4 Race Form Cycle

I track the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th race after a Layoff, Claim, Debut and Won last Race. Every bet I make is from these 4 races. The last bet I made with speed was in 1992.

When a trainer lays a horse off and returns him to the track, most want to schedule races every 14 to 21 days.  A 4 race cycle takes around 2 to 3 months when things are going good.

There are 86 entries on Saturday at Aqueduct.

edbain.com
List of 86 entries at Aqueduct for Saturday 12/16/17 Courtesy of edbain.com

25 are moving through the Layoff 4 race form cycle which is 29% of all runners.

22 are moving through the Debut 4 race form cycle.
There are two Maiden races.

17 are in the Won Last Race form cycle.

17 are traveling through the Claim 4 race form cycle.

There were 25 Layoff stats at Aqueduct. These produced a spike play in Race 5 where the number 4 horse, trained by Abigail Adsit is on 1st after a layoff in a sprint race is  6%,  31%, 0% 0% and in today’s race she is on a 2nd after a layoff in a sprint where Abigail is 19-6-31%. Her horse’s Morning Line (M/L) is 15/1 and my stats show she is all or nothing. All 6 from the 19 tries were wins.

There are 22 Debut horses moving through their 4 race form cycle. In Race 6 the number 13 horse is a Linda Rice trained horse. Rice’s Debut percentages of 13% 34% 28% and 29%. Her Debut 2 Sprint numbers at Aqueduct are 84-29 35%. Her horse’s M/L is 8/1.

17 Won their Last Race. In Aqueduct race 8 the number 5 horse is trained by Ollie Figgins III. His percentages on Won Last Race are 139-28-20%. He is 21-2-9% in stakes races, 0 for 5 at six furlongs and no stakes wins outside of Charlestown. Ollie is a Charlestown trainer. His horse’s M/L is 8/5.

There are 17 Claim Stats.  In Aqueduct Race 9 the number 1 horses trainer is Rudy Rodriguez who has a Claim 1 Route stat that is in his 4 race form cycle. His numbers are 25%, 15%, 23%, and claim 4 is 24%. His stats on Claim 1 Route are 92-23-25% at Aqueduct. Rudy Rod has claimed 46 horses at Aqueduct which is half of the horses he claimed.  He is an Aqueduct claiming trainer. His M/L is 6/1.

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Results From the 4 plays today,

Linda Race in Race 6 scratched her horse.

In Race 4 Abigail Adsit hit her spike play, 2nd after a layoff in a sprint, paid $14.40 to win, and $2 exacta paid $61.00.

In Race 8, the 5 horse Oillie Figgins horse from Charlestown ran out.

Race 9, the 1 horse A Rudy Rodriguez Claim 1 Route at Aqueduct won and paid $8.00 to win and $2 exacta paid $95.50.

4 Replies to “4 Race Form Cycle”

  1. I got home early from the otb. aqu race 9. I actually bet the 1 horse in that race. If i am correct he also has an exacta hit rate of 45%, 46 in claiming races and 54% at aqu. ML 6-1– i took a shot. woo hoo for me–maybe i am getting the hang of this. It’s a 12 horse field and not yet confident enough to do the all out trifecta thing so just did the win/place thing. Irregardless, the stat thing eliminates quite a bit of the subjective thinking. That has to be a good thing.

    1. That is a really good key horse. 1st or 2nd he’s a 45% hit rate and what made me select this was Claim 1 Route Rodriguez stat is 3 of his go-to jockey’s Irad Ortiz, Jose Ortiz and Javier Castellano are not at Aqueduct. And Rodriguez put Junior Alvarado on and their numbers at Aqu in Route Races is 32-26-50% in the Exacta. So he’s a go-to jockey also just maybe not as known as the other three.

  2. Superb form cycle handicapping today at Aqueduct. Hope you were able to hit on Race 8 with the longshot winner by avoiding the underlay 4/5 favorite. Congratulations.

    1. I didn’t have anything that I was comfortable with in the 8th race so I passed. But I’m glad you noticed that I was trying to warn people on a favorite that looked really weak. He dropped 6 odds levels from his morning line. I knew he was going to be so overbet that it would be difficult to find value in the race because of an overbet favorite.

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