the exacta for a 61% hit rate that were claimed away as the favorite.

We can see how the claiming game is played at the very top. Many trainers will claim the favorite or the second favorite. 97 claims were made from 40 trainers. When the race went official 97 horses moved to a new barn and those 40 trainers handed over $3,979,000 to the owners of those 97 runners almost $ 4 million.

29 of the 97 claims won their last race with Chad Brown. Total purse money on these 29 wins was $1,243,000. His owners cashed for 60%, $745,000. Chad Brown makes about 10%, $74,000. It is the claiming move we always here about. They won the race collected the purse money and lost the horse to a claim of $40,000. They cashed both ways on the claim and the purse.

Dave Jacobson has claimed 11 of Chad Brown runners. $393,500 exchanged hands.

Linda Rice claimed 9 of Brown’s runners and 8 of them were favorites. The other one hit and paid $15, telling me Linda can handicap. 4 of these runners she claimed for herself. 7 of the 9 were Maiden Claimers.

Danny Gargan claimed 7 from Brown. Midwest Thoroughbreds purchased 5. They claimed 4 for $40,000 each and 1 for $25,000 for a total of $175,000.

Chad Brown has many high end stables and owners. Klaravich Stables and partnerships went to post 517 races, around 129 races a year. 34 were claimed away, around 8 or 9 a year. Danny Gargan claimed 4. $1,185,500 came from the claiming box to Klaravich Stables and partnerships and 34 horses had changed homes.

From my side of the betting window claim 1 sprint or route is a play. I scroll Aqueduct and Santa Anita every day for claim 1. I have 2 filters; if the horse is the favorite I pass the bet and if he won his last race that is also a pass. I had to pass all 7 of Linda Rice’s claim 1 horses.

Then I check who did they claim from which is the third thing I handicap if the horse gets through the 2 very effective filter’s.

One claiming trainer claiming from another claiming trainer I avoid if I can. I will not bet claim 1 if the horse has switched barns 4 or 5 times. One reason is odds; claiming a favorite and the horse’s next race he will be the favorite again. Another reason is bottom level claiming events and the care that is given to each horse.

I know a groom in Maryland named Ken who worked for Gary Capuano and other claiming trainers. I asked him what did he do with his horses that he knew the horse liked and he said I clean their feet. Horses hate that build up of wet matter in their hoofs. When it dries it can lead to problems. He pulled out the tool he cleaned their feet with. Cleaning their feet makes them happy. He said he would do this for other horses he liked when the other groom’s were not around. Chad Brown would probably order a dozen Kens.

Chad Brown’s education and working for two top trainers at the beginning of his career with lameness and horsemanship and his successes has lead to the 97 claimed away horses. All of those 40 trainers who claimed from Chad Brown know that his horses are well taken care and have pedigree. The focus of Chad Brown’s entire time in racing has been the horse’s legs. For the new owner the dream sets in, maybe I just claimed a stakes runner.

Gulfstream Saturday Chad Brown has two entries and one is with jockey Javier Castellano.

My bet today is Gulfstream Race 12 # 6 Favorable Outcome is a 3/1 Morning Line favorite in a 6 ½ furlong Stakes race. With owner Klaravich Stables and W. H. Lawrence Chad Brown and Javier Castellano in sprint races at Gulfstream are 175-84-48% exacta hit rate.
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Just a note about posting a reply on this blog.  We welcome all horse racing and handicapping discussions. Unfortunately we had to change the settings due to too many Spam posts. In order to stop these we changed the settings.  Post once and when that is approved any future replies you post will automatically publish.  Apologize for the inconvience.  Thanks spammers.
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edbain.com news:

