2 Years More or Less By Ed Bain

23 months ago I felt a small lump in my neck. I knew what it was. Within a week it had grown enough that I could feel it without pressing on it. Two weeks later I could see it. My primary care doctor sent me to an Ear Nose and Throat Doctor. He took a sample with a needle. A pet scan found it.  He told me I had stage 3 squamous cell cancer.

The E.N.T. doctor sent me to an Oncologist who diagnosed me with Stage 3 squamous cell cancer. It is in my lymphoid glands in my neck, in my larynx and the base of my tongue.

I half heard what he said next. I thought I had cancer in one place and then he got down to it. We can extend your life. How long? I asked. 4 years he said. Can an operation give me a better chance? No it is inoperable. I felt the butterflies of fear. The treatment is Chemotherapy and Radiation. It takes about 2 months to complete.

I knew what this meant; the treatment was going to make me sick. If I don’t do it?  I asked. 2 years more or less he said. The doctor said we have to send you to a dentist and he will pull any teeth that aren’t in good shape. Pull my teeth. Also you will have to have a colostomy type bag attached to your stomach for food and water. You won’t be able to swallow or drink water. The nurse left. The Doc said we are making an appointment with the Dentist right now. We also need to make a mask for administering the radiation. He showed me the mask.

I did not hear much of what he said after that. The nurse came back in and said we can get you into the Dentist a week from today. Ok, we made a future appointment with the Oncologist and then we left.

Susan was with me through the whole presentation. I know she was having a very difficult time with what had just happened. I said to her I’ll know what to do in a day or two trying to slow her anxiety.  I said that was the worst sales job I have ever seen and I have been in sales all my life. Susan agreed as I blamed the messenger but saying this helped both of us.

When I had discovered the lump I did a lot of research on cancer; it’s treatment by the A.M.A and alternatives that I could consider. What I did not realize is how radical cancer treatment is and I thought I had cancer in one place not three. 4 years estimated life extension then cancer will come back no cure. If I do the chemo and radiation the effects on me would begin on day one.  Once I am in the cancer process I am now officially sick.  Then I’ll get better and about 4 years from now it will happen again. The reason is chemo and radiation kills the immune system and allows another type of cancer to develop. This is probably the reason for the 4 year diagnosis.

The next day I cancelled the appointment with the dentist and the oncologist.

I only want to be sick once. 2 years, I told Susan. She was relieved and said whatever I decided she would agree with, and then we cried together then alone.

The problem was the term life extension and not a cure and the truth is I have a choice. Either one is not a choice as the results are the same; get sick once or twice. That’s the choice “oh man”.

I decided on medical marijuana in oil form as treatment. I know what I am facing as treatment with the oncologist and Medical Marijuana. I have not stuck my head in the sand over my diagnosis. I am well aware of what I am facing however, the oncologist is really only giving me a little more time and the process did not give me any reason to get my hopes up; part of that time I will be sick and it will still be about cancer when it recurs. It is a scary decision to make because it is time that I am making a decision on.

I know the side effects of chemo and radiation as well as the time needed to recover. Regret is another reason I chose the Medical marijuana way. If something happens and 2 years turns into “Why did I do chemo and radiation” it is not risk free. I have cancer in three delicate places.

Being a professional horse player helped make my decision because I analyze and bet my own statistics. I did not think the treatment process for gaining time was worth a long shot bet. Saying I would be better off with chemo and radiation than waiting it out?

We lived in Florida where they were still locking up people for smoking pot. Susan and I decided to move to the closest warm weather state that offered medical marijuana that also offered Obama care for Susan who has five auto-immune diseases. Because Susan could not get health care and I could not get medical marijuana in Florida we moved to a state that was not playing politics with our heath. New Mexico was the closest.

There are medical marijuana dispensaries in Albuquerque. Cancer diagnosis approval is generally quicker in states that offer medical marijuana and it took around 2 weeks to get approved by the state.

The cannabis oil comes in a syringe with no needle. I do not smoke it. I squeeze out a line of the oil about the size of a grain of rice on a piece of bread and swallow it. The oil is 60% to 70% THC. When I was a pot smoker I knew that street pot was about 3 ½ percent THC. In oil form it is very powerful. When smoking marijuana it goes instantly right to your brain and lasts around an hour. In oil form it is absorbed into my blood stream and into my immune system to fight cancer. This is where cancer gets started. I do get high taking the oil this way though in a much different way than smoking it. In oil form it is minus the mental confusion of smoking pot and the oil lasts all day.

