Jockey Switch


The jockey switch is one of the most ignored trainer moves in all of sports. I can’t imagine Baseball, Football, Hockey or Basketball not going over personal switches and comparing each players statistics and questioning Why did management change players. The only sport that does not discuss personal moves is Horse Racing. The fun of handicapping is the people in racing, the Jockeys and Trainers. I have been calculating statistics for over 25 years. I have detailed stats on all of them and I feel as if I know all of the jockeys and trainers personally even though I view them only thru a betting statistic.

The jockey switch was first really explained well by Mark Cramer when he explained the Class drop Jockey shift. Mark tried to tell us that a switch to a higher percentage jockey and dropping in class is a significant factor as a bet and Mark was correct. Here are the jockey switches today at Santa Anita.

Race 1
# 1 Trainer P. D’Amato switched to Joe Talamo who is 65-31-48% in the exacta from Tyler Baze who is 38-12-36% in the exacta. A switch from a go-to jockey from a go-to jockey.

# 6 Trainer Richard Mandella has a go-to jock on this first time starter with Mike Smith 30-12-40% in the exacta. The problem is Mandella on Debut 1 in a Route race at Santa Anita is 16-0, no hits in the exacta.

Race 2
# 2 Trainer Jeff Mullins switched from Cory Nakatani who is 3-2-66% to Tyler Base who is 138-40-29%,  At 7/5 odds, this is a no play for me.

# 4 Trainer Mathew Chew switched from E. Roman who has 0 races to Tiago Pereira who is 12-6-50% in the exacta. At 5/2 he could be a play however, I like big stats, with a lot of tries and wins so I’ll pass the race.

Race 3
# 5 Trainer Bob Baffert has three runners in the race. Baffert at one time supplied jockey Martin Garcia with a ten year supply of hits in one year. Martin Garcia had 270-110-41% in the exacta at Santa Anita. Baffert has Victor Espinoza on his runner today and they are 29-12-41% in the exacta.

Race 4
# 2 Trainer Peter Miller switched from Victor Espinoza 58-26-45% to Flavien Pratt 13-4-31%. What will prevent me from betting is only 13 starts.

# 7 William Spawr switched from Tyler Baze who is 23-11-48% in the exacta to Mike Smith who is 14-4-29% which will prevent me from betting for the same reason as Peter Miller.

Race 5
# 3 Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer switched from Drayden Van Dyke who is 29-3-10% to E. Roman who is 14-7-50% in the Exacta. He cashed 7 with Roman and 3 with Van Dyke.  I need more stats before I make a bet.

# 6 Trainer Kristin Mulhall switched from Tyler Baze who is 22-3-14% to Martin Pedroza who is 52-20-38% in the exacta, a go-to jockey switch however the horse has nocks against it as a play.

Race 6
# 1 Trainer Peter Miller switches from Tyler Baze who is 88-42-48% in the exacta to Flavien Pratt who is 33-15-45%. A go-to to go-to.

# 7 Trainer Bob Baffert switched from Rafael Bejarano who is 91-34-37% in the exacta stats in sprints to Drayden Van Dyke who is 5-1-20%,

# 10 Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer switched from Joe Talamo who is 11-6-55% to Rafael Bejarano who is 138-68-49%. In this race Rafael ended up on trainer Hollendorfer horse instead of Baffert’s.

Race 7
Has no significant jockey switches.

Race 8
# 7 Trainer John Sadler switched from Victor Espinoza whose exacta route stats are 107-41-38% to Flavien Plat who is 6-2-33% in the exacta.

# 8 Trainer Doug O’Neill switched from Mario Gutierrez who is 225-67-30% to Rafael Bejarano who is 101-35-35%. A go-to to a go-to jock.

Race 9
# 1 Trainer Richard Mandella switched from Joe Talamo who is 19-6-30% to Flavien Prat who is 95-36-38% in sprint exacta stats, his go-to jockey.

# 8 Trainer John Sadler switched from Flavien Prat who is 6-4-67% to Tyler Baze who is 57-22-39%, and one of his go-to jockeys.

#9 Trainer Mark Glatt switched from Tyler Baze who is 52-18-35% to Kent Desormeaux who is 9-2-22% in the exacta.

I will take Race 9 # 8 John Sadler switching from Flavien Prat to Tyler Baze 57-22-39% in the exacta.
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Down the Hill

Santa Anita has the best sprint race in America, 6 ½ furlongs down the hill on the turf. Most days the track cards one or two races down the hill. There is no group think with the jockey’s where they all wait for the turn and run to the lead. It is all out from gate to wire fractions that make me laugh because they are so fast. Visually the race is easy to see how they string out and then seem to gather at the part of the track that crosses over from turf to dirt and back to turf and the chaos it seems to create. Then the closers add more drama into basically the most exciting race to be involved in with a bet.

To me Santa Anita’s 6 ½ furlong down the hill on the turf is a jockey’s race. I have Jockey exacta stats on the 6 ½ furlong Down the Hill Turf Sprint Races. My play is Santa Anita’s Race 9 is the #9, Flavian Pratt and Richard Mandella Down the Hill.

Santa Anita Race 9 Jockey Exacta stats down the hill

#1 Frey M.           23-4-17%
#2 Quinonez A.   50-16-%
#3 Elliott S.          86-12-13%
#4 Gutierez M.    130-33-25%
#5 Roman E.       No Stats
#6 Talamo J.       230-40-17%
#7 Nakatani C.    95-20-18%
#8 Bejarano R.    221-92-42%
#9 Prat F.            238-75-31%
#10 Espinoza V. 104-22-21%
#11 Pena B.        34-0-0%
#12 Baze T.         291-83-28%
#13 Roman E.     No Stats
#14 Smith M.       78-30-38%

My key horse with Flavian Prat and Richard Mandella placed and the favorite came in first.  Prat and Mandella keyed an exacta that paid $43.80.

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