We now have 9 Jockey-Trainer Exacta Reports Completed:
New York Circuit: (Includes Aqu-Bel-Sar)
Southern California Circuit: (Includes DMR-LRC-SA)
Kentucky Circuit: (Includes CD, KEE, ELP, TP)
Gulfstream
Laurel
Tampa
Monmouth
Parx
Woodbine
Ed Bain’s track specific thoroughbred Jockey-Trainer Exacta Report Statistics provides the Ace In The Hole for All Handicapping and covers 4 to 5 years of statistics, 2013 thru 2017 that are separated by Sprint (7 furlongs and under) and Route (7 1/2 furlongs and more). Each circuit is in an individual made to order book that lists the Jockey’s name alphabetically, the Trainer’s name, the number of tries, the number of wins and places (1st or 2nd) finishes and the exacta percentage for every jockey who ran a race during these years currently at the above circuits.
This weekend (Sat and Sun) Save 15% on all edbain.com publications at the following link Book Store by entering Coupon Code 15OFF on checkout.

Let me know if there are any Jockey-Trainer Reports that you would like and I’ll make this book for the same price as the other circuits. Allow 2 to 3 weeks to get ready. Though I pull the stats from my database I have to arrange these in a spreadsheet and manually calculate which is the reason for the time.

 

Speed

The Daily Racing Form was created by Frank Burnell who was a sports writer in Chicago. In 1894 the product he sold was result’s charts. In 1905 Burnell took each running line from the charts and put the horses last 10 races in chronological order with last race first. That innovation changed racing and establish speed as the only game in town since 1905.

For maybe 15 or 20 years I bet speed. My approach was to understand and memorize the past performance block and every symbol in the Racing Form. The only information offered at every track was a track program, the Racing Form or a $1 dollar tip sheet.

There are two past performance blocks; one displays the times of the lead horse through each point of call and the other past performance block shows where the horse was located and the lengths behind at each point of call.

My Approach for years was to figure out what the times are for each horse at the half mile mark or the second quarter where the cheap speed pealed off and the real running started on the turn in sprint races.

I did this by lengths behind. A horse travels around a 1/5 of a second per body length and 5 fifths is one second. If a horse ran 46 and my horse was 5 lengths back I would add to that 46 seconds 5 fifths or 1 second making his time 47. If he was 7 lengths back he ran 47.2 then I would figure out the last quarter time and enter it on the form.

The horse that had the lead at the ½ mile at 46 seconds and change and the horse that could finish the last ¼ in 26 seconds would be a key bet for the exacta or trifecta.

If my horse could run that time of 46 seconds at the half mile and he ran slower than 26 seconds the last ¼ I would add into the exacta every horse that could finish around 26 seconds for the last ¼ mile and hope he lasted. The lengths behind was fun to play however, it was a one dimensional approach that put me on fast horses on the lead and low odds.

I could walk into any track, purchase the form and handicap each race by the speed of the horse. Over time I had to improve. This approach lost about 10% and it was ok with me because every thing I owned was purchased from hits at the track. If I walked in with $100 and lost $10 bucks I could put up with that kind of losing as an entertainment cost as long as I cashed and hit a signer every once and awhile or just had a good day.

When I was betting speed I purchased a microfiche viewer and ordered The Daily Racing form charts on microfiche and sat down and did par times by class and distance.  One thing stood out, a par time of 22.0 45.0 1:10 subtract 22.0 from 45.0 and the second quarter was 23.0, one second slower than the first quarter. Subtract 45.0 from 1:10.0 and the final quarter was 25.0, two seconds slower than the second quarter. The times were 22 23 25 for each quarter and each quarter is slower than the previous quarter. Only Secretariat ran each quarter faster than the previous quarter when he won the triple crown going 1 ½ miles at the Belmont Stakes. Speed players would get all wonky with that stat.