I have been using it for about a year now, twice a day. The tumor on my neck has grown slightly and my voice is almost gone however, I am in no pain and no feelings of having the worse flu ever.

I have not been free of what cancer can do to my body. I lost a lot of weight, fast, and did not realize it. Susan said Ed you are losing weight. She explained she has an auto immune problem with her pancreas. Her pancreas does not produce enzymes to break down food to supply her body with nourishment and energy so she takes enzymes so she can digest food. She said Ed you are eating the same as always so I think I can stop your weight loss by you taking these same enzymes to break food down. I started taking them and my weight loss stopped and I regained lost pounds. I am in horse racing. I shook my head. I just hit a long shot. I took that as a positive towards the reference to more rather than less.

Weight loss from cancer is a serious issue. It affects organs that are cancer free. I hope I only have to deal with cancer and not end up in the hospital for a problem due to weight loss. Weight loss was solved by the person I love. Susan through her knowledge of what she has to deal with on an every day basis every time she eats with one of her five auto immune diseases. That was help and that was what Susan was trying to do. She was trying to help me. It made me think of odds again. How often is something like that going to happen? Thank you Susan. I was struck that the oncology doctor did not warn me about weight loss.

When I had the pet scan the person injecting me said This is a solution with sugar in it. Sugar is food for cancer. It will come out for something to eat and we can get a good image of it. The oncologist did not warn me about that either. I am a sugarholic. I immediately stopped ingesting ice cream, doughnuts, candy, cokes everything sugar. Maybe this slowed the cancer down.

I believed the oncologist diagnosis of 2 years more or less. On August 3rd it will be 2 years. This puts me into the more side of the diagnosis.

Maybe with cannabis oil I can get what chemo and radiation can get me, 4 years. Maybe that is what the cannabis oil can do. Maybe the pain and misery will be 4 months instead of 6 or 2 months instead of 4. It is a very different mental out look on living with an illness that strikes 1 out every 3 women and every other man. Soon they predict every other person in the U.S. will get cancer. That is an epidemic. Over 160 million people in our country are going to be diagnosed with cancer. I don’t think that cancer is in the gene’s. I think it is environmental, in our food and water.

I have gone over every stupid thing I have said or done to anyone and wish I had never said or done that. Fear wrecks a day. Even with Susan around me I still would rather handle cancer alone. She is going through the same things I am going through. I told Susan when the slide is here I will tell her. I will continue to hide the outer bands of this hurricane until it hits. I am 2 years into my diagnosis. My horse racing stats on edbain.com were down for several months and that was the scariest thing that happened because of the cost to get them back up. I did not realize the focus publishing the stats demands and that is a help for my mental outlook, but not as much help as Susan.

I am a professional handicapper. Just like horse racing I need to handicap the results of what I have done. I wanted time, but time that is free of the effects of cancer for 2 years. This  would be the only way I can measure my decision. 2 years is here and I have to say I hit that bet and that is a good reason to feel that I did the right thing for me.

Maybe in the diagnosis the oncologist knew that I had around 2 years before I got sick.  That means that the chemo and radiation and the 4 years is a little misleading, it’s 2 years.  The A.M.A. had just lowered the statement of we can extend your life for 5 years. Their results for chemo and radiation were so poor; they lowered the life extension pitch to 4 years. This looks like a trend to me.  They will lower life expectancy again in the future as millions of our people are getting cancer. The politicians in Washington are trying to take away our health care and Medicare. For me I feel I have the right kind of help and understanding of living with a bad beat like cancer. I have Susan and she has proven to me what help is. I’ll accept that I will only be sick once.
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The edbain.com  website stats are back up and running. We have the once a year 2 For 1 Special running just in time for the Saratoga/Del Mar meets.

The expense to healing and to maintaining a website that has horse racing statistical information is great and Susan and I would appreciate everyone who reads this blog to help us by buying a book or the online stats.

Thank You, Ed & Susan

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What is a Class Dropper?

Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claim is a class drop however, that drop does not indicate if the horse will win. This is the easiest class drop to spot as a play.

Class is the level of competition this horse has run in. Is dropping in class a viable approach to bet a horse or is class a secondary factor?  I bet only trainer statistics on layoffs, claims and debuts and jockey-trainer statistic as a primary factor. That’s sort of the Swiss army knife of handicapping For me class is a secondary factor.

