I found a horse to bet through a trainer exacta stat. So what should I bet?
The double? I have a great exacta stat and if he wins I could single him in the double. It should be between the favorite and the second favorite in the second race. That could be a good bet.
Maybe single him in a pick three and then do a spread. Single my stat with the two favorites in the next race and all in the last leg of the pick three.
I could do a pick four; one with two with all in the 3rd leg and all in the final leg and if I hit maybe have a really good day however, to do that will run up the cost of the bet because I now have to look at how much to spread the bet to have a shot at cashing in serial race pools. Odds and payouts are an influence on my selections. If I have a single I can spread the bet in the races I need to.
The double is out.
The pick three is out.
The pick four is also out.
The reason is I have a trainer exacta stat is so I do not look at serial races. It is tough enough to hit the race. I think I have an advantage because I also have to do a spread to hit that exacta.
Cost and the amount of horses needed for the spread is always an issue. Well that doesn’t sound so bad. My hit rate is 25%. I like to bet trainer stats that are 40% or more in the exacta as an anchor. If the stat can come in 1st or 2nd I will cash 1 out of every 4 bets I make from a 40% plus trainer exacta stat. Can I bet this stat when the trainer is trying to hit with this horse and can I do a spread big enough to the other runners to fill the exacta and cash my bet.
I have an 8 horse field and I have a standard exacta key bet as one with three horses and three with one. It looks like two of the top four runners will take the exacta. The other four are 10/1 odds and higher and have major knocks against them.
My stat horse is the second favorite in this race at 3/1. The favorite is 8/5. A $2.00 exacta box would cost $6 bucks each way for my standard key bet of one with three and three with one for a total of $12.00? I could box the four horses and it would cost $24 and any two of these four can come in first and second and I hit the exacta. The exacta will pay from $28 to $80 if it hits. These payouts happen every day. So can I hit this race?
Most likely if I hit the exacta it will pay around $35 to $45 dollars.
A four horse trifecta box is out. If the favorite and second favorite have to be included in the bet the trifecta will not pay much.
I could bet win/place if my 3/1 shot comes in I make $8.00 for every $2.00 I bet. If my horse places that will pay about $4.00 for every $2.00 I bet.
I like the exacta key as a bet, one with three in an eight horse field for a $2 bet costs $6.00. Turn it around three with one is also $6 dollars for a total of $12. If I was going to bet the same amount for a four horse box for $24 I could put the other $12 into my exacta spread and hit it multiple times.
And these are my betting menu choices; an exacta one with three and three with one.
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