I made a change to the pars. I used 100 as par. If the horse ran 5 lengths back from par then his number was a 95. If the horse was 7 lengths back he was a 93. I did this for each quarter mile. It was a little more refined way to bet speed however, it was the slow down from quarter to quarter and how horses won that is different from just playing front runners and speed figures. I still lost 10%.
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Ed’s Play today
Aqueduct Race 7, the #9 horse Gabriela is 5/2.  This is a Todd Pletcher Debut 1 in a Sprint favorite in a Maiden Special Weight at Aqueduct.  Pletcher has went to post 15 times at Aqueduct on Debut 1 Sprint and he’s hit the exacta 9 times for a 60% exacta hit rate.  Pletcher’s horse has to be a favorite. On his non-favorite Debut 1 Sprints in Maiden Special Weights at Aqueduct he is 17-5-21% exacta stats as a non-favorite.
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Just completed the Jockey-Trainer Exacta Report for the Kentucky Circuit that includes Churchill, Keeneland, Ellis Park and Turfway.  This now brings the total books for these jockey-trainer reports to 8 Circuits: New York (AQU-BEL-SAR), Southern California (DMR-LRC-SA), Gulfstream, Parx, Laurel, Tampa, and Woodbine. We’ve had several requests for a special that include my online reports with these Jockey-Trainer stats so we have set up these specials at the following link: edbain.com

 

 

 

Mark Casse Is A Go-To Play

Trainer Mark Casse grew up in Ocala Florida on Cardinal Hill Farm. His father states he was foaled not born. Casse says when other kids were coloring in coloring books he was reading the Racing Form. I believe him. At 8 years old he went to Woodbine for the first time. His father was one of the founders of the Ocala Breeder’s Sales Co. He learned the breeding business so well he was running his fathers horse farm at 15. At 17 Mark Casse was a licensed trainer in Massachusetts.

Casse understands racing from a horse breeder’s perspective. His very young years growing up on a breeding farm supplied Casse with a college education on confirmation, pedigree and horse racing and Casse knows what confirmation contributes to running and winning.

The only way you can identify good conformation is to be schooled by people who know what it is. Casse took this hand on education straight to the top of racing. Along the way he met Harry Mangurian who owned the Boston Celtics. Mangurian signed Larry Bird and Mark Casse.

Harry Mangurian owned Mockingbird Bird farm in Ocala and he hired Mark Casse to train his racing stable. He had 900 horses on his farm. I could just about hear the meeting in my mind between Mangurian and Casse. It went something like this: Mark I want you to pick 50 of the best horses on the farm and race them. I am sure Mark Casse said OK with a smile. He probably saw 10 runners who had good confirmation while talking to Mangurian. Mangurian and Casse raced and won constantly.

Later Mangurian sold his farm to Eugene Melnyk and he left horse racing. Melnyk was in the pharmaceutical industry. He also owned the Ottawa Senators, a professional ice hockey team. Wind blew some luck in Mark Casse’s direction that day when Melnyk offered Casse the same training position that he had with Mangurian.

Today Casse has many very wealthy owners like John Oxley who has won 39 million dollars on the track and Gary Barber who was the executive producer for the movie Seabiscuit. Because Casse has very high end owners that means he has to produce.

Woodbine is located in Toronto Canada. At one time I was a regional manager for a Photography company and they wanted me to move their office so I did. I moved them to an office that was about a 10 minute ride to Woodbine racetrack.  I know because after about 50 trips to the track it never took more than 10 minutes to get to Woodbine.

Woodbine is a beautiful well run track. Mark Casse fit in perfectly. He moved there in 1998 although he still calls Ocala home.

I am an exacta player so all stats are for the exacta. Woodbine opens next month. Here are some interesting facts about Mark Casse at Woodbine.

Over the past 4 years Mark Casse went to post 2,265 times and he was in the exacta 820 times for a 36% exacta cash rate that’s about 566 races a year.

Post position can have an effect on a race and most players only talk about the outside post position as a bad post. Mark Casse loaded 299 runners in post position 3. He hit the exacta with a 129 for a 43% strike rate. Post position 1 is his second best draw with 275-104-38%. Post position 7 he is 221-73-33%, his lowest exacta strike rate. So post position does have an effect on the out come of the race. 10 percentage points higher is significant from post 3 to post 7.