Although in 1989 when Kent Desormeaux raced at Laurel and Pimlico and set the record for most wins in a year, 598. I am sure I bet a boat load of Desormeaux’s droppers during that year. He was in every exacta or trifecta I placed a bet on.

A horse will run at higher class levels at the beginning of a horses’ career as a 2, 3 or 4 year old. A horse moving up in class can be much easier to find and bet than a class dropper. Class droppers are always talked about or pointed out by horse players and they are over bet because of the personal publicity.

Age and injuries have to be acknowledged on a class drop. Betting on a class dropper has to be from experience if you don’t have a statistic like a trainer’s percentage of his horses dropping from stakes to Optional claim. Then that bet is a guess. Keep in mind that for me this type of bet is a horse that I am adding in to fill out an exotic wager and not a bet as a key horse for the exacta. This add in horse can be easy to include with my key bet and impossible for me to bet as a key horse.  About the only thing I look at in a dropping horse is the difference in purse size from race to race.

I consider that 10% of all races are random. There are many races that nobody knows why a horse wins, about 10% of them. The speed players hit races I can not and I hit races they do not see.

I had trainer statistics on up one class level and down one class level and could not find a key horse to bet.  I also had statistics on up two class levels and down two class levels and found out these statistics were a non-factor as a primary reason to bet. A horse dropping in class or going up in class had no impact on the random 10%. This is the way that I compare the ability a trainer stat has too random. With a 10% win rate for droppers it can not overcome the problem that random offers because random is without rules or methods and you cannot have an advantage if I am betting random dropping horses whose trainer can not get above 10%.

This is from a grinder. The long term problem betting dropping horses is the loss rate of 90 losers to 10 winners from 100 bets, about a months worth of plays.  The number of run outs per hundred bets will stop you from betting. Every 100 races there will be 20 to 30 losers in a row. Every week there is a 10 to 15 race losing streak. Averaging 1 winner every 10 races sounds easy to accept as a play however, the problem is because you lost 9 in a row does not mean the next race he will win. Any player trying to cash on 10% as a living will get the horse dropping knocked out of them.

In the long run the grind will get you however; horses dropping in class can be a good secondary factor long shot play to include with my key horse in an exotic wager.

The layoff is the best way to bet a horse dropping in class because it is a decision the trainer is making when they lay the horse off then when to return the horse from a layoff and the trainer decided what class level to drop that horse into. The same applies to a horse that is claimed and dropping in class. Like the layoff, this is a trainer move and each of these moves is an odds play. The layoff horse has higher odds to bet than a claimed horse because most handicappers view layoffs as a negative.

Generally the way most handicappers bet is if a horse has a lot of races class becomes a factor. When the horse is now dropping in class they guess can he run back to that race he ran eight races ago? This horse has won at a higher class levels and today the horse is in a lower claiming race. The drop may be big but is it a class move or is the drop needed for this horse to be competitive at this class level.

Eight races ago may have been as long as ten months ago in actual time and today he is in a race that says maybe the drop is a negative instead of a reason to bet.

The tote board can be handicapped for a class dropper. I look at the morning line to the actual odds and then how the odds move up or down. I look for patterns.  A dropper is never a reason for me to place a bet. I bet one key horse with 3 filler horses in an exacta, a total of 4 horses for the exacta.

My filler selections can come down to the fourth versus the fifth favorite. It could be the 15/1 dropper with a small start trainer and he has his go-to jockey riding today. This is a good add in horse. Maybe he can hit one of those ten winners in a hundred races.

Trying to connect a race year ago to today’s race and believe the horse can repeat that effort makes me a skeptic. Even if it was 5 races back, for me it is a no bet. The horse can’t keep up at $12,500 claimer and now is in a $8,500 claimer. The same question is there.  Can the horse win on the drop? Is he a class play?  I am inclined to doubt all accepted opinions.

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Ed Bain author of new Horse Racing Novel
Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines

Bain has been betting professionally on thoroughbred horse racing since 1994 using the statistics that he has compiled.

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Good News for all edbain.com subscribers.………
Looks like the online PPs (the racing stats) will be back up and running next week and could be as early as Monday.  This rebuild and maintaining this database is costly.  The programmer will continue to work on the site until all parts of the database have been completely updated.  I’m asking everyone who use these statistics in your handicapping decisions to help towards this cost by purchasing a copy of my new novel

Libraries, Yellow Cheese Sandwiches and 38,880 Running Lines or any of the 20+ Jockey-Trainer Exacta Reports that we offer. Any purchase is appreciated. Ed Bain