Question: Ed, I bought the exacta book for NY. Please give me some advice as to how to use it.
Here is my way of handicapping the jockey trainer report. The report is track specific. I start with this graph to show me the odds and the favorites on each race. I do not start my handicapping on Race 1 Horse 1.
I start with pen and paper and I make a copy of the program (this one is for Aqueduct on Saturday 4/21) and enter the stats for the favorite.
This takes around 20 minutes to do and it tells me what the favorite’s odds are and what races interest me that has a go-to jockey. I handicap these first. I am looking for a play. I want to find a 3/1 morning line favorite or a 5/2 morning line favorite. When the crowd bets they will make the odds drop 2 odds levels from the morning line and they are still good exacta bets.
After I find one stat that has this 3/1 or 5/2 morning line favorite from here I enter all the stats for every jockey-trainer running today. This takes around a half an hour. I always make sure I am on Aqueduct and sprints if it is a sprint race. The left side of the report has that information on every jockey. It is easy to be on the wrong track or distance so this is something that I always check.
From the four races that have lower odds than 3/1 or 5/2 on the favorite I know I will Not have a key bet. In race 1 or race 3 the horses odds are too low on the favorite and I would expect their odds to drop another 3 odds levels. These offer too little value if I would include them in a bet.
Three races have no jockey trainer stats.
One race has a jockey trainer stat of 7-0
Aqueduct Race 9 the # 4 has John Velazquez with trainer Pletcher and their Jockey-Trainer Exacta stats are 36-15-42%. The only morning line favorite with a go-to jockey and a 5/2 Morning Line. The horse is 5-4-80% in the exacta in stakes races. I think he will be bet down to around 8/5. Now that I found this Morning Line 5/2 favorite I then enter all the jockey trainer stats for race 9 to find fillers for the exacta. The handicapping starts on race 9. This is the only key bet favorite at Aqueduct that I will bet on Saturday.
Laying out the stats this way allows me to find favorites. This may be that the morning line is a little off and a stat points this out.
In the races that have no stats on the favorite I enter all jockey trainer stats for all the runners to find a non favorite that has a go to jockey stat these are very good bets. I look for stats that have a jockey going back on or on for the first time on this horse. I look mostly for big stats with 10 or more exacta’s and 40% or more.
Race 1 # 5 Sprint 1/2 Velazquez John / Pletcher Todd 66-23-45% is a pass at a 1/2 M/L. This is too low to bet, $3.00 if he wins. There are only 3 level of odds left. Even with a go to jockey they will offer no value for an exacta. I will pass and hope he hits to keep his stats high.
Race 2 # 6 Route 9/5 Cohen D. / Diodoro R. No stats.
Race 3 # 5 Route 7/5 McCarthy T. / Hills A. No stats
Race 4 # 5 Sprint 8/5 Franco M. / Pletcher T. 26-8-31%
Race 5 # 3 Route 5/2 Franco M. / Rodriguez R. 31-9-29%
Race 6 # 7 Sprint 3/1 Maragh R. / Martin C. 8-3-38%
Race 7 # 9 Route 3/1 Maragh R. / McLaughlin K. 7-0
Race 8 # 1 Route 2/1 Lezcano J. / Rodriguez R. No Stats
Race 9 # 4 Sprint 5/2 Velazquez J. / Pletcher T. 36-15-42%
Race 10 # 12 Route 5/2 Velazquez J. / Toner J. 4-2-50%
This approach to handicapping puts my mind right on a stat that is a favorite that has decent odds. 3/1 Morning Line favorite is my favorite go-to jockey stat. In other words I look at the races and locate the race that has the favorite at 3/1 and a go-to jockey. I will bet odds in the exacta who is a favorite down to 8/5 as the lowest odds to bet at post. Once the crowd bets the morning line has no impact what so ever.
Just as the horse has a starting gate to get him into the race. This is how I start every day to find one play
This is a fun way of playing. You will see races you do not belong in, and races that you will bet and will know by the results you should have passed and races that you bet and you cash over and over for the same reason, a jockey-trainer go-to stat. This is how you learn to handicap, thru trial and error. Sort of like science.
Here are some other jockey/trainer exacta stats at Aqueduct today;
Race 1 # 3 Eric Cancel / James Ryerson Route 10-5-50% Route 15/1
Race 4 # 3 Dylan Davis / Ed Barker 11-7-64% Sprint 10/1
Race 6 # 4 Manuel Franco / Chris Everhart 47-15-32% Sprint 5/1
Race 7 # 8 Manuel Franco / Phil Serpe 9-4-44% Route 9/2
Race 8 # 3 Rajiv Maragh / George Weaver 15-6-40% Route 4/1
Race 10 # 4 Manuel Franco / Raymond Handel 12-5-42% Route 6/1
Race 10 # 11 Jose Lezcano / Bill Mott 16-8-50% Route 10/1
We have Jockey-Trainer Exacta reports available for these tracks. A total of 16:
Southern California (includes Del Mar, Los Alamitos and Santa Anita)
New York (includes Aqueduct, Belmont, and Saratoga)
Illinois (includes Arlington, Hawthorne)
Indiana (download only)
Louisiana (includes FG, Louisiana, Delta Evangeline) download only
Prairie Meadows (download only)
Texas (includes Sam Houston, Lone Star, Retama)
Kentucky (includes Churchill, Ellis Park, Keeneland, Turfway)
These are offered in .pdf for immediate download to your computer upon purchase.
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