What race Casse enters his horse on a race card is interesting. Race 1 he has started 189 horses and he hit with 85 for a 45% exacta hit rate. Casse went 213-85-40% in the second race of the day and the third race carded he went 201-87-43%. His entries for race 5 are 202-62-31% in the exacta. These 3 early races are the only 40% stats from the race card.

Mark Casse in race 1 and post position 3 could be a really good exacta bet.

I have always thought of Casse as a miler.  His stats say he is not. At 1 mile he sent 167 horses to post, he hit the exacta 39 times for a 23% strike rate. I have to admit I have made a lot of uneducated bets at a mile on Mark Casse at Woodbine based on my belief Casse is a superior miler. Casse’s 1 mile is actually 7 furlongs which is 660 feet less than a mile; he went 443-180-41% at 7 furlongs.

Weight is an issue that is not really understood and how it affects the outcome of a race. Casse is at his best when his horse is carrying 121 pounds where he had 412 races, was in 163 exactas for a 39% exacta stat. At 117 ponds Casse had 159 runners and 48 exactas for a 30% strike rate. I have always thought the less weight the faster a horse will run. Class may be the weight equalizer.

Patrick Husbands is Mark Casse’s Go-To rider. Casse and Husbands went 964-418-43% in the exacta stats. Casse and Husbands are a little better in sprints; they have 520 races with 238 exactas for a 46% hit rate. There are 164 race days for Woodbine this year. Patrick Husbands and Mark Casse get about 241 runners a year, about 1 ½ runners per day so there is opportunity even with a lot of favorites to evaluate and bet or pass.

Jermaine Bridgmohan had 39 races for Casse, 9 exactas hits for a 23% exacta rate. He rode 1 favorite for Casse and that represents only 2% favorites. Patrick Husbands rode 380 favorites from his 964 races for Casse and hit 231 exactas for a 61% strike rate. This means 39% of his runners were favorites. This stat says Mark Casse knows when his horse is ready to run a big race and hit the exacta.

Mark Casse gets pedigree horses and class is where the pedigree shows up. Claiming events are his lowest strike rate with 214-70-33% however, in Maiden Claim races Casse is 211-84-40%. I would watch out for Maiden Special Weights runners dropping into a Maiden Claim races which is the biggest drop in racing.

When you have a trainer that all his horses have good pedigree there are 2 class levels that dominate Casse’s efforts; Maiden Special Weights which Casse is 680-246-39% and Stakes races which he produced 513-173-34% exacta strike rate. 22% of Mark Casse runners are in Stakes races. You can see through his stats that 1,193 of the 2265 starts were from Maiden Special Weights and Stakes races. 52% of all runners are from those 2 class levels that is really impressive.

Mark Casse may hit everything at a very high percentage but as a player and a guy that has a, Go-To play I want to know how he produces on all his runners that went off at 3/1. Casse sent 127 starters to the gate and hit with 50 for a 39% strike rate for 3/1. I wish Woodbine was open now because Mark Casse is a Go-To exacta play.
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I have a play at Santa Anita today, Race 10, the #5 horse Ice Kat, 8/1 odds.  A Richard Baltas Lay 4 in a Route.  Overall his stat are 37-15-40%. This is a pattern play for Layoffs.  Every race has a higher percentage of exactas than the race before in the 4-race Layoff form cycle.  He starts out at 29%, goes to 30%, to 36%, then his best stat 40%.  Inside these numbers Baltas had 37 races and 29 of these were non favorites which he scored with 10 hits in the exacta.  It is sort of unusual; you get a stat that is much better than the favorite.
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Passing Races

The track I perform best at year after year is Aqueduct.  It is the premier claiming track in the U.S. for me. When all the big stables go to Gulfstream for the winter meet and take their high class pedigree horses with them, all the hard knockers remain for the cold and blustery days of racing at the big A and the claiming begins.

Claiming a horse out of a race can put you into the game almost instantly. You can have your first race within 14 days with your newly claimed horse. Once a horse is claimed I get a count on every trainer’s results for the 1st, 2nd 3rd 4th race after a claim separated by sprint and route.

Why a trainer claims a horse is not an issue. I have a hit rate on him as the horse goes through his first 4 race form cycle with this trainer. I am handicapping a specific statistic and a visual pattern at the same time.

At Aqueduct on Saturday there are 7 claim 1 sprint or route claims. This will be the first race for this trainer and the first race in the 4 race form cycle.

A total of 16 horses and their trainers are in the 4 race claim form cycle.

When I handicap I use two filters to cut that 16 down to a smaller amount of claiming trainers and their horses.

  1. If the horse won its last race.  I pass that horse as a key horse bet. If the horse won its last race it has already had it’s best race though there is one exception; if a horse was laid off on a win and is now returning from a layoff he can qualify as a bet.
  2. If the horse is the morning line favorite, then the horse is out as a bet except when the morning line is 3/1 or higher. I pass all horses at 5/2 and lower as a key horse bet.

Seven horses won their last race which leaves 9.  By the way because I passed these stats does not mean they will not hit the exacta.  I just find other races that are more appealing. Here are the stats in the exacta for all the runners at Aqueduct as well as the patterns and handicapping.

All stats are for the exacta.

Race 2
# 3 horse, The Great Samurai has a Morning Line (M/L) of 5/2. John Toscano has a Claim 2 in a Route race with stats of 30-10-33% at Aqueduct.

The 5/2 M/L is the reason for the Pass.

# 4 horse, Lost Iron has a 3/1 M/L.  Linda Rice is on a Claim 3 in a Route race with stats of 37-14-44%. A great stat however Linda had to lay the horse off. At Aqueduct on Claim 2 in a Route race at 1 mile she is 20-1-4-25%.  For a horse to be a key horse for me to bet, I handicap to win not to place so with a 20-1 record I will pass.

# 5 horse Peculiar Sensation trained by John Toscano is on a Claim 2 in a Route race which has stats of 30-10-30%.  Kendrick Carmouche and John Toscano at 1 mile at Aqueduct.  Here are their stats; 23 were sprints with 13 hits in the exacta for a 56% hit rate in routes.  They are 11-1-9% in Routes.  Toscano is a Sprint Claiming Trainer and not a Route Claiming Trainer. In pattern playing it’s important to understand that to be a pattern A has to connect to B.  The 11-1-9% says the connection is not there for the pattern to complete so I’ll pass!

# 6 horse Star Empire is 12/1.  Abigail Adsit is on a Claim 4 in a Route race and her stats are 14-2-14%. The final race in the form cycle Adsit tops out at 15% on Claim 3 route. I hit Abigail Adsit a few weeks ago on this blog on a Spike Play and she paid $14 to win.  For this stat, she is a pass.

Race 4

# 3 horse Hay Jabber Jaw is 15/1. Roberto Diodoro is on a Claim 3 in a Sprint race and his stats are 60-23-38%.  His exacta stats on Claim 4 Sprint are 38-19-58%.  The race before Claim 2 sprint, Diodoro is 47%. The Claim 3 Sprint is a good stat but is a bounce compared to the form cycle so I will pass.  

Race 5
# 3 horse, Alaapatique
is 4/1. Denis Lalman on Claim 2 in a Sprint race is 2-1-50%, a pass.

# 5 horse, Professor Snap is 4/1. Antonio Arriga is 5-2-40%, a pass.

# 6 horse, Buddy Anthony is on a Richard Schosberg Claim 1 in a Sprint race with stats of 15-5-33%.  Schosberg claimed this horse from Brad Cox, another claiming trainer. Because the horse won it’s last race it’s a pass.

Race 6

# 8 horse, H Man is 3/1. Jeremiah Englehart has a Claim 4 in a Sprint race with stats of 40-21-52%.  Jockey Trevor McCarthy and Jeremiah Englehart are 8-1-12% so this is a pass.

Race 7
# 2 horse, Will Did It is 5/1. John Toscano is on a Claim 1 in a Sprint race with stats of  61-17-27% in the exacta, a pass.

# 3 horse, Major League is 5/1. Rudy Rodriguez is on a Claim 1 sprint with stats of  101-54-53%.  The horse Won the last Race, pass.

# 6 horse, War Eagle’s Return has a morning line of 7/2. Carlos Martin is on a Claim 1 in a Sprint race.  His stats are 15-2-13% and a pass.

Race 9
# 3 horse, Slam Chowder
. A Bruce Levine trained horse on Claim 1 in a Sprint race is 54-16-29%. Bruce Levine has no races with jockey Joe Rocco Jr. so this is a pass.

# 6 horse, Exchange Secrets is 5/1. Trainer Gary Gullo is on a Claim 1 in a Sprint with stats of 77-32-41%. This horses last win was in 2016 so this is a pass.

# 7 horse, Perin’s Pride is 6/1.  Trainer Diodoro Robertino is on a Claim 2 in a Sprint race is 91-43-47%. Robertino started out West, I believe Turf Paradise then he went to Southern California and started claiming horses.  Then Robertino traveled to tracks in the Midwest and on to the East. His stats for Claim 1 in a Sprint race is 42%. He is a little better at Claim 2 in a Sprint race, 47%.  Kendrick Carmouche and Robertino are 3-0. Kendrick is a very good jockey at 6/1. I will take him as a bet because of the improvement expected on Claim 2 Sprint. He will be a key in an exacta bet for me.

# 8 horse, Lady Constance has a M/L of 5/2. M. Kantarmaci is on a Claim 1 sprint and is 0 wins so this is a Pass.

There is visual handicapping with the 4 race form cycle. As much as analyzing a statistic there is also handicapping other factors in every race. Knowing how to pass races is an art compared to the stat. I guarantee some of the races I pass will hit the exacta. The real improvement in handicapping is when you do not bet every race you handicap.
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Sober Up Aqueduct Sober Up

Today, Saturday February 3 at Aqueduct has carded small fields. I have seen jockey’s make mistakes and the rail birds start yelling to the jockey, sober up jockey sober up.

The Aqueduct race card has four races with 6 horse fields, one race with 7 horse fields, two races with 8 horse fields and one with a 10 horse field.

Small fields produce low odds on the race favorite. As the field size gets smaller the favorite has more of a chance to hit the exacta and the exacta becomes unattractive to bet because of low payouts. Here are some stats on the favorite in each race. All stats are for the exacta.

Race 1
The # 2 horse odds are 1/1 David Donk Claim 1 Route 6-1-16% Donk/Caramouche-9-0. A 6 Horse Field.

Race 2
The # 2 horse odds are 7/5 Todd Pletcher Lay 1 Sprint with favorites at Aqueduct 11-5-45% Pletcher T Franco 26-8-31%. A 6 horse field.

Race 3
The # 5 horse odds are 9/5 David Cannnizo Won Last Race Favorite 9-6-44% Cannizo D/Rocco Joe Jr. Zero races at Aqueduct. A 6 horse field.

Race 4
The # 5 horse odds are 3/1 Wesley Ward Lay 1sprint Aqueduct 10-4-40% Ward/Davis D. Zero Races at Aqueduct. An 8 horse field.

Race 5
The # 1 horse odds are 8/5 Philip Serpe Lay 1 sprint 14-4-28% Serpe/Franco M 7-0. A 7 horse field.

The # 1A horse odds are 8/5 Philip Serpe Debut 1 Sprint 14-1-7%Serpe/Lezcano A., 3-0. A 7 horse field.

Race 6
The # 2 horse odds are 9/5 Jason Service Lay 2 Route Aqu. 17-5-29% Service/McCarthy zero Races at Aqu. An 8 horse field.

Race 7
The # 6 horse odds are 5/2 Rudy Rodriguez Claim 1 Sprint Favorite at Aqu. 26-17-65% Rodriguez/Caramouche K. Zero Races at Aqu. An 8 horse field.

Race 8
The # 4 horse odds are 8/5 Kiaran McLaughlin Lay 1 Route Favorite Aqu. 9-4-44% McLaughlin/Bravo Joe zero races at Aqu. A 6 horse field

Race 9
The # 3 horse odds are 3/1 Linda Rice Lay 1 Sprint favorites at Aqu. 23-12-53% Rice/Alvarado J. 9-4-44%, a 10 horse field.

Aqueduct sends 57 runners to the races on a Saturday. That is a mistake. I have to react like a rail bird and yell out. Sober up Aqueduct Sober up.

I do have a bet at Santa Anita in Race 9, the # 11 horse Bowie.

This is a Down the Hill 6 ½ Furlongs Turf event. Richard Mandella has a Lay 1 Sprint down the hill of 34-15-44%.

Richard Mandella’s Detail Page (courtesy of edbain.com’s on line racing stats) for 1st after a Layoff in a Sprint Race on Santa Anita’s Down Hill Turf.

Mandella has his go to jockey up, Flavien Prat.  Together they have sent 49 runners down the hill, hit 16 exactas for a 32% strike rate.

The horse has 2 starts the first on the dirt he came in 9th out of ten runners. His second start was on the turf and he came in second out of 13 runners in the race.

Mandella layed Bowie off and entered him into today’s race, an allowance optional claim. I also think Mandella will not risk putting him up to be claimed. I think Mandella is going for the win in an easier spot. The horse has excellent pedigree; Malibu Moon and Unbridled’s song. I hit Mandella and Prat a couple of Saturdays ago down the hill.

Results:
We should congradulate the Aqueduct Morning Line Maker.  He had 4 wins, 2 places, one scratch, and 2 ran out.  It looked like a formful day for the favorite and that is the reason I passed all races at Aqueduct.

Santa Anita, Race 9, the 11 Bowie won and paid $8 to win.  The Exacta paid $106.60.  The fifth favorite came in at 12/1.

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Santa Anita Race 7

#9 is a Philip D’ Amato Debut 1 Sprint going down the hill. D’ Amato has started 133 debut 1 sprinter’s and he hit the exacta with 42 for a 31% exacta rate.

Copy of edbain.com online racing stats

These are really good numbers. This Race is a down the hill sprint turf race in a Maiden Special Weights. D’ Amato has started 13 runners on debut 1 sprint down the hill and hit the exacta with 6 for a 45% hit rate. 11 were Maiden Special weight races and he hit 5 for a 45% exacta rate down the hill.

Copy of Trainer D’Amato’s Detail Page for his Debut 1 Sprint Races Downhill Turf

Joe Talamo is in the irons. He has started 186 races with D’ Amato and hit the exacta with 65 for a 34% cash rate.  24 have been down the hill 8 hit a 33% exacta hit rate.

Copy of Jockey Joe Talamo’s Detail Page from edbain.com online racing stats

Joe Talamo is a very good jockey. He has hit the exacta with 101 different trainers. Talamo is one of those jockeys’ that makes me wonder why he is not known as a top jockey. Overall he has 1,432 races and hit the exacta 442 times for a 31% exacta rate. Talamo hits with 12 trainers that he rides for with a plus 30% exacta rate. He is one of the Southern California jockey’s that I look for when I have a bet to add him into an exacta or single him as key horse bet. At Santa Anita Talamo has 3 trainers that produce a total of 127 exactas; Ron Ellis 98-35-36%, John Sadler 75-28-37% and today’s trainer Phillip D’ Amato.

Talamo has not had that big horse that elevates his name and highlights his abilities and moves him into the top 5 jockey’s in the country however, Talamo numbers are not eye opening, just a constant 30% exacta rate. I believe he is a top jockey and that is good enough for me.

Does any one have The Racing Form? Can supply me with the Tomlinson numbers for Distance and Turf for More Than Ready and Empire Maker.
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